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BITTERSWEET YEAR FOR PHL IN 2016–‘FENG SHUI’ EXPERT By Ma. Stella F. Arnaldo Special to the BusinessMirror

HE fire element will dominate 2016, making it a generally “good, no problem” year for the economy. Speaking to the BusinessMirror before the launch of his book, titled Feng Shui Essentials for the Year of the Fire Monkey, at the Manila Hotel on Monday, noted feng shui expert Joseph Chau said 2016 will be lucky for industries dominated by the fire element, such as electronics, electricity, gasoline/fuel business, computers, telecommunications, restaurants and financial market. “The metal elements—machinery, banking, car sales, raw materials for medical supplies—are also lucky,” he added. The Year of the Fire Monkey swings in on February 8, 2016. See “Bittersweet,” A2

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‘P-Noy successor should aim for ₧1-T annual infra budget’ T

INSIDE

he next administration needs to ramp up infrastructure spending to 7 percent to 10 percent of GDP—from the current goal of 5 percent of GDP—to really make an impact on the country’s growth and competitiveness, Public Works Secretary Rogelio L. Singson said.

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SINGSON: “We should start ramping up to 7 [percent] to 10 percent of GDP, especially if the government goes to rail projects.”

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This would mean an annual spending target of about P1 trillion for infrastructure upgrade, considering the country’s estimated $285billion GDP. This, Singson said, is possible if the capacity constraints are addressed and the rail projects are pursued. “We told the [construction industry] three years ago that we will grow in infrastructure investments by 30 percent annually, and no one was listening. Now if the next

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administration seizes this opportunity [of growing infrastructure investments], we should not only be at 5 percent of GDP. We should start ramping up to 7 [percent] to 10 percent of GDP, especially if the government goes to rail projects,” Singson said at the sidelines of the Innovation Infrastructure Congress, organized by the European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines. Under the Aquino administration, the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) has been concentrating on cleaning up the house— streamlining procedures; improving the absorptive capacity of the agencies and local government units; and plugging fund leakages—and sees the target of infrastructure spending reaching 5 percent of GDP by 2016 as an uphill climb. See “P-Noy successor,” A2

BELMONTE FINALLY GIVES UP ON INCOME TAX-REFORM BILL By Jovee Marie N. dela Cruz

ollowing the strong position of the Palace against the tax-reform proposals, Speaker Feliciano Belmonte Jr. on Tuesday said even the measure seeking to adjust the levels of taxable income to inflation is now considered dead in the House of Representatives. Belmonte, in an interview with reporters, said the measure can no longer be passed by the House in the 16th Congress due to lack of time. The leadership of the 16th Congress was pushing for the said proposal as a compromise to the measure lowering income and corporate tax rates, which was also strongly opposed by the Palace. “There’s no time for a real big tax reform which is needed, because adjusting the levels of taxable income to infla-

tion is a very partial reform; we should have more time for bigger reform,” he said. “You better spend your time on somethingthatwillgetapprovedrather than what will not be approved. Our time better spent on other things that are doable, desirable.” Based on the legislative calendar, Congress will adjourn on December 19 and resume on January 19, 2016. The third and last regular session of the 16th Congress is expected to be cut short, because of the 2016 national and local elections in May. President Aquino, taking the cue from the Department of Finance (DOF) and the Bureau of Internal Revenue, has repeatedly rejected the passage in Congress of a longpending bill mandating adjustments in individual and corporate income-tax rates, saying that the government “cannot put our fiscal

sustainability and credit rating at risk by doing piecemeal revenuereducing legislation.” The DOF has said the proposal may cause the government to lose revenues totaling as much as 1.5 percent of the country’s GDP, or P30 billion. President Aquino said he is still not backing income-tax reforms, until there is no compensating revenue measure on the table. The President also asked the proponents of the tax-reform proposals to first seek solid sources of funds to fill in the projected fiscal gap from foregone revenue seen to ensue from proposed adjustments. He also asked Congress leaders to first find a “balance” that would offset the P30-billion revenue loss from the proposed tax-reform measure, which the next administration could reverse by raising taxes anew.

‘Income inequality makes the rich more Scrooge-like’

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By Catherine N. Pillas

s the annual “season of giving” dawns, a new study finds that stark income inequity— a dramatically rising trend in the United States—makes the “haves” less generous toward others. Higher-income people were less inclined to be generous both when they came from states where income inequality is high and when they were made to believe that there was a sharp divide between rich and poor, a new study found. And they were less charitable in both cases than were low-income people. Since the 1980s—the end of a 30-year period during which the middle class flourished in the US—wealth has grown increasingly concentrated at the top of the economic ladder, while low-income Americans have commanded a smaller and smaller share of the nation’s wealth.

PESO exchange rates n US 47.1470

In 2013 the top 0.1 percent of households received approximately 10 percent of the pretax income, versus approximately 3 percent to 4 percent between 1951 and 1981. The Congressional Budget Office reckoned that between 1979 and 2007, households controlling the top 1 percent of the nation’s wealth increased their incomes 275 percent, while the incomes of those in the economy’s lowest tier picked up a mere 18 percent. A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on Monday compared the giving patterns of rich and poor two ways. Using results from a nationally representative survey that included a donation opportunity at the end, researchers looked at how patterns of giving corresponded to wealth distribution in donors’ home states. See “Income inequality,” A2

ALIW GROUNDBREAKING RITES The Aliw Broadcasting Corp. (ABC) on Tuesday held its groundbreaking ceremony for the 50,000-watt tower of dwIZ 882 radio in Obando, Bulacan. Photo shows (from left) Ryan Flores, regional operations executive of ABC; Abet Sikat, vice president for sales and marketing of ABC; Bernard Villasor, municipal administrator of Obando; Josephine Reyes, president/CEO of ABC; Randy Cabangon, vice president and general manager of ABC; Eugene Castro, network engineer of ABC; Maricel Lacsamana, president of One Mari Builders, contractor; and Ricky Alegre, senior vice president of ABC, at the groundbreaking rites. Stephanie Tumampos

n japan 0.3838 n UK 71.2721 n HK 6.0834 n CHINA 7.3787 n singapore 33.2724 n australia 33.8943 n EU 50.1173 n SAUDI arabia 12.5709

Source: BSP (24 November 2015)

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Bittersweet. . .

