April 2025 INDUSTRY POLICY DOSSIER
Industry Report Industrial production and trade in the individual industries
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We expect industrial production in Germany to fall by 0.5 percent in 2025. This would constitute the fourth consecutive drop, following a decrease of 4.8 percent in 2024 and downward production in the two previous years.
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German industry was substantially weaker than in the EU overall. In 2024, manufacturing output was more than ten percent lower than before the outbreak of the Covid pandemic in 2019. All industries in Germany produced less in 2024 than in 2019, apart from other transport equipment and the pharmaceutical industry. Industrial production in the European Union, in contrast, expanded one percent in the same period.
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In 2025, we expect exports to drop around 0.5 percent. Based on industry association estimates, the trade in goods is set to outperform services somewhat.
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The global trade in goods will increase around three percent in 2025 (after rising 3.5 percent in 2024), according to our estimates. The trade in goods including services is forecast to follow a similar uptrend. An escalation of trade disputes could lower growth as much as one percentage point.