BSP sees inflation reaching below-4% in 2023
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ITH the increase in commodity prices slowing, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) now expects inflation to reach below 4 percent by the end of the year. In a panel at the Philippine Economic Briefing in Davao, BSP Deputy Governor Francisco Dakila Jr. said average inflation could settle at 5.4 percent for this year. While this remains above the 2 to 4 percent target this year, this reflects the recent slowdown in prices. Earlier, BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. said the country may overshoot the inflation target this year. However, he said with various measures to address supply chain issues, the country may still be able to “stick the landing” when
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it comes to the government’s inflation targets. (Full story: https:// businessmirror.com.ph/2023/08/07/ phl-may-overshoot-inflation-targetbsp/)
“We have seen inflation decelerate rapidly. The latest outturn was at 4.7 percent, that is a significant reduction already from the peak of 8.7 percent in January,” Dakila said. “We are seeing that inflation will go back to within the target range at 2.9 percent for next year. In fact, it’s a little bit below the midpoint of the target. As can be seen also on this path, the likely outturn is that inflation will be back to the 2-4 percent target range in the fourth quarter this year,” he explained. Dakila said inflation could
“touch close” or be “slightly below the lower level of the target” in the first three months of next year. This, however, will be largely due to base effects as inflation peaked at 8.7 percent in January this year. “We’re closely monitoring some upside factors to inflation. In the recent path, inflation was driven by supply-side factors and we’re coordinating with other government agencies to make sure that those supply-side risks do not materialize,” Dakila said. He said the Inter-Agency Committee on Inflation and Market Outlook (IAC-IMO) is monitoring commodity prices closely, including commodities like oil which has been rising. Nonetheless, Dakila said the simulation of the BSP
takes into consideration $100 per barrel oil prices. Currently, oil prices are in the $80 per barrel range. “Of course, the other factors are oil, which has recently been rising again in the international market, but nevertheless, other things are constant, we have a good margin for oil,” Dakila said. Earlier, BM reported that rice may again be the cause of higher inflation in the coming months as Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data showed that prices returned to levels that were seen prior to the implementation of a law that sought to bring down the price of the staple. On Friday, the PSA reported C A
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Thursday, August 10, 2023 Vol. 18 No. 297
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NFLATION remains a bane for workers as the number of employed Filipinos looking for side hustles increased in June, based on the latest data released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). On Tuesday, PSA said the number of the unemployed reached 2.327 million in June 2023 while the underemployed reached 5.87 million. (Full story: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2023/08/09/ unemployment-underemploymentincreased-in-june-23-labor-force-survey/)
Based on the data, invisibly underemployed Filipinos or those who are employed full time but are still looking for better livelihood opportunities, reached 2.332 million. This is even higher than the number of the total unemployed in June. “I think people are still struggling to get by given inflation, so they are forced to do side hustles,” Ateneo Center for Research and Development (ACERD) Associate Director Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes told the BM. “People have to find ways [to survive]. As I’ve been saying in recent interviews, there is no social unrest despite high inflation because people somehow still manage to find work, albeit these are low-productivity ones. Just enough to survive day to day,” Peña-Reyes added. The data showed that the number of those considered invisibly underemployed increased 19.8 percent or by 385,000 compared to June 2022. The increase in their numbers was also in double digits compared to May 2023. PSA data showed an 18.1-percent increase, or by as many as 357,000 from May 2023 in terms of invisible underemployment. However, data also showed that the visibly underemployed—composed of Filipinos who are emC A
RECLAMATION ON HOLD With the exception of one project that has undergone review, all reclamation endeavors within the vicinity of Manila Bay have been put on hold. The photograph shows the ongoing reclamation initiatives within Manila Bay. NONIE REYES
AS BUDGET DEFENSE OPENS, ECONOMIC TEAM DARED B J M N. D C @joveemarie
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S the poor say they cannot eat growth,” the leadership of the House of Representatives wants President Marcos’ economic managers to explain how the nation could sustain its economic growth and how such growth could benefit people, particularly the poor, while defending the P5.768-trillion national budget for 2024. House Speaker Ferdinand Martin Romualdez and House Committee on Appropriations Chairman Elizaldy Co made statements
as they vowed to closely scrutinize the 2024 national budget while implementing transparency and encouraging active involvement from stakeholders as the budget briefing for the national budget gets under way today (Thursday). First to face the House are members of the President’s economic team, or the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC). These are Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman, Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno, National Economic and Development Authority Director General Arsenio Balisacan, and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli
Remolona. The four are expected to brief lawmakers on the state of the country’s economy and the macroeconomic assumptions used in putting together the proposed 2024 spending program. Romualdez said members of Congress would want to know from the administration’s economic managers “how the country could sustain its economic growth and how such growth could benefit our people.” He said many of the poor complain that the economic boom is benefiting only the rich, big comS “B,” A
‘Sierra Madre’ stays at Ayungin—Marcos
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RESIDENT Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. on Wednesday said the country will not remove the BRP Sierra Madre from the Ayungin Shoal. In a brief video statement, the chief executive belied the claim by Beijing that the Philippine government has made the commitment to remove grounded warship, which serves as military outpost, in its current location. “I’m not aware of any such arrangement or agreement that the Philippines will remove from its own territory its ship, in this case,
the BRP Sierra Madre from the Ayungin Shoal,” Marcos said. “And let me go further, if there does exist such an agreement, I rescind that agreement now,” he added. Last Monday, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs alleged the government has yet to act on the commitment to tow away BRP Sierra Madre. This after the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) summoned Chinese Ambassador to Manila C A
PESO EXCHANGE RATES US 56.2580 ■ JAPAN 0.3925 ■ UK 71.7177 ■ HK 7.1998 ■ SINGAPORE 41.7344 ■ AUSTRALIA 36.7984 ■ SAUDI ARABIA 14.9953 ■ EU 61.6419 ■ KOREA 0.0428 ■ CHINA 7.7921 Source: BSP (August 9, 2023)