BSP poll: Private economists see 5.4% inflation in ’22
‘Close borders, cut Omicron exposure risk’ By Bianca Cuaresma @BcuaresmaBM
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R I VATE economists see inf lation averaging at 5.4 @caiordinario percent in 2022, para llel with the Bangko borders Sentral ng LOSING the country’s Pilipinas’ (BSP) latest forecast is one of the most immediate on consumer price growth courses of action the govern- for the year. ment must take to prevent the latResults of the BSP’s survey est Covid-19 variant, Omicron, from of private sector economists for Aureaching Philippine shores, accordgust 2022 showed higher mean ing to local economists. inf lation forecast for 2022 T he new var iant is a threat, at e s p e 5.4 c i a lpercent l y w it hfrom t he 5.3 holpercent id ay s in the July 2022 survey. The pricoming up and more foreigners vate economists’ forecasts align being a llowed to travel to the with the 5.4-percent forecast Philippines, De La Sa lle UniverannouncedMar by the BSPOplas in their sit y economist ia Ella latest monetary policy meeting told BusinessMirror. onholidays August 18. The usually bring in Analysts, however, were not Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) yet conv inced t hat inf lat ion who are eager to spend Christmas By Cai U. Ordinario
THE WORLD ›› A9
POLIO CASES IN US, UK AND ISRAEL REVEAL RARE RISK OF ORAL VACCINE
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will recede to within-target for 2023. The sur vey showed that private economists’ mean inf laforecast next yearforat 4.2 withtion their loved for ones, while percent. eigners living in temperate regions is atomore pessimistic view usuallyThis want relax in tropical than the BSP’s 4-percent forecast countries like the Philippines. This forinflux 2023 of asOFWs announced in August. year’s is expected to The target band for next yearwere is still be heavier since many of them at 2totocome 4 percent. unable home for the holidays “Analysts in December 2020.expect inflation to breach the upper-end ofprotect the gov“My recommendation is to ernment’s target range in 2022, the borders. Do not allow people with with risks to the inflation outlook a history of travel to countries with tiltedcases to the lingering positive toupside enter,”amid Oplas said. inflationary pressures brought “We should be more restrictive. [We global supplyin chain dishaveabout to be]by more protective terms ruptions, second-round effects, and of our measures.” continued depreciation of the peso Oplas said that while this will be againsttothe US industries, dollar,” thethis BSP’s a setback some report read. is a fair measure considering that “Meanwhile, inflation this could help prevent placing is theexpected to settle above the upper country in another strict lockdown,
end of the target in 2023 and decelerate to within the target range in 2024. Most of the analysts anticipate the BSP to furthercan tightwhich, she said, the economy no en monetary policy settings and longer afford. increase thethat reverse “It is better we do repurchase protective rate by a range of to 150 preventive measures25 than get basis expoints in 2022, with the possibilposed again. We have a lot to lose,” ity of taking a pausedoinitits tightOplas said. “We should now so ening cycle in 2023 and 2024,” that we can open just before Christ-it added. mas. If it gets contained, we can open In terms of balance of risks, it again.” analysts pointed the following: Ateneo Center fortoEconomic Rethe still elevated global food and search and Development (ACERD) oil prices Director amid global supply chain Associate Ser Percival disruptions brought about by the K. Peña-Reyes said closing the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war; country’s borders would be effec-as well the continued Covid-19tive butasshould still adhere to the related lockdowns in China and standards set by the World Health local weather disturbances and the Organization (WHO). higher prices of selected goods and What is needed, Peña-Reyes told services as a delayed reaction to risthis newspaper, is for travel restricing input costs. tions to be put in place swiftly and
n Tuesday, August 23, 319 Monday, November 29, 2022 2021 Vol. 17 No. No.52
Analysts also said the continued depreciation of the peso against the US dollar, due in part to the aggressive policy hikes by the for government torate be proactive in US Federal Reserve, and secondimposing them. round effectsinstances such as higher transPrevious when the port costs and wage hikes may country had the opportunity toalso imcontinue push inflation upward pose traveltorestrictions did not prefor the the spread year. of Covid-19. That was vent On the other hand, they mainly because the decision was obnot served that the recent easing of made immediately, he said. global oil prices is a possible source “Kung papatay patay [If we’re of downside riskcaught to the flat-footinflation slow] and we get outlook. ed, [that’s risky] We were too reOther downside risksbefore. cited active instead of proactive are expectations of policy rate We should learn from that,” Peñahike by the BSP, resurgence of Reyes said. “It’s a delicate balancing Covid-19 cases, fears of an imact. We need to push testing and pendingtoglobal economic recestracing be properly informed sion, along with weaker-thanof our decisions. Blanket/shotgun expected global recovapproaches could economic have dire conseery due to the slowing down of quences on the economy.” China’s economy. See “Omicron,” A2
P25.00 P25.00 nationwide nationwide || 22 sections sections 20 20 pages pages ||
NATL GOVT BORROWINGS NG DEBT SEEN TO SWELL FOR 10 MOS BY DIPYEAREND TO P2.75T TO P14.63T n
By Bernadette D. Nicolas
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Omicron risk ‘Proactive, spurs revival resilient’ ’23 of quarantine rules in now PHL budget
@BNicolasBM
By Bernadette D. Nicolas @BNicolasBM
HE national government’s HE national gross government’s borrowings as of outstanding end-October shrank debt is expected to by almost 6 percent further balloon to year-on-year P14.63 trilliontoby P2.75 trillion. the end of next year.