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BusinessMirror

Continued from A1

He also said it will be a “bittersweet” year for the country: “Before the elections [May 9, 2016], it will be bitter. It means the relationship between the government and the people won’t be harmonious; there will be much discontent. Businesspersons have to wait and expect some change. After the elections, it will be sweet, and businesspersons will have the clear picture from the government, and then they are able to cope with the change to the new President. Everything will settle down in the handover to the new President and new Cabinet members. That means after August 8, everything will be better and better, and go on the right track; businesspersons will adapt to a new policy.” He explained that August is a lucky month for the Philippines. A respected geomancer based in Hong Kong, Chau gives a general forecast of the economy and political climate of the Philippines every year, based on the country’s official birthdate of 3 p.m., June 12, 1898, or the first declaration of Philippine Independence in Kawit, Cavite. “That means the Philippines has too much of the fire element. We need a president that has a lot of water [to cool the fire] or a lot of metal [i.e., fire can forge metal].” This is why, he also stressed, that the one “who wants to be President of the Philippines should be born in autumn [or the months August, September, November, December of any year]; it cannot be summertime. It’s better that they have the water or metal element. So the chance for them to win in next year’s elections is higher.” He added that, in the Year of the Fire Monkey, “women will be luckier

than men.” He declined to confirm that this would mean the winner of the presidential elections in 2016 will be a woman, underscoring that “becoming president is not so simple. There are so many external and internal factors that influence [one’s destiny to become a president],” adding that exact hour and day of one’s birth is crucial in forecasting a person’s chances in any undertaking, whether it be running for higher office, a promotion, a love match or wedding, etc. The monkey, he said, is smart, intelligent, cunning “and also cheats; everyone must be alert to swindlers, because there are so many.” Thus, he warns of investment scams or getrich-quick schemes, fake medical practitioners who charge an arm and a leg for their services and the like. Meanwhile, the feng shui expert said it will be a challenging 2016 for industries dominated by the wood, water and earth elements. He singles out the tourism industry (water element) as one of those that will face “so many challenges, because of the unstable situation in the country.” Unstable, not because of the coming elections, he explained, but because of taxi drivers, who he said, “will fool you or they will rob you.” Chau said this can be remedied easily by following Jakarta’s lead, i.e., certify taxis that will cater specifically to tourists and which charge a lower fare than the regular cabs that ferry ordinary citizens. “If the Philippines does it this way, no problem,” adding that the so-called reports on the alleged laglag-bala, or bullet-planting, scam at the Naia, which have gone viral, will not deter tourists, but dishonest taxi drivers would. Since the tourism industry is

forecast to bring in tepid numbers next year, the famed geomancer said the local hotel industry will also find itself in a slump. “There are so many hotels that have established in the Philippines, but there are only a few guests. We Chinese have a saying, ‘A bucket of congee, but there are so many monks, so how can you share?’ Even the casino is not a good business; they are losing money now.” A recent report by the United Nations-World Trade Organization noted the dip in hotel-occupancy rates in Manila to 68 percent in the first half of 2015, almost two percentage points lower than the same period in 2014. (See, “Hotel occupancy slipped in H1 2015—UN report” in the BusinessMirror, November 3, 2015.) Others with a water element, such as transportation and logistics, will also not do very well in 2016. Chau also stressed that even though there are many ongoing construction projects, this does not mean the industry will be lucky next year. He advises large construction firms or companies developing new properties to “draw attention to quality. If the quality is no good, even if they have a good name, they will destroy the brand.” Other industries that will experience a slowdown in 2016 are real estate (“because they are full already”), garments, fashion, health, food, lumber and furniture. The lucky signs in 2016 are Pig (1923, 1935, 1947, 1959, 1971, 1983, 1995, 2007); Rat (1924, 1936, 1948, 1960, 1972, 1984, 1996, 2008); Ox (1925, 1937, 1949, 1961, 1973, 1985, 1997, 2009); Snake (1929, 1941, 1953, 1965, 1977, 1989, 2001, 2013); and Goat (1919, 1931, 1943, 1955, 1967, 1979, 1991, 2003, 2015).

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P-Noy successor. . . But Singson said that, with the massive logistics network in Mindanao worth P80 billion now just being started and with the bulk of the DPWH’s P202-billion budget for roads and highways directed to that region, the next administration could accelerate spending to 7 percent to 10 percent of GDP during its tenure. For roads and highways, the DPWH has allocated P97 billion for Mindanao for 2016, with Region 10 taking the lion’s share of P30 billion, and Regions 9 and 11 taking P19 billion each. This does not include the P10 billion given directly to the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). The National Capital Region (NCR) only got P20 billion. This is a marked shift from the previous years’ trend of allocating the bulk of the budget to the NCR, Singson added. The private sector, however, needs to overcome the capacity constraints it faces, especially in Mindanao—the most underinvested area in the country in terms of infrastructure—to help meet the target. Singson said the construction sector—the cement industry, in particular—does not have enough capacity to meet the burgeoning infrastructure development in the region,

Continued from A1

citing that some manufacturers are now relying heavily on imported cement. There is also the problem of lack of qualified contractors in the area. Another problem—but out of the private sector’s hands—is the usual tussle with the local government units in the supply of aggregates, the main component of concrete. A factor that could also prop up the nex t administration’s infrastruc ture spending, Singson said, is the pursuit of the rail projects. “‘I’ve always maintained that we need more railways. That’s why I advocated a subway to the National Economic and Development Authority [Neda]. That’s now part of the transportation road map for the NCR. We’re now implementing a high-standard highways. The Department of Transportation and Communications, together with Jica [Japan International Cooperation Agency], has come up with a transport road map, which integrates road network with rail system,” Singson said. One of the government’s largest publicprivate partnership (PPP) projects, the Laguna Lakeshore Expressway Dike (LLED), is still a “go,” Singson said, as the government is now

Income inequality. . . Of the 1,498 people who participated in that survey, donation by those with household incomes above $125,000 was more prevalent among those who lived in states in which income inequality was low. Among wealthier survey-takers from states with higher-income inequality, fewer took the opportunity to donate. The authors also conducted an experiment in which 704 people were presented with simulated information portraying their home states as having either high- or low-income inequality, and then given the opportunity to bestow raffle tickets on another participant. When they were prompted to believe they

working on addressing the issues aired by the Team Trident consortium, composed of the country’s largest conglomerates and a prequalified bidder. “That’s still a go, as far as I’m concerned. One bidder has aired their concerns, and we’re trying to address that. January 7 is the current deadline for bidding,” Singson said. He detailed the issues aired by Team Trident—which is composed of the Sy group, Ayala, Aboitiz and Megaworld—relating to termination provisions and environmental resharing.“ One of the issues they raised was the termination provision, whether by default of the grantor or the private sector. Second is the environmental resharing, ano ba extent ng risk nila, if may toxic waste, those kinds of issues,” Singson said. The P123-billion LLED project is not covered by the election ban on government spending that will take effect on March 16, as PPP projects involve private funds, not government money. This situation gives the agency some leeway in adjusting the timeline, although it is still sticking to the January 7 deadline. The DPWH chief said a notice of award can be given within 30 days after the January 7 bidding.

