Oil shock, weak infra spend likely cut Q2 growth
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HE March-April oil shock effects which weakened Filipinos’ purchasing power, alongside the “steep” contraction in public infrastructure spending and softer private investment, likely further hindered the growth of the Philippine economy in the second quarter of 2026, according to economists. With the second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) print slated to be released on August
July 27, 2026 | 10 AM
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7, economists laid out their estimates as they weighed how the Philippine economy likely performed in the previous quarter following the war-triggered inflation which peaked in April. Bank of the Philippine Islands’ (BPI) Senior Vice President and Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri Jr. said the Philippines’s GDP growth likely slowed to 1.9 percent yearon-year in the second quarter of
2026, marking the weakest quarterly expansion since 2009, excluding the pandemic. “Growth was mainly dragged by three key headwinds: another quarter of steep contraction in public infrastructure spending, softer private investment, and a moderation in household consumption as elevated inflation, particularly higher transport and electricity costs, weighed on pur-
chasing power,” Neri said in a commentary at the weekend. Neri said public infrastructure spending continued to weigh “heavily” on economic activity, contracting by 43.4 percent yearon-year in the second quarter after a 45.4-percent decline in the first quarter of 2026, amid ongoing project delays and “slowerthan-expected” budget execution. See “GDP,” A2
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FASTER JULY INFLATION DRIVERS: OIL, WEAK PESO www.businessmirror.com.ph
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Monday, August 3, 2026 Vol. 21 No. 293
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 18 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
Submit 5-yr system loss data, ERC orders DUs
By Andrea E. San Juan
NFLATION likely accelerated in July, marking the end of the temporary downtrend path as the latest oil price rallies, coupled with a weak peso, strengthened second-round effects, according to analysts.
For one, Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., expects July inflation to come in at around 6.8 percent, slightly faster than the 6.4 percent in the previous month. Ravelas said the faster increase in the prices of goods and services in July could have been “driven largely” by higher food prices, weather-related supply disrup-
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tions, elevated transport and logistics costs, and the “lingering effects” of earlier peso weakness. “What is equally important is that core inflation likely continued to edge up, suggesting that price pressures are becoming more broadbased as businesses pass on higher operating costs and demand remains relatively resilient,” added Ravelas. See “Inflation,” A2
COURT TRO ON NCR WAGE HIKE RAISES JURISDICTIONAL ISSUE By Mary Jade Jadormio
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PASIG City court’s suspension of the P85 minimum wage increase in Metro Manila has raised questions over whether trial courts may stop the implementation of wage orders despite restrictions on court intervention under the Labor Code. Pasig Regional Trial Court Branch 152 barred the Regional Tripartite Wages and Productivity Board-National Capital Region (RTWPB-NCR) and the National Wages and Productivity Commission (NWPC) from implementing NCR Wage Order No. 27 until August 13. The temporary restraining order (TRO) halted the P60 first tranche of the increase, which took effect on July 25. However, Labor Secretary Francis N.
Tolentino clarified that workers who had already received the adjustment before the TRO was enforced could not be required to return it. “The worker already has a vested right to it, and it should no longer be returned because, at the time it was prepared and received, there was no order yet suspending it,” Tolentino said. Another P25 increase is scheduled to take effect on January 20, 2027, completing the P85 adjustment projected to benefit more than 1.1 million minimum wage earners in Metro Manila. Article 126 of the Labor Code states that courts, tribunals and other entities are prohibited from issuing injunctions or TROs against proceedings before the NWPC or the regional wage boards. See “TRO,” A2
BPI’S 175TH ANNIVERSARY AT MANILA CATHEDRAL Officials of the Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI), led by Chairman Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala and President and CEO Jose Teodoro “TG” Limcaoco, join His Eminence Jose Cardinal Advincula and clergy during a Grand Thanksgiving Mass at the Manila Cathedral on August 1, marking the bank’s 175th anniversary. The celebration brought together BPI’s board, executives, employees, and guests in gratitude for nearly two centuries of service, culminating in a symbolic “Lighting the Way Forward” candle-lighting ceremony that reaffirmed the country’s oldest bank’s commitment to financial inclusion, innovation, and nation-building. PHOTO COURTESY OF MANILA CATHEDRAL
NO STEPS BACK ON PAY Job seekers form a long line along a stairway while waiting for their turn at a job fair in Manila. The Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) clarified that employers cannot require minimum wage earners to return salary increases already received before the Pasig Regional Trial Court issued a temporary restraining order (TRO) suspending the implementation of Metro Manila’s P60 daily minimum wage hike. Labor officials said wages already paid are a vested right and cannot be clawed back from workers. NONIE REYES
By Lenie Lectura
HE Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) is requiring all distribution utilities (DUs) to submit their system loss data from 2021 to 2025 and every year thereafter. “In view of the ongoing deliberations of various proposed legislative measures seeking to amend the Epira [Electric Power Industry Reform Act] as well as the President’s directive in his recent State of the Nation Address concerning system loss, among others, ALL DUs [distribution utilities] are hereby directed to submit their respective loss data covering the period 2021 to 2025,” the ERC said in an advisory. To promote transparency, accountability, and consumer protection in the collection and imposition of system loss charges, the ERC re-issued Resolution 10, Series of 2018, requiring all DUs to submit their system loss data on or before 31 May of every year. In particular, the data required for submission include the generation purchased cost, transmission cost, energy output, energy input, subtransmission and substation, feeder technical loss, non-technical loss, and number of kiloWatt-hours (kWh) shouldered by the DU in excess of the feeder loss cap, if any. The ERC is part of the joint task force formed by the Department of Energy (DOE) to carry out the President’s directive—conveyed in his July 27 State of the Nation Address (Sona)—to remove system loss charges and their corresponding value-added tax (VAT) from electricity bills. The other members of the task force are the National Electrification Administration (NEA) and electric cooperatives. The DOE also met with the country’s largest DU, the Manila Electric Company (Meralco). According to the DOE, Meralco expressed its commitment to explore operational adjustments aimed at lowering electricity prices for its customers in the coming months, aligning with the collective goal of easing the financial burden on households and businesses. As part of this comprehensive review, the DOE and ERC are rigorously assessing Meralco’s price structures to deliver fairer electricity bills. President Marcos had said that consumers should not be made to pay for electricity that never reaches their homes. As such, he directed the immediate amendment of the Epira to prohibit the charging of system loss to consumers. “The President’s directive is clear: consumers should only pay for the See “System loss,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 61.4320 n JAPAN 0.3848 n UK 82.7366 n HK 7.8330 n CHINA 9.0973 n SINGAPORE 47.9488 n AUSTRALIA 43.1621 n EU 70.8065 n KOREA 0.0432 n SAUDI ARABIA 16.3614 Source: BSP (July 31, 2026)