IMF experts flag added inflation risk: La Niña
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OVERNMENTS across the world should focus on protecting the purchasing power of citizens as the La Niña weather phenomenon is expected to further increase inflation in 2023, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In a Blog, IMF economist Christian Bogmans, Chief of the Commodities unit Andrea Pescatori, and Senior Economist Ervin Prifti said food prices will primarily be affected by the La Niña. The extreme weather phenomena will place additional upward pressures on commodity prices on top of the impact of the continuing war in Ukraine and rising energy prices. “The risk of food prices increasing again rather than declining during the next couple of quarters remains high. And if these risks weren’t enough, the impact of rising interest
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rates on food insecurity could be mixed,” the experts said. “That’s because a resulting slowdown in economic activity may reduce personal incomes. Combined with still elevated food price levels, this could increase the number of food insecure people,” they added. They noted that the La Niña is expected for the third straight year in 2023. This is similar to three-year periods which occurred during the first world food crisis between 1973-1976 and again between 1998-2001. Last week, National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa said the highest inflation rate on record using the latest data series of the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) was 10.7 percent in January 1999 (full story: https:// businessmirror.com.ph/2022/12/07/
inf lation-easing-plan-lacking-its-8-innovember/). The IMF experts said higher international food prices are estimated to add 6 percentage points to consumer food inflation in 2022. Locally, should this materialize and if the country’s year-to-date inflation of 5.6 percent as of November would be the full year inflation rate, the country’s inflation could exceed 11 percent next year. “However, the passthrough to higher domestic retail food prices could take six to 12 months—another reason why, in addition to the recent weakening of emerging market currencies, many people will have to wait for relief from lower commodity prices,” IMF said. See “IMF,” A2
BusinessMirror
Monday, December 12, 2022 Vol. 18 No. 61
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BREACHES FULL-YEAR ‘21 B By Cai U. Ordinario
@caiordinario
ORROWINGS made by Philippine residents and nonresidents or external debt in the January to September period this year has already exceeded the full-year amount recorded in 2021, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).
BSP data showed external debt stood at $107.9 billion as of endSeptember 2022, up by $218 million from the $107.7 billion level as of end-June 2022. This amount has already exceeded the $106.428 billion recorded in the whole of 2021. It may be noted that 2021 saw the country’s external debt exceed $100 billion for the first time since 2009. “External debt refers to all types of borrowings by Philippine residents from non-residents following the residency criterion
for international statistics,” BSP explained. The data showed the increase in the debt level during the third quarter of 2022 was due to net availments of $3.1 billion, partly offset by $1.2-billion negative foreign exchange (FX) revaluation. The amount was also offset by the $893-million transfer of Philippine debt papers issued offshore from non-residents to residents and $778 million negative prior periods’ adjustments. See “External debt,” A2
LOWER AMORTIZATIONS SLASH 10-MO DEBT SERVICE TO P929.7B By Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas @jearcalas
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HE country’s debt service as of end-October contracted by an annualized rate of 11.7 percent to P929.663 billion due to lower amortization payments, latest Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) data showed. Latest Treasury data showed that the national government paid P123.178 billion less in the January-to-October period compared to the P1.05-trillion debt service in the same period last year.
Likew ise, Treasur y data showed that debt service in the month of October alone plunged by more than half to P39.817 billion from last year’s P89.066 billion. The bulk of the government’s debt service payments were accounted for by amortizations which reached P496.502 billion during the 10-month period. BTr data showed this represented a decline of 27.2 percent from the P681.957 billion posted in the same period last year.
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 55.6110
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FEAST FOR A KING With soaring food prices blamed for the higher-than-expected inflation, putting the traditional fare on the table for the Christmas Eve feast has become a challenge for Filipino households. Higher meat prices, especially, have made the bill for ham and lechon (roasted pigs) out of reach for many. Still, lechon vendors, such as this one in La Loma area in Quezon City, reported having their hands full for the Christmas rush. Prices for lechon now range from P8,000 for small ones and P20,000 for the big ones. ROY DOMINGO
‘Birth pains’ afflict PHL govt’s new e-Travel system By Ma. Stella F. Arnaldo
@akosistellaBM Special to the BusinessMirror
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S the bulk of tourists in the country start arriving for the holidays, the planned volt-in of the arrival systems of different government agencies continues to be problematic. Passengers landing at Manila’s airport are still dealing with an unfriendly e-Travel website and confusing queues, despite the relief prom-
ised under phase 2 of the new arrival scheme. Speaking to the BusinessMirror, traveler Bebeth Timbol said the new e-Travel form, on the one hand, “was easy enough to fill up, but it was a long form with a lot of unclear questions. You can fill it out on your phone and you just have to show the [resulting] QR Code to the same people, as what happened when the One Health Pass (OHP) was used.” Timbol arrived on December 3 at terminal 2
of the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (Naia) at 7 pm on a flight from Osaka. She had previously traveled in October, and used the OHP upon arrival. Rajah Tours Philippines president Jose C. Clemente III, on the other hand, said a number of his balikbayan (homecoming Filipino) clients have complained, that the form “is difficult to fill out on the computer.” Balikbayans often make up the bulk of the arrivals during the Christmas season, coming from
the United States, Canada, Europe and the Middle East. Prior to the pandemic, almost 19 percent of balikbayans arrived in December. Data from the Department of Tourism (DOT) showed arrivals of Philippine passport holders permanently residing abroad have already started climbing from 39,674 in September; 47,126 in October; to 48,709 in November. (Philippine passport holders usually exclude overseas Filipino workers.) See “Birth pains,” A2
n JAPAN 0.4070 n UK 68.0512 n HK 7.1425 n CHINA 7.9843 n SINGAPORE 41.0959 n AUSTRALIA 37.6375 n EU 58.7141 n KOREA 0.0423 n SAUDI ARABIA 14.7914
Source: BSP (December 9, 2022)