Continued from A1

lived in a state with high-income inequality, those with household incomes above $125,000 were less generous than when they believed incomes in their state were more equitably distributed. The authors found no such difference in donor behavior among people whose household income was below $15,000.The new findings may actually somewhat improve the view of wealthy Americans among social-science researchers. A wide range of recent studies had suggested that wealthy Americans are, across the board, less generous than less wealthy Americans. This study suggests that that stinginess is, at least, more prominent where the rich are richer and the poor are poorer. The researchers, led by Stanford

University sociologist Robb Willer, surmised that wealthy people embedded in a milieu where rich and poor live in starkly different circumstances may feel more entitled to their moneyed status, or more threatened by the prospective loss of privilege that would come if resources more evenly distributed. They may feel that the system whereby wealth is apportioned is fairer because they so rarely come into contact with the poor. And the authors of the study do not shrink from its obvious implications: Progressive taxation policies and social services that lift up the poor might not only lift their boats. They might also make the rich more generous about pitching in a penny or two to do so. MCT

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BusinessMirror

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Economy

A4 Wednesday, November 25, 2015 • Editors: Vittorio V. Vitug and Max V. de Leon

‘Tap Malampaya fund to bankroll mass production of SALt lamps’

en. Ralph G. Recto on Tuesday said the government should use part of the P170- billion Malampaya Fund to bankroll the development and mass production of the Sustainable Alternative Lighting (SALt) lamps. Recto made the proposal after saltwater-powered LED lamp inventor Aisa Mijeno called for financial support for the mass production of her invention. Mijeno, CEO of SA Lt, shared the stage with US President Barack Obama and Chinese billionaire Jack Ma of Alibaba at the recently concluded 2015 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit here. R ec to sa id t he gover nment should approach Mijeno and offer her joint-venture engagements. ”Lack of funds cannot be invoked as a reason, because clearly they’re available,” Recto said. Recto added that the government is awash with idle funds— with the P168.9-billion Malampaya royalties as the biggest. A side from Malampaya proceeds, Recto said, the Department of Science and Technlogy’s (DOST) P19.1-billion budget for 2016 features “grants to technology startups, assistance to inventors.” He said the Senate has called the attention of the DOST “to immediately reach out to Mijeno for the possibility of her project being given support.” T he De pa r t ment of Energ y (DOE) will also receive P2.84 billion to bring electricity to 3,150 hard-to-reach households, according to a Department of Budget and Management briefer. On top of this, the DOE would also energize 5,400 households in

off-grid sitios. “If you look at government finances, there should be no problem in finding money for these saltwater lamps,” Recto said. “You don’t even have to seek budget from Congress because some of these funds are off-budget, meaning they can be tapped without having to go through the annual appropriations route, like the Malampaya royalty remittances,” he explained. Recto was referring to the government share from the production of the Malampaya natural-gas field off the coast of Northern Palawan. The fund posted an outstanding balance of P168.9 billion as of May 31, 2015. Since 2002, the government has received a total of P210.9 billion from the production well ’s operator. Releases from this fund reached P42 billion, Recto said, citing an official Bureau of the Treasury report. Next year Malampaya remittances are projected to hit P34.7 billion. “This means, on a daily basis, Malampaya is pumping P91.7 million into the government coffers,” Recto said. The government’s “daily windfall alone is more than enough” to finance the development of SALt’s full potential, he said. “If reports are true that P20 million is what the developers initially need to jump-start the lamp’s production, then just six hours’ worth of Malampaya would be enough,” Recto added. One saline solution-powered lamp, which can produce up to 90 lumens of light, is said to cost $20, plus $3 every six months for the replacement anode. PNA

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Govt urged anew to simplify MSME tax filing, payment

By Butch Fernandez

aying that repeated pitch for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) at the recent Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) meetings should not be reduced to mere lip service, the chairman of the Senate Ways and Means panel prodded the government to simplify the process of tax filing and payment for MSMEs if it wants them to be competitive and penetrate the global market.

At the same time, Sen. Juan Edgardo Angara cited a recent World Bank global review on doing business, which showed the Philippines faring poorly in terms of helping small businesses fulfill their tax obligations because its tax schedules are too frequent even for those making small payments, resulting in huge man-hours lost to those for whom such is a key factor in productivity. The World Bank’s Paying Taxes 2016 study ranked the Philippines at 126th, down one notch from its rank last year. The study showed “the Philippines neither improved nor regressed in the time (193 hours) and number of payments (36) it

takes for a medium-sized firm to comply with tax obligations.” Angara was incredulous at the irony: “Business tycoons who own multibillion corporations have the same requirements as sari-sari store owners and sidewalk vendors who may not be computer literate and who can’t afford to hire accountants.” This, he stressed, should not be the case. “We should make it easy for small players to form a business and pay taxes. We should streamline the process, lessen the steps and requirements, and ease the formalities that cause red tape,” Angara said. The senator is one of the main

Jica turns over 17 heavy machines for post-Yolanda rehab, recovery By Lorenz S. Marasigan

advocates in Congress of tax reforms, especially the reduction of individual and corporate-tax rates that are among the highest in the region or, alternatively, the indexing to inflation of the taxable income brackets, which he said were set way back 1997. Angara said in a news statement issued on Tuesday that the recent Apec meetings had given attention to the problems of MSMEs, and the Philippine government should follow up on this with aggressive initiatives not just to cut tax rates or adjust them to inflation but also to encourage the small businesses to fulfill tax duties by making it easier for them to do so. Speaking partly in Filipino, the senator said that “if the Apec attendees and delegates have a special lane or treatment, the small entrepreneurs should, too. How we can make the Philippines MSMEfriendly should be one of the priorities of the government after Apec as we all aim for inclusive growth.” The 23rd Apec Economic Leaders’ Meeting Declaration in Manila had noted “the significance of the participation of MSMEs in global commerce to inclusive growth.” The Declaration said the membereconomies “will take action to facilitate such participation.” Among the strategies discussed in Apecrelated forums were e-commerce, financing, trade facilitation and institutional support. MSMEs represent 98 percent of all registered businesses, it was underscored in all meetings both before

and during the Apec week. Even China’s second richest man Jack Ma, the Alibaba founder, had pointed to the tax issue when US President Barack Obama asked him at the Apec CEO Summit how, he thought, could the government and big business help the small entrepreneurs. Ma had a short answer: “Government is simple. Just reduce the tax, or no tax for these guys.” The government is actually already offering tax incentives to small businesses under Republic Act 9178, or the Barangay Micro Business Enterprises (BMBE) Act of 2002, according to Angara. However, many small entrepreneurs are not aware of this, or find the registration and requirements too cumbersome; and therefore do not access the perks. The BMBE law mandates that a barangay microenterprise with a total asset of P3 million or less is exempted from tax on the income arising from the operation of the enterprise, and exemption from or reduced rates of local taxes, fees and charges. Angara said that if the government would only shift from regulatory to developmental mode, and encourage the informal sector to venture into the mainstream economy, such would benefit both the MSMEs and the national economy. “The small businessmen mostly believe that if they stay underground, they can avoid bureaucratic fees and costs. We must make them understand that there is a benefit to having themselves registered and mainstreamed.”

