INTRODUCTION
At any given moment, there is no shortage of commentary about the housing market. Monthly data releases, attention grabbing headlines, and short term swings can easily create the impression that the market is either on the verge of a major shift or stuck in perpetual uncertainty. While these snapshots can be useful, they often miss the broader forces that shape real estate decisions over time. Real estate is rarely driven by a single factor. Instead, it reflects the intersection of affordability, economic confidence and stability, and financial or political uncertainty with a fundamental need for housing. By looking at how these elements interact, rather than isolating one metric, we can better understand why the market has behaved the way it has and what signals are worth paying attention to as conditions continue to evolve.
UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTATIONS
Current uncertainty remains elevated and continues to center on a number of issues. On a macro level, tariffs, trade policy, immigration and global conflict have been cited in consumer sentiment surveys. In addition, personal financial pressures that have been noted over the past year included persistently high prices, interest rates, taxes, and insurance. However, as inflation expectations have eased and optimism around interest rates has begun to stabilize following the Fed’s third rate cut late in 2025, consumers are seeing things more optimistically looking forward. There is no doubt that broader stock market gains of 15-20% helped buoy the luxury real estate market, but for the average household, views of current financial conditions have weakened. This is a bit of a paradox however, while on average consumers are admittedly feeling some pain, expectations for future financial health have improved and have been steadily on the rise since the lows of April 2025 (height of tariff fear). See Chart 1. This highlights the gap between present strain and longer term hope. Taken together, this points to a consumer base that remains uncertain, but not paralyzed, and increasingly focused on navigating the environment ahead rather than waiting for clarity to arrive.
AFFORDABILITY
Affordability has been at the center of the housing conversation for several years, but the nature of that conversation has changed. Often affordability has been viewed primarily through the lens of home prices. However, the rising interest rate environment from 2022 to early 2025, served to escalate the affordability issues. The third primary piece to the matrix is wages and how that relates to inflation. As we have discussed in prior editions of this
report, there were periods where inflation was drastically outpacing wage growth. Throughout the country, borrowers were spending a larger than recommended portion of their income on housing and this has created great strain on the average borrower. However, with mortgage rates dropping by approximately 1% from the start of 2025 and 2% since the highs from late 2023, this is finally giving borrowers some relief. See Chart 2.
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Also, with wage growth now outpacing inflation by about .9%, this puts buyers in a better financial position on a monthly basis. In fact, in 3 of the last 4 years, with home prices flat to slightly higher, wage growth has outpaced home price growth as well, and experts are calling for this to continue into 2026. See Chart 3. One important thing to note is that affordability constraints or improvements do not automatically translate into falling or rising prices. Instead, they often show up as changes in the number of transactions, length of time on market, number of new listings coming to market, etc. Affordability is one piece amongst many that plays into the balance between supply and demand, and any imbalance is usually what leads to price movement.
INVENTORY, SALES ACTIVITY, AND MARKET BALANCE
Inventory levels have risen from historic lows, but they have done so in a gradual and moderated way. We are still seeing the seasonal cycles that one would expect, with more listings coming to the market in spring and fewer options at the end of the year. In the Spring of 2025 we matched the inventory that we had grown accustomed to in the years leading up to the pandemic. See Chart 4. Also, visible in this chart is that the drop-off of inventory at the end of 2025 was steeper than normally happens in any given year. In fact, there were more expired, canceled and withdrawn listings at the end of 2025 than there have been in over 10 years. See Chart 5. What this tells us is that in 2025, sellers stepped back into the market, possibly hoping for elevated prices. Unwilling to lower prices or make the adjustments to their marketing or presentation to get their home sold, sellers instead opted to remove the home from the market. Often, this can lead to buyers thinking sellers are unreasonable across the
board. However, the reality is that a home often means something deeper to an owner. Without a compelling reason to relocate, many homeowners find it more practical to stay put rather than sell below their target price and incur the costs of moving. Since most sellers are also prospective buyers, staying put is often the best move if the financial math of a transition doesn’t add up. What does all this mean for prices? Well, as we mentioned in a previous section, when you have buyers wanting/needing to move, and you have the number of available homes remaining relatively stable, you get a market that moves more horizontally than vertically. See Chart 6. Prices tend to drop when inventory grows to excessive levels and isn’t met with demand, or increase when buyer demand exceeds seller inventory. However, neither of these scenarios are occurring. What we have here feels like a fairly balanced market with buyers and sellers meeting in a general price range which has been established over the course of a number of years. Until one side of the supply/demand equation takes hold, we would expect to continue to see this pattern.
FINAL THOUGHTS
While data provides essential context, it is only part of the decision-making process. Every move is driven by personal circumstances, whether that is a new job, a growing family, a desire to simplify, or a change in lifestyle priorities. Our role is to help interpret what the data means in light of those individual goals. We believe that informed decisions come from understanding both the numbers and the human factors behind them. If this report helps clarify the current landscape and supports thoughtful conversations about what comes next, then it has served its purpose. We would welcome the opportunity to discuss how these broader trends intersect with your specific plans and help you move forward with clarity and confidence.
THE DIFFERENCE IS EXCELLENCE
The Ladd Group is intentionally built to deliver exceptional results through a seamless, well-orchestrated experience. With in-house experts across marketing, videography, transaction management, operations, and sales, every detail is handled with precision, so your goals are achieved with confidence.
