Private consumption weak; Q3 growth seen slow
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HE growth of the Philippine economy may have slowed in the third quarter of 2024 due to a slack in private consumption despite the easing of monetary policy, according to Moody’s Analytics. In its latest economic brief, Moody’s Analytics said Philippine GDP growth will slow to 5.7 percent in the third quarter from the 6.3 percent posted in the second quarter. This will also be the slowest since the 5.5 percent posted in the fourth quarter of 2023. “Government spending and private investment will drive growth, while private consumption
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will be muted because recent rate cuts need time to filter through the economy,” Moody’s Analytics said. “Exports could lose some shine due to soft external demand for Philippine goods and a slower increase in international tourist arrivals,” it added. Inflation is also expected to be higher at 2.3 percent in October compared to the 1.9 percent posted in September this year, which was touted as the slowest in four years. Moody’s Analytics inflation expectation is within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) month ahead forecast of 2 to 2.8 percent. (See: https://businessmirror.
com.ph/2024/11/01/bsp-seesoctober-inflation-at-2-2-8-onfood-prices/). BSP earlier said higher prices of food commodities such as vegetables, fruits, and fish will increase inflation in October. Other factors such as the prices of domestic petroleum products and the peso depreciation will also lead to faster increase in inflation. Nonetheless, BSP said lower prices of rice and meat along with reduced electricity rates are expected to cushion the impact on inflation by higher prices of select food items. Earlier, ANZ Research said it also expects GDP growth to
average 5.7 percent in the July to September 2024 period due to slower private consumption. (See: https://businessmirror. com.ph/2024/11/04/weak-private-consumption-may-haveslowed-q3-growth/). The think tank expects the national government’s consumption to slow to 6.4 percent in the third quarter year on year compared to the 18 percent posted in the second quarter of 2024. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) will release the official estimates for the third quarter performance of the economy on Thursday, November 7. Cai U. Ordinario
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MANUFACTURING’S PMI SLOWS TO 52.9 IN OCT By Cai U. Ordinario
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@caiordinario
ERC MODIFIES DECISION FOR MERALCO TO FORGO 5thRP
UPPLY-SIDE challenges such as material shortages and longer delivery times have led to slower Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) in October for the country’s manufacturing sector.
In Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Global PMI report, the country’s PMI slowed to 52.9 in October 2024 from the 53.7 posted in September 2024. Despite the slowdown, S&P Global Market Intelligence said the October figure was the secondhighest reading since January 2023 which marked a “solid improvement” in the manufacturing sector. “However, firms revealed supply-side challenges, with material shortages resulting in longer delivery times, and cooling buying activity,” Maryam Baluch, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said. “It was also one of the key factors for rising input prices, which was further exacerbated by the depreciation of the peso against the dollar,” she added. Ateneo de Manila University economist Leonardo Lanzona Jr. told BusinessMirror that the decline in the PMI is expected to continue as the Christmas shipment season comes to a close. Lanzona noted that the country’s PMI continues to be well above the 50-mark because of pent up demand thanks to lower inflation rates and the easing cycle of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He added that the “ber” months of September to December are also known for holiday preparations that lead to higher consumer activity and demand for goods. “This seasonal uptick often bolsters various sectors, including food, electronics, and consumer goods, as companies increase production to meet anticipated consumer spending,” Lanzona told BusinessMirror. See “PMI,” A2
By Lenie Lectura @llectura
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HE Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has “modified” an earlier decision which supposedly allowed the Manila Electric Company (Meralco) to forgo the fifth regulatory reset (5thRP) of its distribution rate, covering the period 2022-2026. Reinstated ERC chairperson Monalisa Dimalanta said on Monday that the lat-
est decision was made by the commissioners, which was then headed by ERC Officerin-Charge Jesse Hermogenes T. Andres, while she was placed on preventive suspension by the Office of the Ombudsman. She reported for work last October 31. “I understand that during the last Commission meeting of Usec Jesse last week, the Commission agreed to modify the resolution dispensing See “ERC,” A2
Labor groups to lawmakers: Approve P150 wage hike By Justine Xyrah Garcia
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ITH seven months left in the 19th Congress, several labor groups urged lawmakers to prioritize the passage of the at least 150 increase in the daily minimum wage—a rate they deem essential to easing the financial burden of millions of workers due to rising living costs. The National Wage Coalition
(NWC), comprising the Trade Union Congress of the Philippines, Kilusang Mayo Uno, Bukluran ng Manggagawang Pilipino, and Nagkaisa Labor Coalition, voiced their concern in a protest outside the House of Representatives on Monday. The groups argued that the current system of wage reviews by regional boards has persistently See “Labor,” A2
SILENT TRIBUTE: FLAGS BOW FOR KRISTINE’S VICTIMS The Philippine flag at half-mast in Luneta, Manila, pays tribute to those lost during the deadly onslaught of severe Tropical Storm Kristine. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued Proclamation No. 728, declaring November 4 a Day of National Mourning in solidarity with families devastated by the storm. Kristine swept across the Philippines with torrential rains and powerful winds, causing widespread flooding, landslides, and significant loss of life. As communities work to recover, this national observance reflects the country’s shared grief and support for affected families. NONIE REYES
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 58.1980 n JAPAN 0.3824 n UK 75.5119 n HK 7.4834 n CHINA 8.1624 n SINGAPORE 43.9064 n AUSTRALIA 38.4689 n EU 63.3311 n KOREA 0.0422 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.4967 Source: BSP (November 4, 2024)