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A broader look at today’s business n
Saturday, April 11, 2026 Vol. 21 No. 179
ADB cuts PHL growth forecast for ’26 to 4.4% T
P25.00 nationwide | 20 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
BSP ON WAIT-AND-SEE MODE, FEARS QUICK SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF ME WAR By Andrea E. San Juan
WO weeks ahead of its April 23 policy meeting, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) signaled that it is on a wait-and-see stance, as it called the US-Iran wardriven oil shock a “new experience” but admitted that it sees quicker spillover effects into the prices of goods in the Philippines. In a televised interview on Friday, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. warned that second-round effects or the transmission of oil shock into local prices of goods may start to surface sooner than expected. “In the past it would be two to three months. But given how sharp the rise in oil prices has been, it may be quicker than
COMMUTERS along Commonwealth Avenue in Quezon City struggle for limited public transport, with some resorting to “sabit” rides on jeepneys as fuel-driven service cuts reduce available trips amid rising diesel prices. Transport workers are scaling back operations as earnings shrink, low-income households are forced into longer waits, overcrowding, and higher commuting stress, while OFW families remain indirectly exposed to broader economic uncertainty affecting remittances and household stability. As the Asian Development Bank noted, the impact is not evenly spread but results in a “more pronounced negative effect for pockets of the population.” NONOY LACZA
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By Justine Xyrah Garcia
HE Philippines’s growth is set to stall at 4.4 percent this year, matching its 2025 pace, as tensions in the Middle East cloud the outlook, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said Friday. In its Asian Development Outlook, the multilateral lender cut its growth forecast from 5.3 percent. For 2027, the country is expected to expand by 5.5 percent. Both projections fall short of the government’s targets of 5 to 6 percent for 2026 and 5.5 to 6.5 percent for 2027. The bank’s baseline scenario assumes tensions will ease within the next two months. The ADB noted that among developing Southeast Asian economies, only the Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia saw downward revisions, with the first two deemed “very exposed” to spillovers from the ongoing conflict. According to ADB Senior Eco-
that. So this is kind of a new experience,” BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. said in a televised interview on Friday. Continued on A2
FDI net inflows 39% lower at $443M in Jan, numbers seen dipping with war
E
OFW Remittances at Risk
LEVATED inflation, weaker credit outlook and the Middle East conflict could weigh on foreign direct investments (FDI), analysts said. “Looking ahead, risks from elevated inflation, a weaker credit outlook, and the Middle East conflict could keep FDI subdued in the near term, with investors likely to remain selective and defer large capital commitments,” Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, Chief Economist at the Union Bank of the Philippines said. Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist of the Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) said the effects of the conflict in the Middle East since February 28,2026, which led to “sharply higher” crude oil prices have yet to be reflected on the FDI data. Ricafort said the S&P’s revision of the Philippine credit rating outlook to stable from positive on
2025 REMITTANCE INFLOWS
nomics Officer Teresa Mendoza, the Philippines’s heavy dependence on imported oil leaves it particularly vulnerable to global price shocks, which quickly feed into domestic inflation. “Domestic demand will continue to benefit from the lagged effects of monetary easing since 2024, but these gains will be partly offset by recent inflationary pressures and heightened uncertainties which will weigh on investment and erode household purchasing power,” Mendoza said during a press briefing in Mandaluyong. For 2026, the ADB now expects inflation to average 4 percent— higher than its earlier 3-percent
“We erred on the side of caution. We decided to wait and see.”— Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr., on the Monetary Board’s decision to hold rates steady amid uncertainty over inflation and growth balance
“Looking ahead, risks from elevated inflation, a weaker credit outlook, and the Middle East conflict could keep FDI subdued in the near term, with investors likely to remain selective and defer large capital commitments.”—UnionBank of the Philippines Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion
Thursday could also weigh on FDI data for the coming months. Experts raised these concerns after the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported that the Continued on A2
“We see that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East poses downside risks given that the Middle East comprises about 17 percent of remittance sources, largely from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.” ”— ADB Senior Economics Officer Teresa Mendoza
Continued on A2
New takeover attempt at Subic marine park foiled By Henry Empeño
S
UBIC BAY FREEPORT—Another attempt by a former official of the Subic Bay Marine Exploratorium, Inc. (SBMEI) to take over the company was thwarted after his group, escorted by some police officials, was denied entry to the SBMEI complex by park security on Thursday, March 8. According to SBMEI President and CEO Robert Ianne Gonzaga, former SBMEI Chairman Timothy J. Desmond arrived at the marine park gates with a convoy of two Philippine National Police vehicles with armed personnel, several private cars, and a pickup truck carrying masked men. Desmond’s group, through individuals falsely representing themselves as officers of SBMEI, demanded entry to the facility “in a brazen attempt to forcibly take over the facility,” Gonzaga said. The police escorts, Gonzaga added, were headed by Capt. Isabel Cabotage of the PNP-Integrity Monitoring and Enforcement Group (PNP-IMEG) based at Camp Crame.
Capt. Cabotage’s ID card shown to SBMEI security personnel. SBMEI
SBMEI Security Chief Brando Agao confronts PNP-IMEG Capt. Isabel Cabotage at the marine park gates. SBMEI
Cabotage reportedly told SBMEI Security Chief Brando Agao that she was there to verify reports that PNP personnel were on duty at SBMEI’s Camayan Beach Resort. However, Gonzaga said such stated purpose did not explain why she was in the company of Des-
mond’s group and the masked individuals escorting the group. “Desmond’s group had no court order, no writ of any kind, and had not even coordinated (their arrival) with the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority (SBMA),” Gonzaga said.
Gonzaga condemned the incident as “a calculated attempt to use the state’s own police force to execute an illegal corporate seizure” and dismissed Desmond’s claim to any authority over the company. “Desmond directly owns only 1 percent of SBMEI. The block of stockholders he claims to represent, through a Florida company called JV China, Inc., is locked in active litigation in the United Continued on A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 59.5020 n JAPAN 0.3743 n UK 79.9588 n HK 7.5958 n CHINA 8.7113 n SINGAPORE 46.7783 n AUSTRALIA 42.1334 n EU 69.6352 n KOREA 0.0403 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.8562 Source: BSP (April 10, 2026)