QIII-2023 QUARTERLY REPORT GERMANY
Recovery delayed Global trade dampens prospects
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Following six months of recession over the winter, German economy currently stagnating. We expect economic output in 2023 overall to shrink by 0.4 percent.
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Growth momentum from foreign trade losing steam. Exports are set to drop 0.5 percent this year following price adjustment. Exports to both China and the United States had fallen substantially at last count. German industry is participating less in global trade than it was before Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.
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Private consumption curbing growth. Real wages have been pointing down for the last three years and are only recovering gradually. Consumers remain reticent.
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Industrial production currently still buoyed by high order backlogs for capital goods. These backlogs are slowly being worked off. Now supply bottlenecks have eased, a lack of orders has become the primary obstacle to bringing up production.