August 2025
Issue brief Winning through people: The human capital advantage in great-power competition Beth Foster and Alex Wagner To maintain military readiness, deter conflict, and preserve its technological edge, the United States must prioritize human capital by investing in resilient service members and a skilled civilian workforce.
Bottom lines up front •
The next National Defense Strategy (NDS) must prioritize human capital as one of the United States’ enduring strategic advantages, recognizing that highly capable, well-trained personnel—both military and civilian—are essential to deterring conflict and operationalizing any defense strategy. This is especially important as the pool of eligible youth is shrinking and will require intentional efforts to grow the propensity to serve.
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Continued investment in and leadership attention to ongoing resilience initiatives, expanded childcare infrastructure, and family support systems translate into enhanced capability, reduced attrition costs, and strategic advantage through a more stable, experienced force.
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The civilian workforce of the Department of Defense is essential to warfighting capability yet remains undervalued in defense strategy. Rather than pursuing workforce reductions without strategic vision, the next NDS should articulate how civilian expertise in specialized fields augments military lethality and maintains the US technological edge.
Less than a week after Thanksgiving 2023, a CV-22 Osprey helicopter on a routine training mission crashed into the ocean near the southernmost point of mainland Japan. Within hours, it became clear to rescue teams that all eight aboard had perished. The crew—four officers and four enlisted airmen, including one Chinese linguist— comprised members of two separate special operations squadrons. Their mission: to deter aggression and support Japan’s self-defense forces in the Indo-Pacific. This presence was both intentional and symbo-
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lic, reflecting the US military’s pivot from decades of conflict in the Middle East against transnational armed groups toward a rising China and a renewed era of great-power competition. The crash caused the Air Force Personnel Center’s Casualty Operations Division to enter 24/7 crisis response mode, conducting more than fifty next-of-kin notifications—many delivered in person—over the course of several weeks as the remains of the deceased airmen were recovered and