This would be almost 9 percent Latest data from the Bureau of the higher than the projected debt stock Treasury showed that the governlevel at P13.43 trillion by the end of ment’s gross borrowings during the this year, based on the documents 10-month period fell by 5.99 percent from proposed from the P2.92 trillion aP5.268-trillion year ago. national budget by the With only twosubmitted months left for Department of Budget and Manthis year, the latest figure is already agement to to the89.6 19thpercent Congress equivalent of on its Monday. P3.07-trillion borrowing program. Former President ended Broken down, gross Duterte domestic borhis term with the national governrowings from January to October ment’s stock trillion, soaring to anothsettleddebt at P2.23 down by er record-high of P12.79 trillion as 5.08 percent from P2.35 trillion of end-June this year as the country in 2020. needed borrow more to fundwas its The to bulk of the amount fight against Covid-19 pandemic. sourced from Fixed Rate Treasury Next(P1.19 year’strillion), gross borrowings of Bonds followed by the national government is seen short-term borrowings from Bangto P2.207 trillion, or ofBSP which 75 kohit Sentral ng Pilipinas (P540 percent or P1.65 trillion will come billion), Retail Treasury Bonds/Prefrom local sources while the remainmyo Bonds (P463.3 billion), Retail ing P553.5 billion will be generated Onshore Dollar Bonds (P80.84 bilfrom lenders. lion).foreign In the same period, there was Inaterms of domestic borrowalso net redemption of Treasury ings, the government plans to isBills amounting to P43.94 billion. sueNet almost P1.6 trillion in Fixed debt redemption means Rate Bonds another thereTreasury were more debtsand repaid comP54.05 billion through the issuance pared to the amount borrowed durof Bills. ingTreasury the period. On external the governMeanwhile, sources, gross foreign borment is eyeing to source almost half rowings in the same period also of the amount bonds and other contracted by from 9.7 percent to P518.7 inflows at P265 Meanwhile, billion from last billion. year’s P574.4 billion. program loans and project loans This was raised through global will account for P219.2 billion and bonds (P146.17 billion), program P69.3 billion, respectively. loans (P139.98 billion), euro-deThe government borrows to nominated bonds (P121.97 billion), cover its budget deficit and fund a project loan (P86.41 billion), and its spending requirements. yen-denominated samurai bonds The (P24.19budget billion).deficit next year is pegged to reach P1.45 trillion, See “Borrowings,” A2 narrower than this year’s P1.65trillion program. A budget deficit occurs when the government disbursements exceed its revenues. Apart from borrowings, the government funds its spending requirements through revenues, which are seen to reach P3.63 trillion next year. Disbursements, on the other hand, are projected to hit P5.086 trillion.
PESO EXCHANGE RATES
with House By Samuel P. Medenilla @sam_medenilla
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By Jovee Marie N. dela Cruz
PEOPLE walk past the mural of Gat Andres Bonifacio at Manila City Hall Underpass. The country will celebrate the 158th birth anniversary of Filipino revolutionary hero Gat Andres Bonifacio on Tuesday, November 30. ROY DOMINGO
OVER 3-M FARMERS LISTED FOR P75-B COCO LEVY FUND
THE GREAT COMEBACK Students attend a flag-raising during the opening of classes at the San Juan Elementary School on Monday, August 22, 2022. Millions of students wearing face By Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas datingceremony its registry following the them. This allows everyone to see programs as President Duterte
masks streamed back to grade and high schools across the Philippines Monday in their first in-person classes after two years of coronavirus lockdowns that are feared to have worsened one of the world's @jearcalas enactment of the Coconut Farmwho are listed in the registry and if is expected to sign the industry most alarming illiteracy rates among children. AP/AARON FAVILA
ers and Industry Trust Fund law. farmer doesn’t see his name then he ORE than 3 million Rosales explained that about shall coordinate with the PCA imcoconut farmers and 500,000 coconut farmers and mediately,” he explained at a recent workers are now regisworkers were added to the PCA’s dialogue with coconut farmers. tered with the government’s reg2018 list that had about 2.5 million “On the other hand, if people istry, which serves as the basis coconut farmers and farm workers. would see names on the list and By Andrea E. San Juan Commerce andnext Partnership under watch. for the number of people to be The PCA’s step is toheld conthey Pascual’s think they are not coconut virtually on Monday. Cayetano said she earlier covered by the utilization of the duct an exclusion-inclusion profarmers or their details are incorRADE Secretary Alfredo The Trade chief underscored asked Finance Secretary P75-billion coconut levy fund. cedure by making the updated rect, they can report it toBenjathe PCA E. Pascual has asked the that the foreign chambers have min Diokno at action,” the Committee Philippine Coconut Authority farmers’ registry public, providforE.immediate he added. to ratify the Roel Realways