September 2025
The future of US and Japanese engagement with Central Asia Written by Kyoko Imai
Bottom lines up front •
Russia and China have historically and continue to dominate foreign engagement with Central Asia, often not in the region’s best interest.
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Washington and Tokyo should offer high-quality and sustainable alternative models for foreign economic and diplomatic engagement that highlight Central Asian autonomy and adherence to the rule of law.
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Central Asia can offer the United States and Japan access to vast reserves of critical minerals that would enable diversification of supply chains vital to national security, away from Beijing.
Situated between China and Russia, and with an abundance of vital natural resources, Central Asia is an area of strategic interest for Tokyo and Washington. Beijing and Moscow currently enjoy overwhelming political, economic, and cultural influence, which limits other countries’ ability to constructively shape the region. Some friction has emerged between the two authoritarian powers as post-Soviet dominance over Central Asia erodes and Chinese economic influence takes its place. But Moscow and Beijing have put their differences aside to present a united front against what they see as the larger threat of growing Western influence in the region.1 The aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine is a key example of the utility Central Asia offers: In the face of Western sanctions, Central Asia serves as a
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
loophole through which Russia gains access to Chinese materials to fuel its war effort.2 Russia and China will always be present in the region. But Central Asian countries recognize that economic growth will require diversified engagement, and not just with their autocratic neighbors. Tokyo and Washington would be wise not to let this opportunity slip away. They should engage on select areas of mutual benefit rather than force Central Asia to make a binary choice between autocracy or democracy. Japan should leverage its economic prowess through sustainable energy, transportation infrastructure, and human resource development such as student exchanges. The United States should wield its political might to conduct high-profile diplomatic engagements with Central Asia and draw
1.
China Power Team, “What Are the Key Strengths of the China-Russia Relationship?” China Power, Published May 5, 2022; last modified November 9, 2023, https://chinapower.csis. org/china-russia-relationship-strengths-benefit/.
2.
Maximilian Hess, “The Impact of Russia Sanctions on Central Asia,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, December 16, 2024, https://www.fpri.org/article/2024/12/the-impact-ofrussia-sanctions-on-central-asia/.
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