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ALDAR DARMAEV | DREAMSTIME.COM
nature-based UA&P: BSP WILL MIRROR Can defenses hold vs FED, CUT RATES FURTHER rising flood threats?
T
By Cai U. Ordinario
HE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is expected to reduce rates further, mirroring the recent decision of the United States Federal Reserve. This was according to the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) in its latest Market Call report which stated that the Fed’s 25-basis-point reduction in US interest rates in mid-September signals the possibility that the BSP will follow suit. “Fed’s 25-bps cut in mid-September with some 50 bps more to come later this year, BSP likely to mirror these,” UA&P economists said in its report. However, the report said that a pause in monetary easing in October, after the Fed reduced policy rates in September, could help support the Philippine peso. The local currency, UA&P said, averaged P57.085 against the dol-
lar in August. This is stronger compared to the previous average of P57.203 to the greenback in July. “Coupled fundamentally with larger trade deficits in Q4 2025, this supports a slow march to the P58level,” the economists said. “However, a Fed rate cut in September P58 level, timed with a BSP pause in October, could provide some short-term support for the peso,” they added. Meanwhile, the economists maintained their 5.8- percent GDP outlook for the third quarter on the back of the recent uptick in inflation. They expect this increase in commodity prices to be temporary. According to the report, the government’s spending will in-
ment] spending should accelerate for the rest of the year, with major infrastructure projects less affected by the corruption mess in Congress,” the economists said. Recently, Global Source Partners Country Analyst Diwa Guinigundo, a former Deputy Governor of the Philippine Central Bank, warned that the controversy surrounding billions worth of flood control projects is bad news for the national government, which has struggled to meet its economic growth targets for the past three years. Guinigundo said the flood control issue is also bad for the economy. He said the sheer amounts involved in the corruption-laden projects and extent of the flood control issue reverses economic gains which the Philippines needs to lift millions from poverty. Guinigundo said the corruption in life-saving flood control projects weakens the country’s resilience to disasters as well as renders Filipino firms and households vulnerable to economic losses (See: https://businessmirror.com. ph/2025/09/11/flood-control-messdents-economic-gains/).
THE RISKS
Flood Control Corruption Fallout n Billions lost in corruption-hit projects. n Weakens disaster resilience. n Reverses hard-won economic gains. n Dampens investor & public confidence.
GUINIGUNDO: The sheer amounts involved in the corruptionladen projects and extent of the flood control issue reverses economic gains which the Philippines needs to lift millions from poverty.
crease on account of the continuation of infrastructure projects and less impact from political issues. “With some positive base effects, we still see a 5.8-percent GDP expansion for the quarter, as we see the inflation uptick in August as transitory. NG [national govern-
BSP limits large-value cash transactions to traceable channels to fight laundering By Cai U. Ordinario
AWARGULA | DREAMSTIME.COM
F
ILIPINOS are now advised to go through traceable channels for large-value cash transactions to reduce money laundering and other risks linked to the use of cash, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). Under BSP Circular No. 1218 series of 2025, issued on 18 September 2025, large-value transactions above P500,000 or its equivalent in foreign currency must be conducted through checks, online fund transfers, direct credit to deposit accounts, or digital payments. “The same limit applies to cash transactions in equivalent foreign currencies. The limit may be reached in a single transaction or series of transactions within one banking day,” the BSP said. If BSP-Supervised Financial Institutions (BSFIs) encounter
withdrawals beyond P500,000 or its equivalent in a foreign currency, they should conduct enhanced due diligence (EDD) and, if warranted, file a suspicious transaction report. The BSP said after completing EDD, BSFIs may allow the larger payout if the customer provides additional documents or proof of a legitimate business purpose. The BSP said it also allows BSFIs to set even lower limits on large-value cash transactions, based on their risk assessment and the customer’s financial profile. Through the reform, the BSP aims to strengthen measures against the use of cash for illegal activities, promote trust in the financial system, and ensure that it can respond to new risks. The BSP said the Circular will take effect 15 calendar days following its publication in the Official Gazette or in a newspaper of general circulation in the Philippines.
AERIAL view of a coastal village and highway amid mangroves in Siargao. Experts warn that while mangroves and other nature-based solutions (NBS) provide vital protection against flooding, they must be reinforced by engineering innovations, coordinated policies, and strict land-use planning to match the rising risks from storms and rapid development. ALEXEY KORNYLYEV | DREAMSTIME.COM
By Bless Aubrey Ogerio
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REENER landscapes still carry the promise of protection, but trees and mangroves alone cannot keep swelling waters at bay. At a forum organized by Forest Foundation Philippines on September 9, experts underscored that as much as nature-based solutions (NBS) are vital in addressing the country’s flood woes, these must be reinforced by innovations and coordinated policies across agencies. Dixon Gevana of the University of the Philippines Los Baños Forestry Development Center pointed to degraded ecosystems as a root cause, worsened by farmland conversions into industrial estates and built-up zones. He said that while the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) is building an NBS support network, it cannot succeed unless agencies such as the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH), the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) and the Department of Agriculture (DA) move in step. “Flood management should no longer rely only on grey infrastructure, but must also involve green,” Gevana said, adding that local governments could become strong champions if NBS is woven into their development plans. Forest Foundation Philippines executive director Edwina Garchitorena echoed this stance, stressing that natural defenses are only part of a “total package” that must include engineering fixes and social interventions. She warned that land use change in uplands and floodplains remains a critical driver of flooding and observed that agencies often “speak different languages” when pursuing projects. “When DPWH builds coastal roads, its language is not the same as that of mangrove conservation. NBS should bridge those gaps, not pit conservation against development,” she said.
A systemic problem
THE stakes are rising as storms intensify. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration expected up to 16 cyclones to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility between August and December 2025. The total activity for the year is projected at 16 to 19, still near the historical norm of 19 to 20 storms annually. For Simon Snoxell, head of cooperation at the Embassy of Canada to the Philippines, the urgency is clear. He explained how flooding disrupted his daughter’s school twice during her first week in Metro Manila, an experience he said underscored how deeply the problem touches daily life and the economy. “It is a very, very serious issue, and one that affects more residents in Metro Manila, including the economy,” Snoxell said, noting Continued on A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 57.0570 n JAPAN 0.3857 n UK 77.3750 n HK 7.3363 n CHINA 8.0218 n SINGAPORE 44.5097 n AUSTRALIA 37.7261 n EU 67.2588 n KOREA 0.0411 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.2140 Source: BSP (September 19, 2025)