BSP may ‘rethink’ easing–economists By Cai U. Ordinario
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HE implementation of a new rice policy and sticky inflation may give the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reason to “rethink its easing cycle,” according to economists. The Department of Agriculture (DA) recently disclosed that it wants to ban rice importation for up to two months as early as September in its bid to arrest the slump in farmgate prices of palay. (See: https://businessmirror. com.ph/2025/08/06/d-a-eyes-
2-month-ban-on-rice-importation-starting-september/). On Wednesday morning, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. approved the DA’s recommendation for a two-month imports halt. HSBC Asean economist Aris Dacanay said the Marcos administration’s policies on rice, the country’s staple, must be closely monitored, particularly its impact on supply. He said if rice supply is affected, this could lead to faster headline inflation. “One risk to monitor, however, is rice policy. Due to falling rice prices, the Department of Agri-
culture is proposing to impose a 1 million metric ton quota on imported rice. We have written previously that curbing the supply of rice risks stoking inflation by 1.2 to 1.4 percentage points,” Dacanay said. “Though the policy is still up for debate—and is therefore a risk, not a guarantee—market watchers will likely keep a tab on the proposal’s legislation since the impact would be enough for the BSP to re-think its easing cycle,” he added. Another risk that should be monitored, Ateneo de Manila University
economist Leonardo Lanzona Jr. said is sticky inflation, given the faster core inflation figure disclosed by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) on Tuesday. BusinessMirror on Wednesday reported that core inflation, which excludes volatile food items such as rice as well as energy, remains elevated at 2.3 percent in July. This is faster than the 2.2 percent recorded in June but slower than the 2.9 percent recorded a year ago. (See: https://businessmirror. com.ph/2025/08/06/july-coreinflation-worries-analysts/) See “BSP,” A2
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By Cai U. Ordinario
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ITH thousands joining the ranks of the unemployed, it’s easy to blame Trump’s tariffs but economists believe the full extent of the impact of Washington’s new trade policies have yet to impact Filipino workers. On Wednesday, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) disclosed that unemployment increased by 20.3 percent or 329,000 to 1.95 million in June 2025 from 1.62 million in June 2024. With this, PSA data showed total unemployed Filipinos averaged 1.95 million in the first six months of 2025, a reduction of 60,000 from the 2.01 million posted the same period last year. “The increase in unemployment is unlikely to be directly caused by the Trump tariffs, at least not yet. Its full labor market impact would likely surface in the second half of the year, especially in export-reliant sectors like electronics, garments, and agribusiness,” Philippine Institute for Development Studies Senior Research Fellow John Paolo Rivera told BusinessMirror. Rivera said, however, that anticipation of weaker orders and uncertainty on tariffs may have prompted companies to delay hiring or reducing their manpower. In the briefing, Assistant National Statistician Divina Gracia L. del Prado said among the sectors that saw the largest declines in employment was manufacturing which shed 424,000 jobs. Under manufacturing, Del Prado said, 156,000 jobs were lost in cement manufacturing; 114,000 in semiconductor and electronic products; and 24,000 in rice and corn milling. “It’s not fair to pin that directly on Trump’s tariffs. See “329k,” A8
STRENGTHENING TIES Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (right) shakes hands with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ahead of their bilateral talks in New Delhi, India, on Tuesday, August 5, 2025. Inset: From left, Modi, visiting President Marcos, Indian President Droupadi Murmu, and Philippine First Lady Louise Marcos pose during a ceremonial reception at the Indian presidential palace. India and the Philippines announced an upgraded strategic partnership aimed at boosting trade, defense, and maritime cooperation. The agreement followed talks between the two leaders, held during Marcos’s five-day visit, which also marked the countries’ first joint naval drills in the disputed South China Sea. India, a supplier of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines, also committed to deeper collaboration in space, tourism, culture, and digital technology. AP/MANISH SWARUP
Q2 FARM OUTPUT GROWS 5.7%, SPARED BY WEATHER WOES By Ada Pelonia
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HE country’s farm output expanded by 5.7 percent in the second quarter, the highest in eight years, driven by the absence of weather-related shocks in local plantations. Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that while the fisheries and livestock subsectors contracted in terms of value, the crops and poultry subsectors sustained their rise enough to buoy the
agriculture industry’s performance in April to June. Historical data also indicated that the latest growth rate is the highest since the 6.4-percent farm output in the same period of 2017. The value of agriculture and fisheries production reached P437.53 billion in the second quarter, higher than last year’s P414.05 billion. Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa attributed the increase in farm output to the absence of El Niño and See “Q2 farm,” A2
Manila-Delhi preferential trade pact eyed By Samuel P. Medenilla
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NCOURAGED by Manila’s growing bilateral trade with New Delhi, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. wants to expedite negotiations for the PhilippinesIndia preferential trade agreement (PTA) to spur further business collaboration in “high-growth sectors” in both countries. Addressing participants of the Philippines-India CEO Roundtable at the Taj Mahal Hotel, New Delhi in India on Wednesday, the chief executive said he has ordered the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) to initiate formal talks with the Indian government for a PTA, to focus on information and communication technology (ICT), digital technology, semiconductors, renewable energy, infrastructure,
healthcare and pharmaceuticals. “We are working very hard together to find the common ground so as to make the passage or the agreement of the PTA come as quickly as possible. The very fervent discussion we were having here earlier was just precisely about that, and I think we have found ways to do—to quicken the process,” he said. Once the PTA is finalized, Marcos said he hopes it will sustain the growth momentum between Philippines and India which reached US$ 3.3 billion last year. The event was attended by 17 business executives from different sectors including information technology and business process management (ITBPM), infrastructure, and healthcare. Marcos urged 10 Indian business leaders to consider making new investments in the Philippines by
citing its promising economic indicators, particularly its 5.7-percent gross domestic product last year, healthy financial and banking sectors and improved credit rating. He also cited the country’s newly approved laws and policies, which create a business-friendly environment such as his Executive Order No. 18, establishing green lanes for strategic investment, Public-Private Partnership Code of the Philippines, Renewable Energy Act, and the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (Create More) Act. “I urge you to further engage the economic team to learn more about such benefits. Our investment environment is the most open and liberal that it has ever been,” Marcos told the Indian business leaders. “We stand ready to welcome you to
our tropical country so you may personally see what a globally competitive Philippines can offer,” he added. For her part, DTI Secretary Ma. Cristina A. Roque said Indian firms can take advantage of the Philippines strategic location in Southeast Asia and preferential access to key markets through its extensive network of free trade agreements. “To our esteemed Indian partners, we warmly welcome your expanding interest in the Philippine market. We view your companies not merely as investors but as long-term partners in nation-building,” Roque said. Marcos and his other Cabinet members including Roque are currently on a five-day trip in India. Before returning home on Friday from his state visit, the chief executive will also visit Bangalore to meet with more Indian business leaders.
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 57.4500 n JAPAN 0.3893 n UK 76.4142 n HK 7.3190 n CHINA 7.9976 n SINGAPORE 44.6318 n AUSTRALIA 37.1644 n EU 66.4984 n KOREA 0.0414 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.3123 Source: BSP (August 6, 2025)