briefs quinta market to create new commercial hub in manila

he regional office of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) in Eastern Visayas has received 17 new heavy machineries from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (Jica) as part of the rehab and recovery program for Supertyphoon Yolanda. Public Works Secretary Rogelio L. Singson listed the equipment as seven units of dump trucks; three hydraulic excavators—wheel type; two hydraulic excavators—crawler type; two units of payloaders; two units of pneumatic concrete crushers; and one motor grader. The equipment, seen to supplement its existing heavy equipment for clearing operations, were handed over by Jica Chief Coordinator Kenichi Shirouzo to Public Works Regional Director Rolando M. Asis. “One of the reasons Jica donated us with these machines is because they are made aware of the challenges we’ve encountered clearing the roads in the aftermath of Supertyphoon Yolanda with inadequate and very old equipment,” he said. Asis added that the additional equipment donated by the Japanese government would enhance the capability of the public-works regional office in responding to future emergencies or calamities. Yolanda pummeled the Eastern Visayas region in November 2013, prompting local and foreign parties to pledge a total of $1.64 billion in aid. However, according to Budget Secretary Florencio B. Abad, only P1.2 billion cash and P1.3 billion in noncash pledges were received by the government as of September 2015. Most of the pledges, he said, were coursed through non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and multilateral institutions. The Aquino administration has adopted the Comprehensive Rehabilitation and Recovery Plan (CRRP), which aims to build back better, faster and safer in the areas devastated by Yolanda. In less than a year, the government produced the CRRP adopting the Cluster Framework Approach, which pursues a consultative and participatory process among national and local government agencies, the private sector, development partners, civil-society organizations and communities. The National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) estimated that Yolanda-related official development assistance (ODA) projects amounted to $2.16 billion by the end of 2014. The Neda said the amount covered 39 active programs and projects funded by both ODA loans and grants. This list included only ODA projects implemented by government line agencies. The planning body said the bulk of the amount, or $1.88 billion, was composed of ODA loans for five projects, while the remaining $282.91 million were grants covering 34 projects. The two biggest loans, totaling $1 billion, were funded by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank. The ADB funded the $500-million Emergency Assistance for Relief and Recovery from Typhoon Yolanda, while the World Bank financed the $500-million Second Development Policy Loan to Foster More Inclusive Growth: Supplemental Financing for Post-Typhoon Recovery.

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THE Manila City government is expecting that the soon-to-be completed Quinta Public Market in Quiapo, Manila, will spark the development of a new commercial hub in the city, as it will expand trading opportunities via the Pasig River. In a news statement, Manila City Engr. Roberto Bernardo said the Quinta market will be making full use of the Pasig River route to attract traders and consumers from Metro Manila and nearby provinces. He said this was what Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada has envisioned in undertaking the renovation of the market. “Mayor Estrada wants to construct a fish port near the market to service barges coming from various locations, especially Navotas, and even from as far as General Santos City, which will be bringing fresh produce,” Bernardo said. Bernardo noted that the city government will not spend a single centavo for the renovation of the market since its partner Market Life Leasing Corp. has invested some P100 million to P120 million for the undertaking. Joel R. San Juan

house bill proposes doubling of veterans’ monthly pension

Pork stew to go

A group of workers unfurl a huge tarpaulin billboard of a bowl of pork stew for a popular fast-food chain along Edsa in Quezon City early this week. Billboard advertising remains to be a popular and effective mode to entice consumers to buy, especially in populated areas and traffic-prone thoroughfares like Edsa. Nonoy Lacza

LTFRB opens bidding for point-to-point premium-bus services in Metro Manila

HREE franchise packages for premium point-to-point bus services are up for grabs, as the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB) opened on Tuesday the bidding for the contracts. The agency, according to LTFRB Chairman Winston M. Ginez, saw a demand for premium-bus services in Metro Manila, with the board identifying six routes with huge volumes of passengers during peak hours. These are Fairview-Makati Central Business District (CBD) and Ortigas CBD-Makati CBD (Package 1); Katipunan-Makati CBD and Eastwood-Makati CBD (Package 2); and AlabangOrtigas CBD and Alabang-Makati CBD (Package 3). “We want to alleviate the plight of daily commuters who had difficulty traveling during peak hours from specific routes due to insufficient number of bus services that need to transport a huge volume of passengers,” Ginez said. Interested bus operators must submit their qualification documents on January 15. A prequalification conference will be held on December 1 at the LTFRB’s main office in Quezon City. Ginez said premium point-to-point bus services are airconditioned units and must either be single or double deck at 11 to 13 meters in length; with external color/branding to be specified by the board; uses Euro IV or better emission standard or clean alternative fuel with equivalent or better emission; low floor entry with space for one passenger with wheelchair; and maximum of four reclining seats per row. Selected applicants to operate any of the packages must

ensure that at least half of the allocated units per route be available within six months from the notice of selection and before being granted certificate of public convenience (CPC). Failure to comply with the delivery schedule will disqualify the selected applicant, and another round of public lottery will be conducted by the board to select the next applicant from the previously qualified applicants, Ginez said. The remaining half of the allocated units must be available within a year from the grant of the CPC, otherwise, it will result in the cancellation of the franchise. Suggested one-way fares for the service range from P60 to P160, depending on the route. The above interim point- to-point bus services will only be deployed by the selected bus operators during peak hours, from 6 to 8 a.m. and from 5 to 7 p.m. “The applicants must meet the minimum number of vehicle required for the route or routes applied for. The air-conditioned units must be 11 to 13 meters in length, with Wi-Fi Internet connection, maximum of four seats per row, not more than 5 years old, and free of exterior dents, major blemishes or discoloration that could mar the external appearance of the vehicle,” Ginez said. Applicants are allowed to submit up to two or more interim service- routes application; however, the agency reserves the right to deny any application if the selected applicant would result in insufficiency of public-utility vehicles along their authorized route. Lenie Lectura

