BSP resets BOP projection; sees wider gap in ’26-’27 By Andrea E. San Juan
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WORLD » A10
‘GO GET YOUR OWN OIL’: TRUMP LASHES OUT AT ALLIES AS STRAIT OF HORMUZ CRISIS DEEPENS
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LEVATED geopolitical ten‑ sions, particularly in the Middle East, could push deeper the country’s overall bal‑ ance of payments (BOP) position into deficit in 2026 and 2027. A month into the Middle East conflict which caused oil price shocks globally, the Bangko Sen‑ tral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported it has adjusted its forecast for the country’s balance of payments—a measure of the country’s economic transactions with the rest of the world. “The Philippine balance of pay‑
ments is projected to remain under pressure over 2026–2027 amid a challenging global environ‑ ment and structural constraints,” the Philippines’s central bank un‑ derscored. “Global growth remains be‑ low prepandemic trends, while world trade momentum is ex‑ pected to weaken as tariff‑related front‑loading unwinds,” BSP said. At the same time, it pointed out that elevated geopolitical ten‑ sions, particularly in the Middle East, adds “downside risks mainly through higher energy prices and episodic risk‑off sentiment.” “These external conditions shape the overall balance of pay‑
ments outlook primarily through cost and confidence channels rather than abrupt volume con‑ tractions,” BSP underscored. As such, BSP laid out its 20262027 BOP Forecast as of March 2026 which showed that the coun‑ try’s overall BOP position for this year will be at a $7.8-billion deficit while 2027 will see an even wider gap with $8.5-billion deficit. Prior to the Middle East con‑ flict, BSP projected the country’s BOP to widen to a $5.9 billion defi‑ cit this year. In the January to February 2026 period, the country’s BOP posted an overall deficit of $2.7 billion after the Philippines post‑
ed a $2.28-billion BOP gap in Feb‑ ruary, the widest in 10 months or since April 2025. In 2025, the Philippines’s BOP swung to a deficit of $5.7 billion, a reversal of the $609-million sur‑ plus posted in 2024. As to the composition of the BOP, the current account deficit is projected to widen to a $20.3-bil‑ lion deficit this year and $21.9 bil‑ lion deficit in 2027. Meanwhile, financing inflows would help manage, but do not fully offset, current account pres‑ sures, the central bank said. “Net FDI is projected at US$7.5– 8.0 billion, providing a stable base. See “Projection,” A2
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END-FEB N.G. DEBT HITS RECORD HIGH OF ₱18.16T O n
By Reine Juvierre S. Alberto @reine_alberto
UTSTANDING debt of the national government hit a fresh record high of P18.159 trillion as of the end of February 2026, a level that could rise further on a weaker peso and heightened global uncertainty.
Latest data from the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) showed that the debt stock inched up by 0.14 percent from P18.133 trillion a month earlier. The increase developed on the back of “continued prioritization” of domestic borrowings to shield the government’s debt position from “unfavorable external devel‑ opments,” the BTr said. “The modest uptick underscores the government’s stable and wellmanaged debt position amid evolving global financial condi‑ tions,” it added. Year-on-year, the outstanding debt jumped by 9.19 percent, or P1.527 trillion, from P16.632 tril‑ lion. According to Michael L. Rica‑ fort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., the latest debt figure does not yet ful‑ ly capture the impact of the Mid‑ dle East war that began on Febru‑ ary 28, even as the government had already frontloaded some if its borrowings during the start of the year. “The [national government] debt would have been higher had
it not been for the underspending since the latter part of 2025 due to the anomalous flood-control projects,” Ricafort said.
