More businesses turn pessimists in BSP poll
M
ORE businesses are now pessimistic than optimistic in the Philippines due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, as they see the impact of the energy crisis weighing on consumer spending with higher fuel costs seen feeding into the prices of other basic goods and services. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) monthly Business Expectations Survey (BES) revealed that business sentiment in the Philippines turned pessimistic in March 2026 as the current-month confidence index (CI) declined from 8.2 percent in February to -24.3 percent in March 2026.
HEAT IS ON A thin cow with a visible rib cage stands on a sun-scorched field in Tanza, Cavite,
as extreme heat continues to dry up grazing lands. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has warned of “dangerous” heat index levels ranging from 42°C to 51°C in several areas nationwide, heightening risks of heatstroke and stressing already fragile agricultural conditions. NONIE REYES
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“A negative CI means more respondents are pessimistic than optimistic,” the BSP explained. BSP said firms attributed their pessimism in March 2026 to the ongoing Middle East conflict, which had led to a sharp increase in domestic pump prices. “Businesses consequently expect consumer spending to slow, as higher fuel costs are seen to feed into the prices of other basic goods and services,” the central bank said. Compared to their outlook in February, the firms’ outlook for the quarter ahead (June 2026) also became pessimistic, while the
outlook for the year ahead was less upbeat, the survey conducted by the BSP on businesses noted. “The three-month ahead [confidence index] CI turned negative from 37.4 percent [in February 2026] to -17.3 percent, while the year-ahead CI declined from 51.1 percent to 11.7 percent,” it noted. The central bank said respondents’ outlook for both periods weakened on expectations that the “adverse” economic impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict may persist.
Key constraints
MEANWHILE, businesses cited
stiff domestic competition, insufficient demand, and high interest rates as major constraints to their business activities. “They also cited the impact of oil price hikes, stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict, as an emerging business constraint due to higher production cost,” the BSP noted. As firms cited these constraints to business activities, they anticipate inflation to trend higher, with inflation averaging at 3.1 percent in the next three months and 3.3 percent over the next 12 months. Meanwhile, firms expect tighter See “Businesses,” A2
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Monday, April 27, 2026 Vol. 21 No. 195
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By Andrea E. San Juan @andreasanjuan
ESEARCH institutions are expecting the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to deliver two quarter-point rate hikes at its upcoming policy meetings in June and August, raising the key interest rate to 5 percent amid a “deteriorating” inflation outlook and broadening price pressures due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In separate commentaries, ANZ Research, Citi Research and Nomura said they see the BSP delivering more rate hikes in the coming months with higher inflation expectations. “Managing inflation expectations amid high cost of daily essentials that affect sentiment will remain key for the central bank.
We expect the BSP to deliver two more 25bp rate hikes, taking the policy rate to 5 percent by Q3,” ANZ Research said in a commentary. The New Zealand-based ANZ Research said the possibility of further hikes later in the year will increase if geopolitical tensions See “Rate hikes,” A2
LOCAL PRODUCERS NIX HIKE IN PORK IMPORTS AT LOWER TARIFF By Ada Pelonia
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@adapelonia
OCAL producers bucked the government’s bid to increase pork shipments entering the country at a lower tariff, citing ample domestic stockpile and stable farmgate prices. Corn producers, however, agreed to augment the minimum access volume (MAV) allocation, provided that the measure would be invoked in the lean season to shield farmers from cheaper imports during peak harvest.
This, after Agriculture Secretary Tiu Laurel Jr. recently disclosed raising the allocation of MAV, dubbed the MAV Plus, for pork and corn instead of slashing their tariffs to protect local farmers. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has ordered the DA and the Tariff Commission to reduce duties levied on imported products to help ease prices for Filipino consumers, as the global oil crisis trickles into food costs. “We don’t support increasing the volume because we have enough local supply and current See “Pork,” A2
ASP ANGELS WALK 2026 With the theme “Aumbitious. Aarangkada. Aangat,” this year’s Angels Walk united families, allies, and advocates of the Autism community in the pursuit of true
and active inclusivity. Hosted by the Autism Society Philippines (ASP) and SM Cares, this year’s event was a grand show of support through simultaneous walks across 12 locations in the Philippines, leveraging SM’s nationwide network of most-loved Supermalls. By transforming crucial conversations on inclusivity into groundbreaking action, the ASP and SM aim to forge a future where no one is left behind and every Filipino regardless of their needs is accepted, accommodated, and appreciated. Among those who joined the walk is Sen.Risa Hontiveros, one of the prime movers of the National Autism Care Act that the Senate recently passed unanimously. SM SUPERMALLS
Jan-Feb GOCC subsidies down 27% By Reine Juvierre S. Alberto
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@reine_alberto
UBSIDIES given to government-owned and -controlled corporations (GOCCs) dropped to P8.691 billion in the first two months of 2026, according to the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr). According to the data released by the BTr, national government subsidies extended to GOCCs plunged by 27.32 percent to P8.691 billion as of end-February from P11.959 billion in the same period last year. Broken down, major non-financial government corporations cornered 64.98 percent of the total, while other government corporations obtained 30.69 percent. Of the P5.648 billion in subsidies to major non-financial government corporations, the Na-
tional Irrigation Administration (NIA) received the highest, or P2.865 billion. NIA was trailed by the National Food Authority (NFA) with P2.611 billion; and the Light Rail Transit Authority with P138 million. As for the P2.668 billion in financial aid to other government corporations, the Philippine Crop Insurance Corp. (PCIC) took the biggest subsidy amounting to P591 million. Next to PCIC are the Philippine Heart Center (P404 million), the Philippine Children’s Medical Center (P256 million) and the Philippine Rubber Research Institute (P189 million). In February alone, total subsidies amounted to P5.334 billion, down by 29.57 percent year-on-year from P7.574 billion.
NIA was given the biggest subsidy of P2.451 billion during the month, followed by NFA with P1.478 billion, and PCIC with P351 million.
The government provides subsidies to GOCCs to cover their operations that are not supported by corporate revenues or to fund specific See “GOCC,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 60.4650 n JAPAN 0.3788 n UK 81.4524 n HK 7.7204 n CHINA 8.8495 n SINGAPORE 47.3196 n AUSTRALIA 43.1176 n EU 70.6594 n KOREA 0.0409 n SAUDI ARABIA 16.1214 Source: BSP (April 24, 2026)