Urea prices could soar to $542 per MT–BMI By Ada Pelonia
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REA prices could surge to more than $500 per metric ton (MT) in 2026 following the disruptions in global supply chains triggered by the Middle East war, a research firm said. BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, forecasts quotations for US Gulf urea this year to jump by over a third to $542 per MT, from $398 per MT in 2025. Middle East urea prices could also soar by 42 percent to $586 per MT from $411 last year. Despite the projected year-on-year increase, the research firm expects prices of urea to ease from recent rallies posted since the onset of the conflict amid persistent disruptions in the Persian Gulf.
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BMI figures showed that the latest quotations for US Gulf urea average $693 per MT, while Middle East urea stood at $850 per MT. “This trajectory is built on an assumption that a near-term resolution to the US-Iran conflict will gradually alleviate market concerns over physical supply availability, easing prices from their current elevated levels.” The research firm expects the US-Iran conflict to conclude by end-April, citing its “extend-toend” base case assumption. This will support its outlook of US Gulf urea prices moderating, as expectations of a resumption in physical trade from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) ease demand for US Gulf supply. “Our expectation is that the gradual reopen-
ing of the Strait of Hormuz combined with an easing risk premium, as market participants grow increasingly confident that exportable volumes from the GCC will be available during key global demand windows, will reduce the urgency to hedge forward price exposure. BMI, however, acknowledged the limitations of its forecast, saying central to the price outlook was its assumption over a near-term end to the conflict. “We remain cognizant of the potential for the conflict and the curbing of trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz to persist beyond our base case, which in addition to continuing to restrict physical supplies would also have a more meaningful impact on global production, though we
still expect the US market to be largely shielded.” Under its base case, BMI said the Strait reopens before the market exhausts the buffer created by the pre-buying activity observed in March. This means that physical supply from the GCC re-enters the market before importing regions are forced into a second round of emergency procurement, BMI said. “Under a prolonged closure, that buffer would be consumed, and key importing regions would enter their primary purchasing windows with the principal export route for roughly a third of global seaborne supply still shut.” “We consider this the primary upside risk to our price forecast, and under this scenario we would expect prices to approach or test record levels.”
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Thursday, April 30, 2026 Vol. 21 No. 198
P25.00 nationwide | 5 sections 34 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
By Justine Xyrah Garcia
HILIPPINE growth may slow further in the first quarter of 2026, as lingering fallout from last year’s corruption scandal and renewed pressures from the Middle East crisis weigh on the economy, the country’s chief economist said.
Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DepDev) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan
said on Wednesday gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter See “Growth,” A2
DOT CHIEF: HOLD OFF BORACAY BRIDGE, TRAVEL TAX DECISIONS By Ma. Stella F. Arnaldo Special to the BusinessMirror
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TAKEHOLDERS on Boracay Island may have found an ally in the new Tourism Secretary, who wants a study to be made to evaluate the necessity of a bridge connecting to the Aklan mainland, and its possible impact on the environment and livelihood of the people. Speaking with reporters on the sidelines of the Industry Dialogue on Tourism Constraints hosted by the Tourism Congress of the Philippines and Management Association of the Philippines, Tourism Secretary-designate Ma. Bernadita Angara-Mathay said on Wednesday, “Our heart is with the small players. But at the same See “Travel tax,” A2
IN her very first remarks at a tourism stakeholders’ event, Tourism Secretarydesignate Ma. Bernadita Angara-Mathay said on Wednesday that the Philippines received 2.24 million foreign visitors from January to April 27, 2026. STELLA ARNALDO
BOOKED VIEWS, EMPTY SEATS An idyllic lunch at Marina del Sol Resort overlooking Pearl Bay in Busuanga, Palawan—where boutique pearls are harvested every three months for the global fashion and jewelry trade—contrasts with a quieter tourism season, as visitors unwind over tuba, a traditional coconut wine locally brewed from fresh palm sap, on Pass Island in Coron, Palawan, while local tourists paddle through the Twin Lagoon on kayaking tours and travelers take in the famed Kayangan Lake from its limestone cliff deck, widely regarded among the cleanest in the Philippines; local tourists noted, “napaaga ang low season because of the Middle East war. A lot of foreign tourists have flight cancellations so they cancelled their hotel and tour bookings as well,” leaving operators navigating a pronounced slowdown despite the destination’s enduring appeal. BERNARD TESTA
BIR puts 19 Discaya vehicles on distraint By Reine Juvierre S. Alberto
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DOSE OF REALITY Mr. Bryan Posadas, RPh, MBA, vice president of the Philippine
Foundation for Vaccination, joins Dr. Lulu Bravo, executive director and RAISE Coalition convenor, alongside fellow healthcare professionals in urging pharmacies to evolve into more accessible frontline healthcare hubs, while underscoring the urgent need to boost awareness and uptake of adult immunization across all life stages. This was during the “Basta Vaxx, Facts Lang!” media roundtable on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, in line with World Immunization Week 2026. NONOY LACZA
HE Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) has placed 19 vehicles owned by the Discaya couple under constructive distraint and for seizure to preserve highvalue assets for potential government recovery. Assistant Commissioner for Enforcement and Advocacy Service James H. Roldan told reporters on Wednesday that the BIR has served warrants of seizure and constructive distraint on the vehicles kept at the St. Gerrard Construction office in Pasig City. A total of 15 vehicles registered in the names of Pacifico F. Discaya II and Cezarah Rowena Discaya were
placed under constructive distraint, allowing the BIR to secure and preserve the assets while tax-related matters remain under investigation. Meanwhile, four vehicles were subjected to constructive seizure in connection with the existing tax assessment involving St. Gerrard Construction General Contractor & Development Corporation, which is currently under collection proceedings. Roldan said those subject to the warrants of seizure will go through the auction process and contribute to the government’s revenue collection. “We are here to preserve assets and protect the government’s ability to collect taxes, while fully observing due process,” Internal
Revenue Commissioner Charlito Martin R. Mendoza was quoted in a statement as saying. The vehicles were previously under the Bureau of Customs’ (BOC) custody. Customs Assistant Commissioner Vincent Philip C. Maronilla said no violations were found in the importation of 17 vehicles owned by the Discayas. “Our investigation proved that their importers paid the correct taxes, so there’s no violation,” Maronilla said. “They paid their importers a fair compensation, so there’s no violation,” Maronilla said. “All of these were imported by legitimate dealers, car dealers here in the Philip-
pines. Upon review, we did not see any irregularity.” Customs Deputy Chief of Staff Chris Noel A. Bendijo said the vehicles were turned over to the BIR because it is no longer under the BOC’s jurisdiction. The BOC’s role is only to check if the vehicles were legally imported and if the correct customs duties and taxes were paid. In 2025, the BIR filed criminal tax cases with the Department of Justice against the Discayas for over P7.18 billion in tax liabilities, and demanded payment from St. Gerrard Construction General Contractor & Development Corporation for a final deficiency tax liability of over P998 million.
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 61.0010 n JAPAN 0.3824 n UK 82.4917 n HK 7.7856 n CHINA 8.9219 n SINGAPORE 47.7914 n AUSTRALIA 43.7926 n EU 71.4627 n KOREA 0.0414 n SAUDI ARABIA 16.2643 Source: BSP (April 29, 2026)