ADB: High-emissions scenario to cut PHL GDP
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HE Philippine economy stands to lose as much as 18.1 percent of its GDP by 2070 under a “high-emissions scenario” that could worsen the impact of climate change in the country, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB). In the release of its inaugural report on climate change, the AsiaPacific Climate Report, ADB said a high-emissions scenario could also see GDP losses of 3.7 percent of GDP in 2030 and 8.8 percent by 2050. The Philippines will experience the greatest impact of climate change in terms of sea level rise which could cost anywhere
from $1.4 billion to $9.7 billion in 2035; $4.8 billion to $41.2 billion in 2050; and $29 billion to $158.3 billion in 2070. “The dominant—about half— of losses come from sea level rise,” ADB Economic Research and Development Impact Senior Economist David Raitzer said in a virtual briefing on Thursday. “And then a larger share than at the regional average would come from natural resource-based sectors. So agriculture, fisheries, forestry, and these sources. So it differs a little bit from the overall regional picture,” he added. Data obtained from ADB showed
that the increase in sea level could affect around 462,000 to 1.97 million Filipinos in 2035; 736,1000 to 3.86 million Filipinos in 2050; and 1.53 million to 6.83 million Filipinos in 2070. This could also lead to additional flood damage under a high-end emissions climate scenario of $600 million to $2.1 billion for industrial losses in 2035; $1.2 billion to $5 billion in 2050; and $2.8 billion to $15.3 billion in 2070. In terms of commercial losses, the ADB estimated that the flood damage could be around $1 billion to $3.7 billion in 2035; $2.2 billion to $8.9 billion in 2050; and $4.9
billion to $26.9 billion in 2070. Flooding under a high-end emissions scenario could see an addition of 1.02 million to 2.77 million Filipinos affected by flooding in 2035; 1.04 million to 3.39 million in 2050; and 1.15 million to 4.76 million in 2070. “These processes that drive loss are not all linear with respect to time. Some of them are increasing over time, like sea level rise. And that means that the future economy is extremely vulnerable. Our vulnerabilities just keep rising over time,” Raitzer said. See “ADB,” A2
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Friday, November 1, 2024 Vol. 20 No. 23
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AT 2-2.8% ON FOOD PRICES By Cai U. Ordinario
PHL COULD BE 28TH LARGEST ECONOMY IN 5 YRS–EXPERT
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ORE expensive food items may have increased inflation in October compared to September, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). In its Month Ahead inf lation forecast, BSP said October inflation may have averaged 2 to 2.8 percent. In September 2024, inflation averaged 1.9 percent, the lowest in four years or since the 1.6 percent posted in May 2020. It may be noted that the BSP's forecast for October inflation is the same range it initially estimated for the September inflation (See: https:// businessmirror.com.ph/2024/10/02/20-2-8-september-inflation-seen-on-cheaper-food-oil/). “Higher prices of food commodities such as vegetables, fruits,] and fish as well as the increase in prices of domestic petroleum products and the peso depreciation are the primary sources of upward price pressures for the month,” BSP said. Nonetheless, BSP said lower prices of rice and meat along with reduced electricity rates are expected to cushion the impact on inflation by higher prices of select food items. “Going forward, the Monetary Board will continue to take a measured approach in ensuring price stability conducive to balanced and sustainable growth of the economy and employment,” BSP said. Meanwhile, Bank of the Philippine Islands Senior Vice President and Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri Jr. shared the BSP outlook but said inflation may average around 2.5 percent year-on-year or 0.4 percent month-on-month. Neri said the September inflation print may have been the lowest in four year due to base effects, which are already fading and may do little to slow inflation in October. This, combined with the unfavorable weather conditions in October, could see an increase in the prices of some food items, especially vegetables and fruits, he added. See “BSP,” A2
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HE Philippines could become the world 's 28th largest economy in five years, its growth driven by recent reforms and its demographic dividends, according to an economist from HSBC. In an economic brief, HSBC Asean economist Aris Dacanay said greater liberalization as well as fiscal and institutional reforms have made the economy stable and “set for takeoff.” Dacanay said based on the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, the Philippine economy could grow from being the 33rd largest in the world. “ T his represents many opportunities for investors to take part in this growth story, with the economy one of the least leveraged in Asean,” Dacanay said. “This may be the case again in the next five years, with the Philippines recording the highest FDI approvals in its history. So fasten your seatbelts and get ready for takeoff,” he added. Dacanay said the Philippines has also seen lower unemployment levels thanks to greater digitalization and the increase in the participation of women in the labor force. The improvement in the labor market is expected to continue
leading to the share of the working age population to peak in 2035. This, Dacanay said, will also lead to an average increase in incremental saving in the economy of an average of around $17.7 billion annually. “The Philippines has performed over and above the demographic benefits it enjoys. Employment is currently above what the demographic trend would suggest, with job creation concentrated in digitalisation and the participation of women. A more digital and inclusive economy has paved the way for better growth in the archipelago,” Dacanay said. He noted that the countr y found its niche in exporting 'lightasset' services thanks to greater digitalization which has made services even more tradeable across countries. Despite concerns surrounding artificial intelligence, the export of business and computer services has increased 20 percent since the Covid-19 pandemic. Efforts to continue to grow this export may be replicated from India which now have similar demographics and skills in terms of delivering digital services. These, he said, are crucial in building the country’s resilience. Cai U. Ordinario
UNDERWATER UNDAS In a somber scene as All Saints’ Day approaches, the Holy Spirit Memorial Park in Masantol, Pampanga, stands partially submerged after heavy rains brought by Tropical Storm Kristine left tombs and pathways waterlogged. Flooding in this low-lying area has become a familiar challenge for families who traditionally visit graves to honor their loved ones. For decades, locals have contended with Pampanga’s flood-prone topography, which, coupled with seasonal storms, often transforms cemeteries into waterlogged sites. This year, floodwaters have risen higher than usual, intensifying difficulties for families who will wade through the water to observe “Undas,” the Filipino tradition of honoring the departed. The Philippines, an archipelago in the typhoon belt, routinely experiences such conditions during monsoon season, yet the enduring dedication to remembrance during All Saints’ Day remains steadfast. AP/Aaron Favila
PESO exchange rates n US 58.2540 n japan 0.3800 n UK 75.5321 n HK 7.4955 n CHINA 8.1875 n singapore 44.0784 n australia 38.2845 n EU 63.2580 n KOREA 0.0423 n SAUDI arabia 15.5112 Source: BSP (October 31, 2024)