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Australasian Journal of Regional Studies, Vol. 27, No. 3, 2021
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GROWTH DYNAMICS AND MUNICIPAL POPULATION CHANGE IN AUSTRALIA, 1911-2016 George Wilkinson* The Australian Urban Design Research Centre, University of Western Australia, Perth 6009, Australia. Email: george.wilkinsoniii@research.uwa.edu.au
Fiona Haslam McKenzie Centre for Regional Development, University of Western Australia, Crawley 6009, Australia. Email: fiona.haslam-mckenzie@uwa.edu.au
Julian Bolleter The Australian Urban Design Research Centre, University of Western Australia, Perth 6009, Australia. Email: julian.bolleter@uwa.edu.au *Corresponding Author ABSTRACT: In Australia, empirical analyses of municipal populations are uncommon given its cities are usually conceived of as metropolitan areas. Widespread usage of metropolitan statistics is practical; however, municipal perspectives engage with the machinery of government and can reveal complementary insights about cities as institutions. To develop such insights, this study utilised a statistical model of Australian municipal populations to examine the drivers of growth from 1911 to 2016. Statistically significant long-term positive relationships were identified between population and location specific features such as being coastal, eastern, and near to a seaport or state parliament. The constant and strong involvement of political factors is noteworthy given they are less recognised drivers of settlement. The findings of this paper, which partly elucidate drivers of population growth in Australia, have major implications for the federal government’s plan to steer anticipated high population growth into regional centres. KEYWORDS: Local government; municipality; Australia; urban primacy.
1. INTRODUCTION What is Australia’s most populous city? Since Federation (1901), there have usually been two correct answers. At the 2016 census, Sydney Greater Capital City Statistical Area’s population measured 4.64 million, signifying Australia’s most populous city, a title Sydney has held since the