Inflation fears rise as peso hits record-low ₧61.3 By Andrea E. San Juan
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HE Philippine peso hit a new record low as it moved past the P61-level against the dollar on Tuesday, keeping imported inflation risks alive which are seen to feed into fuel, food, and power costs. “As the peso breaches P61, it keeps imported inflation risks alive—fuel, food, and power costs rise—so the [Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas] BSP’s hawkish bias stays intact and rate cuts are harder to justify,” Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co. said in a Viber message on Tuesday. From a market’s perspective, fresh record lows, said Ravelas, “hurt sentiment and raise
risk premiums, while growth takes a nearterm hit as higher inflation squeezes consumers and tight financial conditions curb investment.” The Bankers Association of the Philippines (BAP) showed the local currency closed at P61.3 against the greenback, 59 centavos weaker than its previous finish of P60.71 on Monday. Data from the BAP showed the peso traded for as weak as P61.3 against the dollar while it hit the strongest at P60.77 within the trading session. Prior to slumping to a new all-time low of P61.3 on Tuesday, the peso’s weakest level was seen at P60.748 against the dollar on March 31, 2026. For his part, Philippine Institute for Devel-
opment Studies (PIDS) Senior Research Fellow John Paolo Rivera attributed the weakness of the peso to a “combination of stronger dollar conditions, higher global interest rates, and elevated oil prices, which increase demand for dollars.” Rivera said geopolitical tensions also tend to trigger risk aversion, leading to capital outflows from emerging markets like the Philippines. A similar view was held by Robert Dan Roces, SM Investments Group economist, who said “stronger forces” are at work behind the depreciation of the peso. “US rates are still high, the dollar is strong, and money is moving out of emerging markets,” Roces said. Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist of Rizal
Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC), attributed the record-low peso to payments made by the country for imported oil and the “lack of progress” in talks between the United States and Iran for more than two weeks already. “In view of payments for some of the country’s crude oil/petroleum/fuel imported or hedged recently to further increase local supplies/inventories amid the local state of energy emergency since March 24, 2026 as a matter of prudence,” Ricafort said, adding: “Amid lack of progress on talks/negotiations between the US and Iran for more than two weeks already; the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz that could reduce global crude oil and liquefied natural gas [LNG] supplies.” See “Inflation,” A2
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WAR BEYOND MAY SEEN TO PUSH KEY RATE TO 6% www.businessmirror.com.ph
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By Andrea E. San Juan
HE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) can raise the key policy rate to as much as 6 percent this year as the fertilizer shock is yet to jolt the Philippines, which could eventually lead to higher prices of rice, a main staple food in the Philippines. “I think the BSP, given its mandate of price stability, can raise rates up to 6 percent. If again, the status quo happens. Our base case scenario is actually they’ll only raise it to 4.75 percent because our base case, the conflict ends April 15. But we’re past that,” HSBC Senior Asean Economist Aris Dacanay said at a briefing on Tuesday. Dacanay said this could be the monetary policy direction of the Philippines on the assumption that the conflict in the Middle East would persist beyond May.
The HSBC Senior Asean Economist said the BSP “has a very difficult job” right now as the Philippine economy is facing “stagflationary risks” where unemployment is currently rising, growth is currently weak, but inflation is “just at the base of the mountain.” Nonetheless, Dacanay said there are measures that can be considered to “lighten up the load” for the BSP. “One, as we speak, I think it’s currently being masked by the See “Key rate,” A2
PETITIONS SEEKING WAGE HIKE IN METRO MANILA NOW AT 16 By Justine Xyrah Garcia
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S higher energy prices continue to drive up living costs, labor groups have filed 16 petitions urging wage adjustments in the National Capital Region (NCR), the Department of Labor and Employment (Dole) said. DOLE-NCR Regional Director Sarah S. Mirasol confirmed on Tuesday that the petitions seek increases ranging from P200 to as high as P845, which would raise the daily minimum wage to between P895 and P1,500 from its current rate of P695. Mirasol said the Regional Tripartite Wages and Productivity Boar (RTWPB)-NCR is set to begin public consultations with stakeholders next month, ahead of formal public hearings scheduled in June. The timeline coincides with the anniversary of the last wage order in Metro Manila, which took effect on July 18 last year. “We are currently preparing notices to invite our stakeholders. The process is already underway,” Mirasol said in a chance interview in Quezon City.
