DOE cites 3 fuel price trajectories, all difficult By Jovee Marie N. Dela Cruz
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US ANNOUNCES NAVAL BLOCKADE OF IRANIAN PORTS; SHIP TRAFFIC APPEARS TO HALT IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ
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HE Department of Energy on Monday laid out three possible fuel price trajectories on Monday, warning that global pump prices remain highly sensitive to developments following a two-week ceasefire in a key Middle East conflict. During a hearing of the Legislative Energy Action and Development (LEAD) Council, Energy Undersecretary Alessandro Sales said the temporary truce has already triggered modest relief in local fuel prices but stressed that
the adjustment is fragile and will depend on whether the ceasefire holds beyond the next two weeks. “The only major intervening event since we last met was the agreement to a two-week ceasefire, and this is reflected in this week’s pump price adjustments,” Sales said. “There is some relief, but anything that happens until the end of the two weeks will definitely affect price movements in the coming weeks.” He presented three forwardlooking scenarios based on possible geopolitical outcomes and their expected impact on global oil supply and Philippine pump prices.
In the first scenario, a ceasefire is maintained and extended, allowing negotiations to move forward. If key shipping routes are partially reopened, global supply conditions are expected to stabilize. Under this outlook, fuel prices would gradually ease, with diesel projected to fall to around P90 to P105 per liter over the next four to six weeks. Sales said this assumes steady diplomatic progress and no renewed disruption in oil transport corridors. The second scenario assumes a breakdown of the ceasefire with no diplomatic resolution, leading to renewed hostilities and the pos-
sible re-closure of critical maritime routes. In this case, fuel prices could surge again, with diesel expected to rise to between P130 and P170 per liter, along with sharp increases in gasoline and kerosene. Sales warned that this remains a key risk if negotiations remain stalled. The third and most optimistic scenario involves the conclusion of a long-term peace agreement that fully ends hostilities and restores stability in global oil flows. In this case, diesel prices could eventually decline further to around P75 to P90 per liter, although Sales See “DOE,” A2
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PROLONGED CHAOS IN GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY TO HURT ASPAC By Justine Xyrah Garcia
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HE Philippines may avoid the worst of a Middle East-driven oil shock, but prolonged disruptions in global supply are expected to push up fuel costs and inflation, even as a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran holds. BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted despite the pause in hostilities, suggesting that energy price shocks are likely to persist in the near term. The international research firm noted that Asia-Pacific (APAC) faces heightened risks due to its heavy reliance on Middle East energy, with the shipping lane handling about a quarter of global seaborne oil and 20 percent of liquefied natural gas (LNG)— most of which is bound for the region. “APAC’s exposure is concentrated in crude oil and refined petroleum products, feeding
directly into manufacturing input costs, transport and trade financing. The inflation impact is therefore more broadly distributed across the industrial economy rather than concentrated in household energy bills,” the firm said. For the Philippines, BMI said the impact of rising Brent crude prices on growth and inflation would be “meaningful but relatively manageable.” Latest estimates from the Fitch Solutions unit showed that gross domestic product (GDP) could decline by 0.13 percentage points if oil averages $85 per barrel, deepen to 0.30 percentage points drop at $95, and reach a 0.57 percentage points contraction at $110. Inflation, meanwhile, is projected to rise by 0.37 percentage points under the first scenario, accelerating to 0.89 percentage points at $95, and peaking at 1.67 percentage points in the worst-case scenario. Compared with regional peers, the See “Chaos,” A2
SHRINKING CATCH A lone fisherman tries his luck on Laguna de Bay as daily yields continue to decline, reflecting mounting pressure on the country’s largest lake. Poor human waste management and the growing presence of invasive predators are disrupting the lake’s ecological balance, threatening both biodiversity and the livelihoods of communities that depend on its waters. BERNARD TESTA
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By Samuel P. Medenilla @sam_medenilla
ONCERNED over the potential impact of a suspension of Value Added Tax (VAT) on petroleum products on government response to the Middle East crisis, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said Monday he is not keen on the proposal made by several groups, including some lawmakers, to help reduce pump prices. In a press briefing, the chief executive said removing the VAT will only benefit oil firms rather than the general public. Instead, he said he opted to use the windfall profit from the VAT to assist sectors reeling from the impact of the Middle East conflict. “People will say why are you only helping transport workers?... You
will also have to take care of the other sectors. So with the additional funding that we will get from the VAT collections, that’s what we will use to provide [them aid]. That fund will not exist if we remove the VAT on petroleum products alone,” Marcos said in Filipino. While he shunned suspending See “VAT,” A2
Peso weakens after US-Iran talks collapse By Andrea E. San Juan
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HE Philippine peso weakened for the second straight trading day on the back of renewed geopolitical risks after failed talks between the United States and Iran. Data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines (BAP) showed that the local currency closed at P60.135 after opening at P60.25 to the greenback on Monday. The rate is weaker by 16 centavos than the peso’s previous finish of P59.97 on Friday. Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co. attributed the depreciation of the peso to: “Renewed geopolitical risks after failed talks.” Michael L. Ricafort, chief econo-
mist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) said this is “after the US and Iran did not reach an agreement during the talks in Islamabad, Pakistan on April 11,2026.” Ricafort also noted that the US forces will begin the blockade at the Strait of Hormuz starting at 10 AM, New York time on April 13, 2026, something “that could potentially increase tensions with Iran and could potentially jeopardize/threaten the fragile 2-week ceasefire.” Within the trading session, the peso hit its strongest level at P60.13 and its weakest at P60.5. The peso hit its weakest level on March 31 when it closed at P60.748 against the dollar. The Philippine peso strengthened sharply last Wednesday, April See “Peso,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 59.7700 n JAPAN 0.3745 n UK 80.1695 n HK 7.6320 n CHINA 8.7504 n SINGAPORE 46.8050 n AUSTRALIA 41.8988 n EU 69.7755 n KOREA 0.0403 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.9280 Source: BSP (April 13, 2026)