May 2024 INDUSTRY POLICY DOSSIER
Industry Report Industrial production and trade in the individual industries
▪
We expect industrial production in Germany to continue downward and contract another 1.5 percent in 2024 year on year, after decreasing 0.5 percent already in 2023. Demand for industrial goods has fallen tangibly and is only set to pick up in the second half of the year. If the European economy takes much longer to recover, momentum will be even lower. With its specialisation on capital goods and consumer durables, Germany’s industrial sector will only recover from the large external shocks that have affected the global economy later down the line.
▪
German industry has almost lost a decade’s worth of growth in production. In the fourth quarter 2023, manufacturing output was more than seven percent lower than before the outbreak of the Covid pandemic in late 2019. Output was also 13 percent lower than the all-time record notched up in the second quarter 2018. Until now, the electro industry, pharmaceuticals and other transport equipment are the only industries that have returned to or exceeded their pre-pandemic levels of production. At the end of 2023, the gross value added of the manufacturing sector was 3.3 percent lower than in the second quarter 2018.
▪
In 2024 overall, German goods exports (nominal) are set to increase slightly (following a drop of 1.5 percent in 2023). On account of the downtrend last year, this is likely to result in stagnation year on year.
▪
In 2024, we expect the global trade in goods to increase by around two percent (following a drop of 1.9 percent in 2023). Global trade including services should perform slightly better and rise by 2.5 percent (2023: up 1.2 percent). The goods exports of the advanced economies are set to grow much slower than those of emerging countries. Exports are taking longer to recover, with German exports, in particular, lagging behind Europe and the rest of the world.