BSP move on peso seen behind 7-mo GIR low By Andrea E. San Juan
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HE country’s dollar reserves hit a seven-month low in March after the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) intervened to stabilize the peso, analysts said. Moving forward, experts underscored that reserves may face pressure as oil prices and market volatility persist amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co. said: “The dip in gross international reserves to $107.5 billion
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OIL PRICES SINK AND US STOCK FUTURES JUMP AS US AND IRAN AGREE TO 2-WEEK CEASEFIRE
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mainly reflects active BSP management rather than stress— using reserves to smooth peso volatility, settle government external payments, and absorb valuation losses as the US dollar strengthened.” Ravelas said this after preliminary data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed the country’s gross international reserves (GIR) dipped to $107.5 billion at end-March 2026, the lowest since August 2025. The latest figure is 5.82 percent lower than the $113.264 billion recorded in end-February 2026. Year-on-year, the GIR rose by 0.78
percent from the $106.67 billion in end-March 2025. Ravelas also noted that the Middle East conflict has added pressure “indirectly by lifting oil prices and global risk aversion, which increases dollar demand and prompts defensive FX action.” Domini S. Velasquez, Chinabank’s Group chief economist, said the decline in the GIR may have partly reflected BSP’s foreign exchange intervention to “curb excessive and potentially inflationary exchange rate volatility.” “USDPHP climbed from 57.665 as of Feb. 27 [before the war] to
60.748 as of end-Mar,” Velasquez pointed out. Moreover, Velasquez said gold prices declined in March, which contributed to a lower GIR compared to February. For Michael L. Ricafort, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC) chief economist, the lower GIR was “largely” due to lower foreign investments arising from market volatility “that reflected the adverse effects of the war on Iran/Middle East since February 28, 2026, and also lower world gold prices that reflected the decline in gold holdings.”
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Thursday, April 9, 2026 Vol. 21 No. 177
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 22 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
COOL DIPS, HOT ROADS As the Philippines swelters under a dangerous heat index of 42°C or higher on Wednesday, April 8, 2026, locals are finding ways to cope. At Wawa Dam, tourists wade into the cool waters, enjoying the dam’s gently sloping spillway and shallow downstream areas. Meanwhile, in Quezon City, the heat adds to commuters’ woes as motorcycles weave through traffic along Commonwealth Avenue, adjusting to a pump price hike that pushed diesel to P150 per liter and gasoline past P90. Former Energy Secretary Jericho Petilla warned that high fuel costs may persist even if global tensions ease, leaving many Filipinos both seeking shade and counting the cost during the relentless summer heat. NONOY LACZA
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By Justine Xyrah Garcia
HE World Bank sharply downgraded its growth outlook for the Philippines this year, flagging the country’s heavy exposure to the Middle East conflict as a key risk to expansion. In its East Asia and Pacific economic update, the Washingtonbased lender said it now expects the Philippine economy to expand by a mere 3.7 percent in 2026—1.6 percentage points lower than its earlier 5.3 percent forecast. World Bank East and Asia Pacific senior economist Ergys Islamaj said the downgrade reflects the Philippines’s multiple transmission channels to the conflict. “[The] Philippines is exposed to [the] conflict not only through energy and fertilizer imports but also through remittances. 18 percent of remittances to the Philippines in 2025 came from the Gulf,” Islamaj noted during the report’s launch. He added that as long as the geopolitical tensions continues, the country’s growth could be at greater risk. “Long conflict will hurt the economy further,” he said. The bank’s assessment aligns with the latest assessment of the
Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DepDev), which sees growth settling between 3.5 percent and 5.3 percent this year, as higher fuel costs, weaker remittances, and softer tourism dampen expansion. To recall, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) earlier trimmed its medium-term macroeconomic assumptions, projecting GDP growth at 5 to 6 percent this year, down from the previous 6 to 7 percent target. The DBCC has yet to announce whether it will recast these targets anew. The World Bank’s 2026 projection is now the lowest forecast compared to other multilateral organizations. For comparison, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees the Philippine economy growing by 5.6 percent this year, while the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projects See “Outlook,” A2
₧75-B loss seen for rice, corn, fisheries By Ada Pelonia
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HE country stands to incur P75 billion in losses from the rice, corn, and fisheries sector if nothing is done to mitigate the impact of the global oil crisis, a senior official from the Department of Agriculture (DA) said. With the persistent disruption in the Persian Gulf that has jacked up global oil prices, Undersecretary Asis Perez said the agency also expects rice and corn output to plunge by as much as 50 percent this year. “The value that we’re projecting to lose—assuming we don’t do anything, the cost of inaction—for three major [sectors] alone, including rice, corn, and fisheries is already P75 billion,” the official said during a Senate hearing of the Committee on Agriculture, Food and Agrarian Reform on Wednesday. The official also noted that palay planted between May and June would be affected by the crisis, the yield of which will be harvested by September. Based on the agency’s initial projection, the “best-case scenario” is for the
minimum volume of losses due to the crisis to stand at 20 percent. “It can even go up to a 50-percent decline in productivity, because farmers can’t do anything if there’s no fertilizer.” The official noted that this translates to 2 million metric tons (MMT) of palay, adding that the projection also mirrors that of corn production. The DA expects palay production to settle at 20.3 MMT in 2026. “The good thing about what we’re doing is we’re anticipating a catastrophe that’s about to happen assuming we don’t act.” The DA has issued several interventions as part of efforts to cushion the impact of rising fertilizer and pump prices on the farm sector. Among the interventions include P100 million fuel assistance, with 14,439 farmers and 15,669 fisherfolk receiving P5,000 and P3,000 each, respectively. The DA would also tap the P10billion Presidential Assistance to Farmers and Fisherfolk Program (PAFFP) under the General Appropriations Act (GAA) set to benefit over 4 million in the sector worth See “P75-B,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 60.2060 n JAPAN 0.3775 n UK 80.0860 n HK 7.6831 n CHINA 8.7752 n SINGAPORE 46.9589 n AUSTRALIA 41.9696 n EU 69.8390 n KOREA 0.0402 n SAUDI ARABIA 16.0340 Source: BSP (April 8, 2026)