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PERFECT STORM FOR GLOBAL RICE SUPPLY
Dearth in harvest, El Niño and export tightening threaten staple grain supply from Africa to Asia A BARANGAY official, seen in this April 26, 2020, file photo, distributes rice to residents in need during the pandemic in Barangay San Andres, Cainta, Rizal. BERNARD TESTA
By Aniruddha Ghosal & Evelyne Musambi
F
non-basmati rice creates a domino effect, with other countries following suit. Already, the United Arab Emirates has suspended rice exports to maintain its domestic stocks. Another threat is if extreme weather damages rice crops in other countries.
The Associated Press
RANCIS NDEGE isn’t sure if his customers in Africa’s largest slum can afford to keep buying rice from him.
Prices for rice grown in Kenya soared a while ago because of higher fertilizer prices and a years-long drought in the Horn of Africa that has reduced production. Cheap rice imported from India had filled the gap, feeding many of the hundreds of thousands of residents in Nairobi’s Kibera slum who survive on less than $2 a day. But that is changing. The price of a 25-kilogram (55-pound) bag of rice has risen by about a fifth since June, going from the equivalent of about $14 to $18. Wholesalers are yet to receive new stocks since India, the world’s largest exporter of rice by far, said last month that it would ban some rice shipments. It’s an effort by the world’s most populous nation to control domestic prices ahead of a key election year—but it’s left a yawning gap of around 9.5 million metric tons (10.4 tons) of rice that people around the world need, roughly a fifth of global exports. “I’m really hoping the imports keep coming,” said Ndege, 51, who’s sold rice for 30 years. He isn’t the only one. Global food security is already under threat since Russia halted an agreement allowing Ukraine to export wheat and the El Niño weather phenomenon hampers rice production.
people in some of the poorest nations at risk. The world is at an “inflection point,” said Beau Damen, a natural resources officer with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization based in Bangkok. Even before India’s restrictions, countries already were frantically buying rice in anticipation of scarcity later when the El Niño hit, creating a supply crunch and spiking prices. What could make the situation worse is if India’s ban on
El Niño threat
AN El Niño is a natural, temporary and occasional warming of part of the Pacific Ocean that shifts global weather patterns, and climate change is making them stronger. Scientists expect the one underway to expand to supersized levels, and, in the past, they have resulted in extreme weather ranging from drought to flooding. The impact would be felt worldwide. Rice consumption in Africa has been growing steadily, and most countries are heavily ON July 17, 2023, a Kadiwa market, a marketing initiative by the Department of Agriculture, was set up in front of Pasay City Hall, offering rice at a price of P25 pesos kilo. NONIE REYES
Soaring prices
NOW, rice prices are soaring— Vietnam’s rice export prices, for instance, have reached a 15-year high—putting the most vulnerable
Continued on A2
RICE is sorted in a factory in Makhu, in the Indian state of Punjab, on March 12, 2021. Countries worldwide are scrambling to secure rice after a partial ban on exports by India cut supplies by roughly a fifth. Even before India’s restrictions, countries already were frantically buying rice in anticipation of scarcity later when the El Niño hit, creating a supply crunch and spiking prices. A VARIETY of milled rice prices are showcased in a retail store in Las Piñas City, January 16, 2023. NONIE REYES
AP PHOTO/MANISH SWARUP
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 56.7020 n JAPAN 0.3888 n UK 71.4956 n HK 7.2318 n CHINA 7.7898 n SINGAPORE 41.8650 n AUSTRALIA 36.3857 n EU 61.3232 n KOREA 0.0427 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.1149 Source: BSP (August 25, 2023)