The labor department said it is not precluding the issuance of a new wage order even before the 12-month interval lapses, but it emphasized that the likelihood of doing so is already slim. Under the Omnibus Rules on Minimum Wage Determination, RTWPBs may issue a new wage order within 12 months from their latest issuance, or earlier if “urgent and reasonable” grounds exist. In practice, this gives regional boards room to move ahead of the usual cycle when supervening events—such as sharp price shocks or external crises—warrant faster intervention. Mirasol said the RTWPBNCR would still need to determine whether sufficient grounds exist to declare a supervening event. “If we issue a wage order within the 12 months or prior to the anniversary, that is the time we will declare a supervening event. It is to be determined by the Board based on the existence of urgent and reasonable grounds,” she said. “There is only a small chance See “Wage hike,” A2
POWER PLAY ON PRICES Jephraim Manansala, Chief Data Scientist at the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC), briefs media at the launch of PRESYO-PH on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, at Luxent Hotel in Quezon City. The rollout comes amid continued movements in electricity costs in the Philippines, with households recently seeing adjustments driven largely by higher generation charges, peso depreciation, and tighter supply conditions affecting overall power rates in recent billing cycles. PRESYO-PH (Power Rates and Energy Supply Overview) is a data platform offering a first-of-its-kind, integrated view of electricity pricing and supply sources across the Philippines—aimed at strengthening transparency and helping the public better understand how power rates are determined. NONOY LACZA
PHL cites oil shock’s impact at FAO gab By Ada Pelonia
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HE Philippines called for stronger regional coordination to safeguard food security across the Asia-Pacific as ongoing tensions in the Middle East drive up prices of critical farm inputs and trickle into food costs. Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. raised the concern during the Ministerial Segment of the 38th Session of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Asia-Pacific Regional Conference (APRC 38). APRC 38 is a biennial gathering of ministers and senior officials from 46 member-states focused on food and agriculture policy coordination. The discussions raised concerns about the transmission of global energy shocks into domestic agricultural production.
This, as fertilizer and fuel—critical inputs in farming and food distribution—have posted price surges amid the conflict in the Middle East, affecting production costs, transport, and retail food prices. “We meet at a moment when geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have posed additional risks to global economic and food security through disruptions in oil, gas, and fertilizer exports, which have already triggered price hikes,” Tiu Laurel said. He also underscored the direct impact on vulnerable food systems in developing economies. The Department of Agriculture (DA) has been warning that rising fertilizer costs would strain local farmers during the wet planting season, when demand for inputs is at its highest. Higher pump prices have also jacked up the cost of transporting
food across the country, contributing to price pressures on basic commodities and reducing fishing activity due to elevated operating costs. The looming El Niño in the second semester also compounds these external shocks, which could further dent agricultural output and water availability, according to the DA. The agency said FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero’s briefing at the conference further reinforced the Philippines’s concerns, highlighting the global nature of supply chain vulnerabilities and the need for coordinated policy responses to manage volatility in food and input markets. As such, the DA said the Philippines has outlined a series of domestic mitigation measures. This includes fuel subsidies for farmers and fisherfolk, expanded logistics support, investments in cold storage and post-harvest infrastruc-
ture, and efforts to promote alternative and non-fossil-based fertilizers. “These initiatives aim to cushion short-term shocks while strengthening long-term resilience.” Aside from these, the DA said the Philippines is also pushing for a broader shift in regional agricultural policy. In particular, Tiu Laurel stresses the need for an “agri-food systems approach” that goes beyond production targets to include income stability, nutrition outcomes, and rural development. “The Philippines expressed that its priorities include targeted rural infrastructure investments, climateresilient farming technologies, innovative financing mechanisms to attract private capital, stronger coordination with local governments, and inclusive value chains that support women and youth participation in agriculture.”
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 60.6830 n JAPAN 0.3808 n UK 82.1709 n HK 7.7441 n CHINA 8.8880 n SINGAPORE 47.6394 n AUSTRALIA 43.6007 n EU 71.1387 n KOREA 0.0411 n SAUDI ARABIA 16.1795 Source: BSP (April 28, 2026)