A measure increasing the monthly pension of Filipino veterans from the present P5,000 to P10,000 has been filed at the House of Representatives. Under House Bill 6230, authored by Chairman of the Committee on Veterans Affairs and Welfare and Liberal Party Rep. Herminia B. Roman of Bataan, a veteran who is at least 65 years of age shall be paid an old-age pension of P10,000 monthly for life, unless he is actually receiving a similar pension for the same consideration from other government funds. The lawmaker said the current pension of P5,000 enacted almost 21 years ago is clearly not enough to meet the basic necessities for decent living. “The veterans have sacrificed much for the county. They invested blood, sweat and tears and, in return, it is only fitting that we repay their service by taking care of them in their old age,” Roman added. She also said the veterans have dedicated their lives in the service of the country. “They should be able to live out the rest of their days comfortably without worrying about their basic needs,” she said. “Sad to say that, at present, our veterans face a new challenge, which is the hardships of old age along with meager resources that they must stretch in order to survive,” Roman said. According to Roman, the proposed increase of benefits for the veterans is a way to show the nation’s grateful appreciation of their bravery, service and sacrifice. “We must recompense them in a manner more fitting to what they have given,” she said. Jovee Marie N. dela Cruz

probe d.o.t.’s star-grading system A lawmaker has recently filed a resolution urging the House Committee on Tourism to probe the implementation of the Department of Tourism’s (DOT) Memorandum Circular 2012-02, which prescribed a star-grading system for hotel, resorts and apartment hotels. In House Resolution 2503, United Nationalist Alliance Rep. Gwendolyn F. Garcia of Cebu City said there are claims that the star-rating system implemented by the DOT is only a “waste of time, effort and government funds.” According to the lawmaker, several accommodation establishments assail not only the veracity of the results of the star ratings issued by the DOT, but also the propriety, necessity and wisdom of the star-rating system. In her resolution, Garcia added that the DOT received $7.1-million technical assistance grant from the government of Canada through the Canadian International Development Agency to fund the skills training programs for the private sector, local government units, civil society and DOT agencies, and to implement the new system of accreditation and the development of standards for service quality. Jovee Marie N. dela Cruz

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Economy BusinessMirror

Wednesday, November 25, 2015 A5

Coal plants seen to end Mindanao power woes by June 2016

By Manuel T. Cayon | Mindanao Chief Bureau

AVAO CITY—Between now and June next year would be the critical period for the energy sector in Mindanao before a dramatic shift to a power-surplus regime with the anticipated entry and activation of at least four coal plants by the middle of next year, a Davao Light and Power Co. (DLPC) executive here said on Monday.

Arturo Milan, chief operations officer of DLPC, said the heavy reliance of the Mindanao grid to hydroelectric source of power is seen to impact heavily on the availability of power when the summer heat would dry up the water of Lake Lanao and Pulangui River in Bukidnon. Although the rains have raised the water levels at the two monitoring stations of the National Power Corp. in the Agus River network in the Lanao provinces and the sole monitoring station in Maramag, Bukidnon, the water levels, however, have been sucking up mud that force periodic curtailments of electric supply across the island. Electric distribution companies in Mindanao have been told to brace for the same worse scenario to come by first semester of next year. Milan said that while Mindanao would expect the coal plants to come in succession late this year to the entire year of next year, their full capacities would not be coming in by the time the El Niño dry spell would also be at its peak next year. The Aboitiz-owned coal plant in Binugao, Toril, west of this city, has began to put online to the grid its one unit of 150 megawatts (MW) and its second unit would be coming in by the first quarter next year, he said. A public PowerPoint presentation by the transmission firm, National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP), said the Toril coal plant would put into commercial operation its second unit by March next year. This coal plant is managed by the the Aboitiz subsidiary, Therma South Inc. The NGCP said that earlier last month, the solar plant in Kirahon, Lanao del Norte, was also put into commercial operation bringing in 10 MW to the grid. The Alcantara and Sons-owned coal plant in Sarangani would also begin supplying 100 MW by January 25 next year, the NGCP said. The first unit of the coal plant of the Filinvest Land Inc. in Misamis Oriental would also be connected to the grid by April, while one unit of the SMC Global Power Holdings Corp. in Malita, Davao del Sur, would be put to commercial operation by March, the NGCP added.

PIDS sets evaluation of government employment, cash dole-out projects

By Cai U. Ordinario

tate-owned think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) will be conducting impact-evaluation studies on an employment project and two other major government projects. The National Economic and Development Authority said the evaluation studies will be funded by a AUS$2.8 million, or roughly P9.5 million, worth of assistance from the Australian government. The evaluation will be done through the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, which aims to evaluate three major development programs, namely, the Special Program for the Employment of Students (SPES), the Sustainable Livelihood Program and the Payapa at Masaganang Pamayanan (Pamana-Peace and Development Program. “In developing countries such as the Philippines, impact evaluation is vital in identifying what programs or projects work and what do not,” Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said in a news statement. “It helps policy-makers ensure that public and donor funds are used prudently, and that limited resources are directed toward more efficient development interventions,” he added. The Department of Labor and Employment project SPES is designed to link low-income youth aged 15 to 25 to formal work opportunities during school’s semestral or summer breaks. The impact-evaluation study, thus, aims to determine how SPES affects the students’ school participation, as well as their income, work hours and the duration of job search. The study on the Sustainable Livelihood Program of the Department of Social Welfare and Development, meanwhile, will determine the extent that livelihood and employment opportunities provided to recipients of conditional cash transfers helped beneficiary families. The impact on conflict-affected areas of the Pamana Peace and Development Program, handled by the Office of the Presidential Advisor on the Peace Process, will, likewise, be evaluated. Apart from these projects, Balisacan said the Supreme Court has also expressed its interest to subject its project, titled Access to Justice by the Poor, to impact evaluation. “To me, that is a very interesting development; for them to be willing to be subjected to the discipline of impact evaluation is very encouraging,” Balisacan added. “As we approach the end of the current administration, we are confident that we have put in place an enabling environment where the appreciation, conduct of evaluation and subsequent use of evaluation findings in policy and investment decisions are fully embedded in government programs, projects and processes,” he added.

While these new baseloads would be expected to ease another round of energy crisis, Milan said the changing target schedules and the less than full capacities in the first half would remain a critical period for Mindanao. “But after this critical period, Mindanao can now safely say that it has the excess supply that we can say as reserve power,” he said. “It’s unlike now that we are all talking about scheduling

our power supply and to adapt rotating brownouts to distribute power needs rationally to our customers,” Milan added. Davao City Mayor and reported presidential aspirant Rodrigo Duterte, who was asked of his opinion about the role of the coal plants, said on Sunday that the power shortage in Mindanao would force “me to accept coal to remedy the situation.” “We can not deny that Mindanao is

really in a bad shape about electricity. So we just have to accept that these coal plants would help,” he said. The four coal plants coming in would have a combined capacity of 2,115 MW, with the Malita coal plant in Barangay Culaman accounting for slight more than half of this total with 1,200 MW. The Filinvest coal plant in Villanueva, Misamis Oriental, has 405 MW; the Alsons plant in Barangay

Kamanga, Maasim, Sarangani, with 210 MW. The Aboitiz plant here has 300 MW; with a planned expansion of another additional 300 MW. These plants would cover for more than the projected peak demand of 1,711 MW by November next year as computed by the NGCP, based on projections from the electric distribution utilities in the cities and the rural electric cooperatives in the provinces.

