Russia and Iran in Syria--A Random Partnership or an Enduring Alliance?

Atlantic Council RAFIK HARIRI CENTER FOR THE MIDDLE EAST

ISSUE BRIEF

Russia and Iran in Syria— a Random Partnership or an Enduring Alliance? An interim report

JUNE 2019

AMBASSADOR MICHEL DUCLOS

Russia and Iran are allies in Syria not out of mutual sympathy, but for pragmatic reasons. According to many reports, Iranian leaders—notably including Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Al-Quds force of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC)—were instrumental in convincing Vladimir Putin to send his air force to Syria and save Bashar al-Assad’s skin in September 2015.1 However, various episodes highlight the limits of what looks like a circumstantial alliance. On February 26, 2019, Assad was received in Tehran by Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Revolution, in a setting evidently designed to showcase the Syrian dictator’s personal allegiance to the supreme leader and his debt of gratitude to the IRGC. 2 On the very same day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was once again in Moscow, where he met with President Putin. 3 The asymmetric priorities in Tehran and Moscow could not seem clearer. A few months earlier, on May 9, 2018, Netanyahu attended the parade on Red Square, alongside Putin, on the anniversary of the end of World War Two ( the “Great Patriotic War” in Russian parlance).4 The follow-

The Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East studies political and economic dynamics in the Middle East and recommends US, European, and regional policies to encourage effective governance, political legitimacy, and stability.

1

Laila Bassam and Tom Perry, “‘Send Qassem Soleimani’: Here’s how Putin and Iran Plotted Out Their New Assault in Syria,” Reuters, October 6, 2015, https:// www.businessinsider.fr/us/r-how-iranian-general-plotted-out-syrian-assault-inmoscow-2015-10.

2

“Bashar Al Assad Visits Iran to Thank Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,” National, February 25, 2019, https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/bashar-al-assad-visits-iran-to-thankayatollah-ali-khamenei-1.830333; Michel Duclos, “Letter from Tehran—Tense Climate in Iran,” Institut Montaigne, March 14, 2019, https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/ letter-tehran-tense-climate-iran.

3

“Meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” President of Russia, April 4, 2019, http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60221.

4

Marc Bennetts, “Putin and Netanyahu Hold Talks as Tensions Flare over Syria Strikes,” Guardian, May 9, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/09/russiashows-off-new-missiles-and-jets-in-victory-day-parade-red-square.

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Russia and Iran in Syria--A Random Partnership or an Enduring Alliance?

Published on Jun 17, 2019

Atlantic Council

Russia and Iran are allies in Syria not out of mutual sympathy, but for pragmatic reasons. Iranian leaders were instrumental in convincing Vladimir Putin to send his air force to Syria to support Bashar al-Assad in September 2015, and the two countries cooperate within Syria to this day. However, their various differences highlight the limits of what looks like an alliance of convenience. A new report by Atlantic Council Nonresident Senior Fellow, Ambassador Michel Duclos, "Russia and Iran in Syria—a Random Partnership or an Enduring Alliance?," analyzes these points of contention and the potential for Western diplomacy with Russia to deter Iran and bring about a negotiated settlement to the conflict.