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Wednesday, August 16, 2023 Vol. 18 No. 303
O.F. REMITTANCES SEEN TO BREACH $33.5B IN ‘24 n
By Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas
Remolona: Economy can absorb up to 6.8% policy rate
@jearcalas
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ASH remittances sent by overseas Filipinos could surpass $33.5 billion next year, which could be the highest in at least six years, fueled by improved economic conditions abroad. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. said at a Senate Committee on Finance hearing that they expect cash remittances to “rise further” next year from this year’s projected total amount of $33.5 billion. Remolona made the remarks just as the BSP released on Tuesday the latest figures on cash remittances coursed through banks, indicating a 2.9-percent year-onyear increase in the total amount recorded for the first half. Based on the BSP’s projections, total cash remittances this year would grow by 3.07 percent yearon-year to $33.5 billion from $32.5 billion last year. (Related story: https://businessmirror.com. ph/2023/08/14/bsp-efforts-tostabilize-phl-peso-successful/) Executive Director Jeremaiah M. Opiniano of the Institute for Migration and Development Issues concurred with Remolona in the expectations that total overseas Filipinos’ cash remittances would further increase next year. “It will be surprising if remittances fall. With the US economy making a rebound as reported by CNN [citing US data], at least temporarily the world is enjoying a post-pandemic economic recovery [with some fits of slowdown like countries such as China]. So while there are these positive trends, migrants abroad try to send as many incomes as possible,” Opiniano told the BusinessMirror.
First-half cash remittances
BSP data showed that first half cash remittances reached $15.79 billion, about $44 million higher than the $15.35 billion recorded in the January-to-June period of last year. The BSP attributed the 3-percent increase in cash remittances to higher cash remittances from the United States, Singapore and
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ASHEN MOONSCAPE The wildfire that struck Maui nearly a week ago has transformed one of the nation’s most celebrated island vistas into an ashen moonscape and claimed the lives of at least 99 people, a toll that authorities warn might increase as the search continues. This wildfire, the deadliest in the US in over a century, engulfed homes and businesses, consumed cars, and left neighborhoods in ruins. In some areas, the fire spread as swiftly as a car on a highway—covering a mile in just a minute. Lahaina was hit particularly hard, losing almost every building in the town of 13,000. The aftermath presents a challenging journey of recovery for survivors, who mourn the loss of lives, as search teams sift through the charred debris and families aim to rebuild. The cause of the wildfire is being investigated, fueled by dry conditions and strong winds linked to a passing hurricane. This wildfire marks Hawaii’s deadliest natural disaster in decades, surpassing even the toll of a 1960 tsunami and a 1946 tsunami that claimed the lives of over 150 on the Big Island. AP/RICK BOWMER
HE Philippine economy can absorb the impact of a policy rate of as much as 6.8 percent to fuel its growth in the long-run, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. disclosed at a Senate Committee on Finance hearing that a 6.8-percent policy rate in nominal terms would be “just right” to support the economy’s growth in the “long-run.” “If we talk about the real rate, we remove the 3-percent inflation from the 6.25 percent, then the real interest rate of borrowing is 3.25 percent,” Remolona told senators, speaking partly in Filipino. “That is quite low. Our estimated rate that is just right for [the long run for the economy to See “Remolona,” A2
GROWTH GOALS IN ’23, ’24 ATTAINABLE–NEDA By Andrea E. San Juan @andreasanjuan
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OT W ITHSTA NDING the risks to the country’s economic growth, the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) believes the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth targets in 2023 and in 2024 to 2028 remain achievable. At the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) Briefing to the Senate on the Proposed Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 National Budget on Tuesday, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said “risks to the growth
we took into account last year remained today.” Balisacan said the domestic risks included elevated prices due to inadequate food supplies and, with the typhoons and natural disasters, the onset of El Niño which may last until the first quarter of 2024, and the spread of highly infectious animal diseases. Meanwhile, external risks included “elevated ” international commodity and input prices, lower global outlook and geopolitical and trade tensions. Despite these risks, he said, “we believe the GDP growth targets—i.e., 6 to 7 percent in 2023 and 6.5 to 8 percent in 2024 to
2028—remain achievable.” For 2023, Balisacan said the economy needs to grow by 6.6 percent in the second semester to achieve this year’s 6 to 7 percent growth, or an additional 0.4-percentage point from the baseline forecast of 6.2 percent for the second semester. Moving forward, he listed government’s plans to attain these targets. First, the need to sustain the downtrend in inflation by intensifying supply-side interventions and demand-side management. He said inflation is seen to go back to the 2 to 4 See “Neda,” A2
See “Remittances,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 56.8030 n JAPAN 0.3903 n UK 72.0716 n HK 7.2646 n CHINA 7.8263 n SINGAPORE 41.9148 n AUSTRALIA 36.8367 n EU 61.9664 n KOREA 0.0425 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.1418 Source:
BSP (15 August 2023)