OUR WHY
To help smart people meet their personal and financial goals through strategic real estate investments.
OUR PROCESS
To streamline home buying and selling by supporting clients at every stage with a dedicated team of experts.
OUR RESULTS
A proven history of selling homes faster and for more money, and guiding buyers through successful purchases.
167 UNITS CLOSED IN 2025
638,404 VIDEO VIEWS IN 2025
4.36M PEOPLE REACHED IN 2025
$1,226,046 AVERAGE LIST PRICE
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REFERENCES:
https://usafacts.org/answers/are-wages-keeping-up-with-inflation/country/united-states/ https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US https://laddgrouprealestate.com/state-of-the-market
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Cascade Hasson Sotheby’s Team in Oregon & SW Washington. # 1
Team in sales above one million dollars. #
Central Oregon Team in total MLS sales volume for the 8th year running. #
In a balanced market, buyers win not by moving faster, but by moving smarter. With competition more selective and days on market stretching, leverage now lives in how you structure an offer, not just what you offer. The strongest buyers use time, terms, and information to their advantage, securing better economics, reducing risk, and avoiding the implicit over payments that happen when decisions are rushed or emotionally driven.
KEY TIPS:
• Acquire insights first: video walkthroughs, neighborhood data, insurance estimates, and broker communication should guide your short list before you ever step inside.
• Don’t confuse time on market with vulnerability: many homes are quietly being watched; once one buyer moves, others often follow, triggering sudden competition.
• Lead with strong terms: clean timelines, proof of funds or pre-approval, limited repair scopes, or offering a brief seller occupancy after closing, can all increase acceptance odds without inflating price.
• Focus on your net: seller-paid credits, rate buy downs, and closing cost contributions can benefit your bottom line as much as price. These can also be emotionally easier for sellers to accept, especially for a beloved primary home.
CONTRACT INSIDER: The 2026 OREF Sales Agreement now separates due diligence from the traditional inspection contingency, allowing buyers to assess zoning, rental use, insurance considerations, development impacts, and neighborhood factors without tying those decisions to physical condition. With this structure, buyers can reduce risk without losing momentum.
Sellers today win by treating their home sale like a launch, not a listing. With buyers more selective and digital saturation at an all-time high, properties no longer sell simply because they’re available; they sell because they are positioned with precision. The strongest sellers engineer momentum early, shape perception, and protect value by controlling the narrative, rather than waiting for the market to decide for them.
KEY TIPS:
• Video is required: Buyers shop online first; your job is to stop the scroll before you can earn the showing. Compelling video is no longer a luxury! As well, video “hooks” must grab attention in the first seconds.
• Track what predicts offers: impressions, clicks, showing feedback, and second visits are your strongest leading indicators.
• Anchor demand with in-person traffic: broker tours, private previews, and well-promoted open houses convert attention into urgency. As well, sometimes no traffic is a telltale sign.
• Don’t give up, reposition: The National Association of Realtors found that the most successful sellers meet regularly with their broker to interpret feedback, recalibrate, and strategize next moves. Seller patience is good, decision paralysis is not.
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CONTRACT INSIDER: The 2026 OREF Sales Agreement now establishes a standalone appraisal contingency with its own defined timeline. Previously embedded within the financing contingency with no specific deadline, the appraisal is now defaulted to 20 business days from mutual acceptance unless otherwise written. For sellers, this makes appraisal timing a negotiable term, not a hidden variable—creating an opportunity to tighten timelines, reduce uncertainty, and better manage risk when evaluating offers.
PRICE IS ONLY ONE LAYER
Bend, Oregon 97702
Stormy Clark did a stellar job representing us in the sale of our home. Her knowledge of the business and the local market is unparalleled. She gave us solid, data-driven guidance, she truly listened to our needs and came up with creative solutions, and she and her team were always responsive. She brought us the results we desired and was a pleasure to work with in the process. We would absolutely choose to work with Stormy again! - Beth
Erik Chapin worked hard for us through a challenging property search for a 1031 exchange. If you need an agent who will be on your side, Erik is your guy. - Robert Enos
We so appreciate the efforts of Bryan Hilts through our Bend property search which took several years. Bryan was so patient with us. Finally finding what we believed to be a very good match, we enjoyed working with Bryan and Mandy Gitzner, who covered for him while he was gone.
- Myra Bailey
Bryan Hilts and his colleagues have been extraordinarily helpful with the sale of my home in Tripleknot. Their presentation on the Website with remarkable photos and a very personal video, were undoubtedly part of the sale of my home in just three days after listing this officially. Also their assistance with the aftercare of my home was professional and personal. I would highly recommend the services of Bryan and the other colleagues at the Ladd Group. - Hans van den Houten
Mandy was absolutely fantastic. Everything was completed in a timely manner and her advice/guidance was invaluable. Couldn’t be happier with the new home she helped us secure. - Ryan Lurtsema
Steve and his team of professionals were instrumental in selling our home quickly and for a great price. This is our second time working with Steve. Both transactions went smoothly. Highly recommend them if you’re buying or selling in Central Oregon. - Ron Summers
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Our closest friends highly recommended Erin from the Ladd Group and we want to pass on that same recommendation to anyone buying or selling property in the area. Erin went above and beyond to help us sell our house and buy another in a short period of time. . .We felt confident that she knew what she was doing because she has a lot of experience. Thank you for making the process of moving a positive one. We love our new home!
- Jennifer Fetrow