A6 Wednesday, November 25, 2015 • Editor: Angel R. Calso

Opinion BusinessMirror

editorial

Welcoming the ADB, Jica investment fund

he news that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (Jica) have recently established a $16-billion investment fund for financing infrastructure projects in the Asia-Pacific region is most welcome. The fund will serve as a guarantee that ADB, with Jica support, will be able to underwrite most of the infrastructure requirements of the Asia-Pacific countries. Whether intended, this expanded ADB facility will serve to neutralize some of the attractiveness of the new Chinese-established and -sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Many of the countries that signed up to join that bank did so, partly to hedge their reliance on ADB, and partly to ensure that they are not left behind in the receipt of manna from China, whatever that may be. With ADB now in control of an expanded facility and China sliding into stagnation, the anxiety of Asia-Pacific countries may now be bereft of objective basis. The $16-billion fund, as announced by ADB, will finance infrastructure projects undertaken by the private sector, including those won in public-private partnership schemes. The governor of ADB is quoted as saying that the fund will be used to assist in the establishment mainly of urban transport, renewable-energy projects and climate-mitigation programs in the countries of Asia and the Pacific. The ADB, at the same time, announced that, with Jica and itself contributing $5 billion each, it will administer another $10-billion fund for sovereign borrowers undertaking sustainable infrastructure projects. Given a well-known inability of some governments in the region to produce carefully crafted infrastructure-development plans eligible for financing, the fund will include technical assistance for preparing and implementing projects. In aiming its financial assistance to specific projects and programs, the ADB announced that its financing program in the large will focus on the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) identified by 193 countries, including the Philippines, in September 2015. The core of these SDGs consists of the establishment of resilient infrastructure; the promotion of inclusive industrialization; and the acceleration of development through technological innovation. All these are welcome developments for ADB member-countries. They have enjoyed low interest loans for industrial sector development and infrastructure projects in the past. With the Japanese government now generously coming into the scene, they will have access to more abundant resources in the years ahead. What about AIIB? Explicitly stated or not, the objective of China is to use AIIB to wean Asia-Pacific countries away from the Japan- and US-dominated ADB, and bring them into the Chinese ambit. So AIIB will be there somewhere offering an additional facility to its membercountries. But Asia-Pacific countries should not overly work themselves up. They should judge the matter from their own perspective. The Philippines is not interested in joining, at least not at this time; while some bosom friends of the US, like Australia and even some European countries, have signed up for membership. All these countries should avail themselves of AIIB’s resources if these are available for development purposes without any strings more than that of the ADB financing.

Moving toward inclusive growth Susie G. Bugante

All About Social Security

hile the excitement from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) meeting hosted by the Philippine government last week has simmered down, the issues and challenges linked with this year’s Apec theme—“Building Inclusive Economies, Building a Better World”—remain as major concerns for the 21 member-economies under the regional organization. The Apec had identified inclusive growth as the “overarching objective” of the 2015 meeting, and the Social Security System (SSS) is proud of its continuing contributions and significant role in the country’s drive toward this goal. Under the present SSS administration, several initiatives targeting the highly vulnerable and hard-to-reach workers from the informal sector were launched by the SSS. Informal sector workers (ISWs) are deemed vulnerable for they often lack readily accessible and established sources of financial support during times of contingencies. In contrast, their counterparts in the formal sector are normally entitled

to various employee benefits as part of their compensation package. ISWs are also harder for the SSS to reach. A significant share of this population is based in far-flung places and locations with inadequate infrastructure and banking facilities, such as farmers, fishermen and cottage industry workers in rural areas. Often self-employed, ISWs have no employer that would facilitate their SSS registration and regular remittance of monthly contributions for them. If unaddressed, these factors only increase the likelihood of these workers’ exclusion from the mantle of protection offered by the SSS. Mindful of these barriers, the

SSS created programs such as the AlkanSSSya, which provides a system for ISWs to save small amounts from their income on a daily basis in a secure coin bank. The storage facility for their SSS savings can be in the form of a metal box or even recycled plastic bottles, as in the case of Payatas garbage pickers covered by the program. Another key feature of the AlkanSSSya Program is the SSS coverage of these workers through their respective informal sector groups, which assume the responsibility of facilitating their members’ SSS registration and regular contribution payments. Apart from the AlkanSSSya Program, another SSS initiative for promoting inclusive growth is the accreditation of cooperatives and microfinance institutions (MFIs) as SSS collecting and servicing partner agents. By partnering with cooperatives and MFIs, the SSS can tap their extensive networks and in effect, help the hard-to-reach workers served by these organizations to gain access to SSS benefits and services. The SSS also implemented the Social Security Subsidy Program for the subsidized SSS contributions of ISWs, as well as emergency workers in typhoon-hit areas; MuniSSSipyo Collect Program that offers workers

The country needs a tough president

wo things clearly tell us that we need a leader who can get things done with firmness and decisiveness. One is our recent hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit where the theme is “inclusive economies,” or economies where the poor directly benefit from economic development by getting access to jobs and income opportunities. The other is the recent coordinated attacks by members of the Islamic State (IS) in Paris, France, that killed 129 people and wounded more than 350 others.

To achieve an inclusive economy, we need a president who will accelerate infrastructure development, implement effective antipoverty programs and ensure the prompt delivery of vital social services, such as education and health, to the citizenry. The leader should also deal firmly with greedy capitalists, smugglers, price manipulators and other economic saboteurs. The Apec summit, staged under the shadow of the Paris tragedy, raises the question: Can a similar terrorist attack take place here, as well? That is not a far-fetched possibility, considering that we have the homegrown Abu Sayyaf, which allegedly declared support to the IS—which claimed responsibility for the carnage in Paris. The

Abu Sayyaf terrorist group has been engaged in kidnapping for ransom, especially of foreigners, since the 1990s, and has gained notoriety for their barbarity, including the recent beheading of a kidnap victim. But the Abu Sayyaf is not our only security problem. Organized crime is just as much a serious peace and order concern, with the Philippine National Police having its hands full going after kidnapping gangs, drug-trafficking syndicates and robbery groups. Adding to the breakdown of law and order is street crime, such as theft, burglary and snatching of cellphones and other valuables, usually perpetrated by motorcycle-riding criminals in city streets. Amid all

this, the citizenry is left wondering whether the government has been rendered helpless in dealing with widespread criminality. Thus, there is now a strong clamor for a leader who can stop criminality using an iron hand, impose discipline in our society and restore the people’s trust and confidence in their government. The demand is for a leader who can really be on top of the situation and take decisive action against those intent on murder and mayhem. And the urgent need is for a leader who will not hesitate to unleash the full force of the law against those

the option to remit their SSS payments at their local municipal office; and the SSS coverage program for job order and contractual workers in state-run offices who are excluded from the mandatory coverage of the Government Service Insurance System. Even the International Social Security Association (ISSA), a global organization that counts over 330 institutions from more than 160 countries under its membership, has recognized the value that these SSS initiatives bring in promoting inclusive growth in the country. For its efforts, the SSS received a certificate of merit with special mention for its “Moving Towards Inclusive Growth” programs during the ISSA Good Practice Awards for Asia and the Pacific held in Muscat, Oman earlier this month. For more information about the Social Security System (SSS) and its programs, call our 24-hour call center at (632) 920-6446 to 55, Monday to Friday, or send an e-mail to member_ relations@sss.gov.ph. Susie G. Bugante is the vice president for public affairs and special events of the SSS. Send comments about this column to susiebugante.bmirror@ gmail.com.