Domestic, external debts
OF the total outstanding debt, 68.7 percent, or P12.479 trillion, came from domestic sources, while 31.3 percent, or P5.680 tril‑ lion, was owed to external credi‑ tors. “The [national government] maintains a prudent debt profile that minimizes vulnerability to foreign exchange fluctuations,” the Treasury said. On one hand, domestic debt grew by 1.25 percent from P12.324 trillion at end-January, following the issuance of P158.14 billion in government securities. Meanwhile, the Treasury said the impact of currency move‑ ments on foreign currency-de‑ nominated domestic securities remained minimal, trimming valuations by P3.75 billion. Domestic debt expanded by 11.19 percent, or P1.255 trillion, year-on-year from P11.223 trillion. See “Debt,” A2
USTR REPORT: WASHINGTON’S TRADE GAP WITH PHL WIDER By Bless Aubrey Ogerio
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HE faster rise in imports compared with exports caused the United States (US) to record a wider goods and services trade deficit with the Philippines in 2025, accord‑ ing to the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR). In its latest National Trade Estimate Report, USTR showed that the US goods trade deficit with the Philippines reached an estimated $8.6 billion in 2025, up 75.3 percent or $3.7 billion
from the previous year. The increase came as US ex‑ ports to the Philippines slipped slightly to $9.1 billion, down 1.1 percent or $98.4 million from 2024. Imports from the Philippines, meanwhile, climbed to $17.8 bil‑ lion in 2025, a 25.4-percent or $3.6-billion increase year-onyear. The total two-way goods trade between the two countries reached about $26.9 billion for the year. Despite the widening defi‑ cit, the Philippines remained See “Trade gap,” A2
SNIFFING OUT THREATS Members of the AFP National Capital Region Command K9 unit inspect a bus terminal in Cubao, Quezon City on April 1, tightening security as Holy Week travelers begin their journey to the provinces. NONOY LACZA
Peso gains as global oil prices slide on ‘end-war’ view By Andrea E. San Juan
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FTER its five-day losing streak against the green‑ back, the Philippine peso strengthened by more than half a peso on Wednesday, closing at P60.16 per dollar as global oil prices tumbled after US President Donald Trump signaled a “potential end” to the Middle East conflict. Data from the Bankers Asso‑ ciation of the Philippines (BAP) showed the local currency closed at P60.16 per $1, stronger by 58 centavos than its previous finish of P60.748 on Tuesday. The peso rebounded a day after hitting an all-time low of P60.748 against the dollar. Citing a report by Bloomberg,
Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co. attribut‑ ed the peso’s rebound to the price of oil sliding below $100 on “opti‑ mism over Iran war resolution.” “Oil tumbled after President Don‑ ald Trump signaled a potential end to the Iran war, with Brent crude falling below $100,” the Bloomberg report said, as quoted by Ravelas. Philippine Institute for Devel‑ opment Studies (PIDS) Senior Re‑ search Fellow John Paolo Rivera told the BusinessMirror, however, that this was likely a “technical cor‑ rection rather than a shift in fun‑ damentals.” “Main drivers are profit-taking and position unwinding, where mar‑ ket participants reduce dollar hold‑ ings after the peso became oversold following its recent slide past 60,”
Rivera told this newspaper. The senior research fellow for the state-run think tank said there may have also been some easing in global risk sentiment or stabilization in oil prices, which reduced pressure on emerging market currencies. On the domestic front, Rivera said: “Dollar inflows such as remit‑ tances, exporter conversions, or corporate transactions could have provided support.” Michael L. Ricafort, chief econo‑ mist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC), meanwhile, at‑ tributed the stronger local currency to the seasonal increase in OFW re‑ mittances and conversion to pesos to finance holiday-related spending around the country ahead of the long Holy Week holiday weekend. He also noted the peso may
have strengthened largely due to “Trump’s latest signals that the US war on Iran could end within 2 to 3 weeks and would leave it to other nations to resolve issues with the Strait of Hormuz.” On the domestic side, Ricafort said Philippine fuel inventories increased to 51 days (from the previous 45 days) after the recent purchases of Russian crude oil and other fuel pur‑ chases from other countries. The peso rebounded on Wednes‑ day after its five-day losing streak against the dollar during which the local currency slumped to three consecutive record lows. Within the trading session on Wednesday, the local currency traded at its strongest level of P60.1 against the greenback, while its weakest level was at P60.5.
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 60.6780 n JAPAN 0.3824 n UK 80.2709 n HK 7.7402 n CHINA 8.8091 n SINGAPORE 47.1909 n AUSTRALIA 41.8678 n EU 70.1316 n KOREA 0.0404 n SAUDI ARABIA 16.1704 Source: BSP (April 1, 2026)