ISSUE BRIEF
Present without impact?
How the Middle East perceives China’s diplomatic engagement MARCH 2025 JONATHAN FULTON
Abstract
The Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative (SMESI) pays tribute to Brent Scowcroft’s efforts to ensure a cohesive and robust relationship between the US and the region. Those associated with the Initiative engage on a myriad of critical, panregional topics, to include: China, Russia, and great power competition in the Middle East; the future of Iran; impending regional security challenges; the politics of Middle East states and decision-making of its leaders; intraregional tensions and conflict; climate and human security challenges; interstate warfare; emerging technologies and their impact on strategic relationships; and the underlying threats facing regional states. SMESI provides policymakers fresh insights into core US national security interests by leveraging its expertise, networks, and on-theground programs to develop unique and holistic assessments on the future of the most pressing strategic, political, and security challenges and opportunities in the Middle East.
Since becoming a net energy importer in 1993, China has steadily expanded its presence in the Middle East, deepening ties through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and partnerships with regional countries and organizations. Despite economic advancements and high-profile diplomatic engagements, China’s influence remains largely economic rather than political. Middle Eastern perceptions of China vary; it is seen as a cautious, transactional actor with limited capacity for addressing key regional conflicts and security concerns. While Iran views China as a crucial partner, Gulf states leverage their ties with Beijing to maintain strategic flexibility. Interviews with regional experts highlight skepticism regarding China’s willingness and ability to assume a more influential political role. Economic pragmatism drives ongoing partnerships, but China is not yet considered a key political or security player in the region. The study concludes that China’s regional role will likely remain focused on economic interests in the near term.
Introduction
Since becoming a net energy importer for the first time in 1993, China has steadily come to see the Middle East as a more consequential region, with its presence there expanding rapidly in the period since the BRI was announced in 2013. Over the past decade, China has made significant diplomatic inroads into the region. It released its first Arab Policy Paper in 2016, articulating its ambitions for deeper engagement with the Arab world. It has developed strategic partnership agreements with nearly every country in the Middle East and North Africa; Lebanon, Sudan, and Yemen are the only exceptions. It has formalized cooperation with region-specific multilateral structures—such as the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum and the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation—and invited regional countries to join international organizations in which China plays a leadership role, including BRICS+ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Once perceived as a distant region of marginal importance, the Middle East has come to play a significant role in China’s foreign policy. Less clear is how actors in the Middle East perceive China’s engagement. While everyone in the region acknowledges China’s importance as a trading superpower, this has not resulted in diplomatic or political influence. Despite high-profile engagement like President Xi Jinping’s visit to Riyadh