who want to tear the nation apart with their criminal activities. With the 2016 elections barely five months away, right-thinking citizens want to elect a leader who is firm and decisive in coping with the breakdown of law and order, and in ensuring that in the march to economic growth and social progress, no one is left behind. Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte managed to get double-digit approval ratings in popularity surveys of possible presidential bets, mainly because of his tough stance against crime in his home turf. If he can send the criminals in Davao City fleeing to parts unknown, he can do the same in the entire country and let the citizenry go about their daily lives without worrying for their safety and security. That’s why many of his supporters are elated to hear him declare his availability to run for president. Among the declared presidential bets, no one apparently has the political will needed to stamp out crime and corruption in this country and lead us to sustained economic growth. We believe Duterte can lead the Philippines to greatness.

Opinion BusinessMirror

opinion@businessmirror.com.ph

Internal borders aren’t the answer to EU terrorism

The real fight is coming

By Marc Champion | Bloomberg View

F the first casualty of war is the truth, maybe the second is common sense. It’s become common to declare that Europe’s borderless travel zone must go if security is to be restored after the terrorist attacks in Paris. Before abandoning part of the European Union’s (EU) most popular achievement—freedom of movement—let’s think it through.

The argument goes roughly like this: Because borderless travel, established in stages through the 1990s and 2000s, never secured Europe’s external frontier and intelligence sharing, and because the EU is too feckless to make that happen now, the best recourse is to resurrect national borders and put the maintenance of security back into the hands of national governments. Three pieces of evidence are generally provided. First, the Paris attacks were planned in Belgium, a divided state with an ineffectual intelligence service that allowed the Brussels district of Molenbeek to become a safe zone for Europe’s jihadists. Belgium’s failures thus became the problems of its neighbors, too. Exhibit No. 2 is that Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the leader of the Paris attacks and already one of Europe’s most wanted men, was able to travel from Syria to Brussels and back again in 2014, without detection. Finally, weapons: Belgium has a lively black market in arms that can be bought by jihadists and brought onto a train or driven to points anywhere in the EU to launch an attack. Shut the borders, the theory goes, and Belgium’s failure to clamp down on its illegal arms trade becomes less concerning. It would be absurd to argue that these failures didn’t occur. But would repetition be prevented if Europe’s internal borders were permanently resurrected, as France has done temporarily after the Paris attacks? The first thing to say is that even when there were border controls between the 26 European countries that are signatories to the Schengen Agreement that established the free-travel zone from 1995, traffic flows were so great that most cars were waved through, unchecked. That was in the 1980s and 1990s, when cars drove at least 500 million fewer passenger miles per year across Europe than they do now. Restoring Europe’s internal borders today would be like putting border checks on state lines between New York and Washington. How many cars traveling on I-95 would actually be stopped? Let’s say systematic checks were made, turning I-95 into a parking lot. Even then it would be no panacea. On the night after the Paris attacks, French police set up checks along the road to Belgium and stopped Belgianborn Salah Abdeslam, the one Paris gunman who didn’t detonate his suicide belt, three times, according to the lawyer of the man who helped him escape. The police let Abdeslam go because they didn’t recognize him. The manhunt continues. How about weapons? Europe’s illegal small-arms trade draws on weapons that weren’t registered when tougher regulations were imposed in countries such as France. It also involves arms trafficked from the ex-Yugoslav countries (where Bosnians alone are estimated to hold 750,000 private guns left over from the war), and weapons that were neutralized for sale as souvenirs or props and are subsequently reactivated. Restoring Europe’s internal borders might help a little with one part of this trade—imports from the western Balkans—but not by much, according to Nicholas Marsh, a firearms researcher at the Peace Research Institute Oslo. Here’s how he described to me the difference between the size of hammer the EU would wield by ending Schengen, and the tiny nail it would be trying to hit: Even before Schengen came along, you could drive through Europe with hardly any checks at all. Given the amount of commerce and travel, that

would be extremely difficult to change now. Then you have the likely number of weapons being trafficked, we’re talking about a very small number into France per year, no more than a few hundred. So imagine a car carrying five or 10 Kalashnikovs, what is the chance of that car being searched on its way into France? You’d be better off playing the lottery. Far more than in the US, where there is a mass consumer market for small arms, this is a problem that can be addressed only by intelligence and undercover police penetrating the buyers and dealers in organized crime gangs. Disturbingly, says Marsh, who co-wrote a recent United Nations report on arms smuggling, Europe’s governments have less information on the trade on their territories than do their counterparts in Latin America. Putting Belgium in an isolation bubble wouldn’t fix the problem, either. According to a 2010 French government estimate, there were about 4,000 automatic rifles circulating in Paris suburbs such as Saint-Denis, where Abaaoud was found and killed. Someone determined enough to give up his life is unlikely to be deterred from finding a gun in Paris, if the softer Belgian option is closed. To address the terrorist threat, Europe’s governments would need to do what they should do anyway to bring the Schengen system up to date. They would need to harden external borders, preferably by putting them entirely under a jointly run agency such as the EU’s Frontex, using a common terrorist watchlist and fingerprint database. That way, for example, agents at the free-travel zone’s Balkan borders—in Slovenia and Hungary—could check cars and trains heading north. The EU should also put more resources into its existing effort to drain the ex-Yugoslav swamp of weapons and should do a better job of clearing out jihadist cells in weaklink countries such as Belgium. But above all, the answer to nearly all these problems is better intelligence and intelligence sharing. That’s more likely to happen by modernizing a shared system than by retreating behind resurrected national borders. If that’s still unpersuasive, consider that after the attacks of September 11, 2001, the UK—not a Schengen member—was tarred as Europe’s weak link in the defense against jihadist terrorism, just as Belgium is now. London was nicknamed “Londonistan” for letting radical preachers recruit in Mosques and for tolerating the sale of al-Qaeda-style literature up and down the Edgware Road. It’s where Zacarias Moussaoui was radicalized before joining alQaeda’s September 11 plot. So was the “shoe bomber,” Richard Reid, who tried to bring down an American Airlines flight from Paris to Miami. Being out of Schengen didn’t prevent any of these British failures. Nor did it stop the 7/7 bombings on the London underground in 2005, or smaller attacks since. The answer was to fix what was broken in the approach to Islamist extremism, a work still in progress in Britain and perhaps only now beginning in Belgium. The EU’s proposals to fix Schengen’s weaknesses and crack down on Europe’s weapons trade since the November 13 attacks in Paris certainly aren’t enough, and the failure to adjust the free-travel zone’s rules to cope with the sudden influx of refugees from Syria is serious. But if the EU’s responses are implemented, they would do more to counter the terrorist threat than closing borders, and at a far lesser cost.

