Executive Summary: Fourth Quarter North Carolina Economic Forecast | Dec. 11, 2024

NORTH CAROLINA ECONOMIC FORECAST LED BY BELK COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ECONOMIST PROVIDES EXPERT ANALYSIS OF ECONOMY 2024 will mark the fourth year of economic growth in North Carolina since the COVID-19 pandemic recession of 2020, even as Hurricane Helene’s destruction in the western part of the state dampened the state’s overall economy in the year’s fourth quarter. In addition, U.S. Federal Reserve policy is uncertain going forward. After two reductions in the federal funds rate in the fall, the FED is now wavering on rate policy. This uncertainty will likely have only a small impact on 2024 but could have a significant impact in early 2025, depending on future FED policy. Additionally, it remains to be seen what impact the new federal administration will have on the economy. The North Carolina Economic Forecast projects real GDP in 2025 to increase by 2.3 percent over 2024, representing the fifth full year of growth since COVID-19. All 15 of the state’s economic sectors are expected to show output increases during the coming year, and 13 of the state’s 14 nonagricultural sectors are expected to see job growth.