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VOL. 13,
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UCLA forecast: Despite sub-standard economic growth, US dodging recession By City News Service
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espite economic growth that is expected to continue trending lower than it did during the second half of last year, the nation appears to have dodged the possibility of a recession in 2024, and growth rates are expected to rebound heading into 2025, according to a UCLA forecast released Thursday. “The oft-predicted but never seen `recession next quarter’ has now faded in the face of expansionary fiscal policy, a new national industrial policy and a consumer who is happy to continue spending,” UCLA Anderson Forecast Director Jerry Nickelsburg wrote in his national economic outlook. “As inflation slowly works its way back to the neighborhood of 2.2% to 2.7% per annum and is being kept high due primarily to
residential rents, automobile repair and new health insurance premia, we expect Fed policy to take a neutral stance and economic growth to rebound to trend rates.” But Nickelsburg warned of continuing uncertainties -- including the November presidential election that could potentially mark a shift in economic policies, and the lingering possibility of a government shutdown. “These risks are substantial and bear watching as they could well drive the economy off of the current growth path that is predicted to return the U.S. economy to trend 2.5% growth,” he wrote. “Due to those uncertainties, the forecast contains weaker business investment in the third and fourth quarters of this year corresponding to a wait-and-see approach by
some firms until after the November election.” Nickelsburg noted that the last half of 2023 saw the U.S. economy grow much faster than the 2.5% average growth rate seen in recent years. The first quarter of 2024, however, saw growth beneath that trend, and that slowdown is anticipated to continue “for a few more quarters.” But Nickelsburg noted that the slowdown is not necessarily portending a recession, since the economic pace is not due to a contraction in demand leading to a sharp slowdown in GDP growth and loose labor markets. “This sounds as if the economy is on the verge of a recession, but there is a second way in which growth can slow,” he wrote. “That occurs when demand is sufficiently strong for more
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rapid growth, but supply constraints are holding it back. These can take the form of tight labor markets or a lack of physical productive capacity and that is where we find the U.S. economy as we move into the summer of 2024. It also is consistent with persistently high inflation rates.”
Nickelsburg said labor market constraints are expected to east through 2025 and 2026, thanks in part to higher wages encouraging more people to join the work force. “The construction of new factories and current industrial policy should also ease production constraints
in 2025 and 2026 and will contribute to the slightly above-trend growth in our forecast. An important risk of the forecast, of course, would be a radically different economic policy after the November elections. We are assuming that regardless of the election outcome, this is not the case.”
LA County board agrees to explore reparations efforts
West Covina council seeks public input on spending CDBG funds
By Anusha Shankar, City News Service
By Staff
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he Board of Supervisors voted Tuesday to explore additional efforts for making reparations to “historically disenfranchised” Black residents, including an offer of free admission for a day this month to attractions such as the Natural History Museum and county Museum of Art. The board approved a motion introduced by Supervisor Holly J. Mitchell directing the county CEO and the director of Racial Equity for the Anti-Racism, Diversity and Inclusion
See Reparation efforts Page 28
Initiative to review a report of the California Task Force to Study and Develop Reparation Proposals for AfricanAmericans and report back to the board in 120 days with recommendations for local reparation efforts. The report is expected to include recommendations on actions county departments can take to provide reparations to eligible residents, along with proposed language for a board resolution that acknowledges and apologizes to Black residents and their descen-
dants “for the county’s role in structural racism, acts of violence and other such harms.” “With our history of legalized racism -- including but not limited to redlining, housing discrimination, workforce discrimination, and school segregation -- our current government needs to act just as resolutely to provide true reparations to historically disenfranchised Black county residents,” the motion states. The motion also calls for a separate report within 180
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est Covina City Council members have scheduled a public hearing on how they should spend federal funds for housing preservation, economic development and public services. On July 2, the council will receive public comments and discuss Community Development Block Grant funding from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The city annually receives HUD funds and is required to prepare an annual CDBG Action Plan See CDBG funds Page 28
that details how the funds will be used. For the upcoming fiscal year beginning July 1 and ending June 30, 2025, West Covina will receive nearly $808,000 from HUD, according to a city statement. The city will also add about $20,000 “in program income through home rehabilitation loan repayments” and nearly $212,000 “in unobligated grant funds from prior years are proposed” for a resource package totaling about $1.04 million. The proposed spending
plan calls for $545,000 for a housing preservation program, $200,000 for economic development, $164,500 for planning and administration and $130,171 for public services. Officials said there is a shortfall for “Public Service Activities” For PY 2024, twelve (12) public service providers submitted applications requesting a total of $295,000, as shown below. City staff estimates $130,171 in funding resources will be available. This is a breakdown of the $295,000 in