Teddy Locsin Jr.

Free fire

NLIKE the empty word “inclusive,” which means nothing standing alone—“inclusive” of what?—the initials TPP (TransPacific something, perhaps pahirap) means more than you will ever learn from the people who want it. Ralph Nader told Pulitzer Prize journalist Chris Hedges that the TPP is the most brazen corporate power grab in America, and it will go worse for countries like ours. Its reach will be global and evil, like ISIS but with daily showers, no facial hair and sporting suits instead of pajamas.

TPP allows corporations to bypass the three branches of a democratic government to impose enforceable sanctions by secret tribunals. These tribunals can declare a coun-

try’s minimum wage and labor-safety laws, as well as consumer and environmental protections, to be nontariff barriers and, therefore, illegal. Countries will be fined for

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

noncompliance because TPP can compel democratic governments to pay multinationals all of their taxes for protecting their citizens. It will lift all price controls on essential commodities like food and medicine, while punish any attempt at self-sufficiency as violations of free trade as multinationals will define it, and as violations of global patents on manufactured and natural goods. TPP can mandate that only genetically modified seeds be bought from Monsanto at every planting season at Monsanto’s whimsical prices. TPP, says Nader, will abolish national sovereignty, remove labor standards, and commodify all aspects of human activity, perhaps even human organs —or children if there is money to be made from trading in them. There is a market for them among a certain brand of Caucasian, usually old. This will not help universal equal-

ity, but will favor global slavery. Obama took the occasion of the AsiaPacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) to express in passing his preference for TPP’s corporate combinations in restraint of free and equal trade, over China’s proposal of market-driven, not corporate-dictated, market reforms along a silk route of progress circling the globe. The TPP not Apec is what the left should have rallied against during Apec, except the TPP isn’t here yet. But it will be. By then, the left will have wasted its credibility before the real fight that is coming between national sovereignty and multinational empire, without a shot fired at multinational expense, because our own elected governments will enforce its tyranny. It’s happened before when Filipinos put straw bags with eyeholes over their heads and fingered their fellow countrymen. Keep well.

Mideast chaos, violence won’t end with IS defeat

By Steven R. Hurst | The Associated Press

ASHINGTON—The chaos and violence gripping the Middle East are not likely to evaporate even if the forces arrayed against the Islamic State (IS) group manage to crush the brutal army and its drive to establish an Islamic caliphate in Iraq and Syria and beyond.

Why? The national structures and boundaries created by European colonial powers after the Ottoman Empire was dismantled at the end of World War I are collapsing or already have disintegrated. That has unleashed powerful centrifugal forces that are melting the glue that was holding together increasingly antagonistic religious and ethnic populations. The mix of Muslims—Sunnis, Shiites, Alawites—Christians and the big ethnic Kurdish populations in the north of both Syria and Iraq are a stew of ancient discontent, sectarian frustration and flagrant injustice. Those social explosives were detonated by the upheaval unleashed by the US war in Iraq and the civil war in Syria. “The level of damage that has been done by the United States in Iraq and the civil war in Syria is probably irreparable,” said Wayne Merry, senior associate at the American Foreign Policy Council. In Iraq, Saddam Hussein and his fellow Sunni Muslims—a minority in that country—ruled brutally over the majority Shiite Muslims. The US removed Saddam and eradicated his Baath Party structures, most famously the army. Washington then oversaw the

establishment of a new government that is fundamentally controlled by the Shiites. That new structure subsequently disregarded the needs and rights of the Sunnis. While the US military still controlled the country, radical Sunnis came together under the banner of al-Qaeda in Iraq in a force arrayed against American forces, moderate Sunnis and the Shiites majority. Shiite militias formed to attack from the other side and a civil war erupted. That was only tamped down when Washington instituted the surge of more troops and began paying Sunni tribal leaders and their fighters to turn their guns on fellow Sunnis in al-Qaeda. With the departure of US forces in 2011, al-Qaeda regrouped in the Sunni regions of Iraq and became the IS group, the terrorist organization that also spread into the void created in neighboring Syria by the civil war there, now in its fifth year. Estimates have put IS control of territory as much as one-third of both countries. Particularly important is the terror organization’s control over the cities like Raqqa in Syria and Mosul in Iraq. For months, the US has bombed IS positions with some success and now France and Russia have joined that

effort. Russia turned its attention to IS after a bomb, claimed by the IS group, brought down a Russian airliner over Egypt. The French reacted after the IS attacks in Paris. Military and intelligence experts had said, before the airliner bombing, that Russia had primarily targeted opponents of Syrian leader Bashar alAssad who are not allied with IS but deeply involved in the civil war, fighting to overthrow Assad. The Obama administration insists Assad must be removed. Russia and Iran say he must be part of a political solution, at least temporarily. Regional powers Saudi Arabia and Turkey want him gone. Many analysts saw Russian involvement in Syria as an attempt to save the Assad regime. Syria was a last outpost of Russian influence in the Middle East, home to Russia’s only Mediterranean port and a big customer for Russian weapons. The appeal of IS in Syria grows from the same root as it does in Iraq. And that is the sense of Sunni disenfranchisement. In Syria, unlike Iraq, it is longstanding. Assad is an Alawite Muslim, a subset of Shiism. He and his father before him ruled brutally over the Sunni majority in Syria, much as Saddam killed and brutalized the Shiite majority in Iraq. And none of that deals with the complication added to the chaos in both countries by the ethnic Kurdish drive for a homeland. The Kurds have big populations in northern Iraq, Syria and Iran. And they have periodically been at war with Turkey, where they live in huge numbers in the southeast

of that country. The Kurds have been the strongest American partners in the fight against IS, battling—often with significant success—as a US-allied ground force against IS. They also have created a virtually autonomous, self-governed region in Iraq and control significant Iraqi oil reserves. US backing for the Kurds puts the US at odds both with North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally Turkey, which is also an enemy of Assad in Syria and the Shiite-dominated US-backed Iraqi government in Baghdad. Former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday that a military victory over IS will not end the chaos in the Middle East unless the US, other countries in the region, Russia, Europe and Iran join together to create a “platform of political stability.” But how can such a platform be created in a region that has been unable to overcome a 1,300-year schism in Islam, the Kurdish drive to create a country that the ethnic group has never had and the attendant complications mixed in by a plethora of other religious and ethnic minorities. The defeat of IS, if it happens, will not solve those deep and underlying divisions. A final political solution likely will require the resettlement of large populations driven from their home territories by the Iraq war, the Syrian civil conflict and the expansion of IS. It will require compromises that haven’t been made for centuries. It is a huge mission that will take a long time to accomplish—if it ever can be.