A NATO Strategy for Security in the Black Sea Region

Atlantic Council BRENT SCOWCROFT CENTER ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

ISSUE BRIEF

A NATO Strategy for Security in the Black Sea Region OCTOBER 2016

STEVEN HORRELL

T

he Black Sea region is a crossroads, an intersection between Europe and the Middle East, from the eastern Balkans to the South Caucasus. Like many such points of intersection, it is often a friction point. This is very much the case in the current geopolitical environment of growing confrontation between Russia and the West. Any friction there will almost certainly involve NATO nations and the Alliance’s interests, with three NATO states on the Black Sea and several NATO partners on the Black Sea and throughout the region. Maintaining a dominant role in the Black Sea region forms an important element of Russian strategy; however, Western policymakers have been deficient in giving strategic attention to the Black Sea region in recent years. That may be changing. In addition to emphasizing collective defense and deterrence, the final communiqué of the NATO Warsaw Summit highlighted the importance of the Black Sea region: “We face evolving challenges in the Baltic and Black Sea regions, the North Atlantic, as well in the Mediterranean, which are of strategic importance to the Alliance and to our partners. Russia continues to strengthen its military posture, increase its military activities, deploy new high-end capabilities, and challenge regional security. These developments have resulted in increased unpredictability that could be mitigated through reciprocal transparency and risk reduction measures.” 1

The Brent Scowcroft Center’s Transatlantic Security Initiative brings together top policymakers, government and military officials, business leaders, and experts from Europe and North America to share insights, strengthen cooperation, and develop common approaches to key transatlantic security challenges. This issue brief is part of the Transatlantic Security Initiative’s focus on NATO’s friction zones and what steps the Alliance must take to ensure defense and deterrence in a turbulent twenty-first century.

NATO has the opportunity and responsibility to move forward from the statements of the Warsaw Summit. The Black Sea region needs NATO as a steadying influence, and NATO needs to address the Alliance’s interests in the region. This issue brief offers the framework of a NATO strategy to ensure stability in this critical area; it expands on the communiqué’s objectives for security in that region, posits an approach, and recommends actions to improve stability and security in the Black Sea region.

The Geopolitical Environment The strategic environment has transformed globally in recent years— the challenges to policymakers are as complex and dangerous as at 1

NATO, “Warsaw Summit Communiqué,” July 9, 2016, article 17, http://www.nato.int/ cps/en/natohq/official_texts_133169.htm.