proddedthe the DTI on theto on Ways hearing, (PCA) Senate Deputy Administrator ing everyone opportunity The and PCAMeans official noted “if that gional Comprehensive Economic country’s accession to the re[Department of Finance] DOFlist M. Rosales said about 3.11 million check the veracity of the list, Rothe completion of the initial Partnership (RCEP), that gional trade deal as companies will be open farmers to considering a coconut farmers andnoting farm worksales added. of coconut registryfor would prospective investors consider under the chambers’ ambit usulimited time only tax-free imporers have been registered with the “The list will be posted in public be just in time for the expected the Philippines’s accession to the ally takewhere this into consideration tation of health equipment and I government since it started upspaces people can easily see rollout of coconut levy-funded regional trade deal before investbefore they make final decisions aligned this with the president’s ing in the country. on investing in the Philippines. SONA statement that we need to “It is very important . . . I’d “Because their own people, improve access to specialty hosn USlike 50.4600 n JAPANthat 0.4374 n UK 67.2329 n HK 6.4722 n CHINA 7.9013 npitals SINGAPORE 36.8968 n AUSTRALIA to emphasize the RCEP the companies in their respective all over the country.” be ratified or be confirmed by the jurisdictions, are asking them beSince specialt y hospitals Senate because we’ve always been fore they consider investments in will need equipment, Cayetano asked with prospective investors the Philippines,” added Pascual. wanted to know what the DTI’s by foreign chambers about how Pascual said this after Senadirection will be, i.e., “would you soon we’ll be receiving ratificator Pia Cayetano asked about be open to explore and to possition of RCEP,” Pascual said at industry clusters, particularly bly propose incentives for these the Organizational Meeting of Health and Life Sciences, which sectors?” the Senate Committee on Trade, are among the DTI’s priorities See “DTI,” A2
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DTI CHIEF PRODS SENATE ON RATIFYING RCEP SOON
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development plan in early 2022. Rosales said the PCA will not stop updating its list of coconut farmers and enjoined them to register in order to reap the benefits of the decades-long idled coconut levy fund. “We will not stop at 3.1 million. We hope that more individuals will register in our coconut farmers registry,” he said. The updating of the coconut farmers registry is mandated by Republic Act (RA) 11524 or the Coconut Industry Trust Fund Act. See “3-M farmers,” A2
NTER NATIONA L concerns @joveemarie over the possible spread of the more infectious Omicron CoHouseprompted of Representatives vid-19HE variant the govon Monday received the “proernment to reimpose mandatory active andquarantine resilient” P5.268facility-based for all trillion National Expenditure Proarriving passengers in the country. gram (NEP) for 2023, which lawmakActing Presidential spokesperers continuing booster sondescribed Karlo B. as Nograles announced shot to revitalize the economy. on Sunday that the Inter-Agency Budget and SecreTask Force forManagement the Management tary Amenah F. Pangandaman said of Emerging Infectious Diseases the first proposed national budget (IATF) suspended the implemenof President Marcos tation of its Ferdinand ResolutionR.No. 150Jr. is designed to withstand future A (s.2021), effectively imposing risks, challenges stricter protocolsand forshocks. all inbound The proposed P5.268-trillion travelers. national budget, highest ever if To note, IATFthe Resolution 150approved by Congress, is P244 bilA had allowed fully vaccinated lion more travelers than this year’s P5.023.6non-visa from Green List trillion spending program. repareas to enter the countryItwithresents of GDP. out the22.1 need for facility-based Pangandaman said proposed quarantine as long asthe they secure budget was formulated within the negative Reverse Transcriptionoverarching theme “Agenda for Polymerase Chain Reaction (RTProsperity Economic TransformaPCR) test within 72 hours prior tion Towards Inclusivity and Susto their departure. tainability” to achieve a meaningful “Except for countries classified national development. as ‘Red,’ the testing and quarantine “Proactive,” A2 protocolsSee for all inbound international travelers in all ports of entry In his budget message, Marcos shall comply with the testing and quarantine protocols for ‘Yellow’ list countries,” Nograles said, citing the provision of IATF Resolution No. 151-A. He noted Hong Kong, which has confirmed a case of the Omicron variant, will also fall under the Yellow list countries. The suspension of the rules for “Green List” countries will be in effect from November 28, 2021 to December 15, 2021. Continued on A2
36.2807 n EU 56.5758 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.4531
Source: BSP (November 26, 2021)
See “NG debt,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 55.9790
n JAPAN 0.4092 n UK 66.2232 n HK 7.1352 n CHINA 8.2117 n SINGAPORE 40.2322 n AUSTRALIA 38.4688 n EU 56.2085 n KOREA 0.0419 n SAUDI ARABIA 14.9091 Source: BSP (August 22, 2022)