ISSUE BRIEF
SPACE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT: TIME FOR ACTION
ISSUE BRIEF
Space Traffic Management: Time for Action AUGUST 2022
The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world. The Center honors General Brent Scowcroft’s legacy of service and embodies his ethos of nonpartisan commitment to the cause of security, support for US leadership in cooperation with allies and partners, and dedication to the mentorship of the next generation of leaders. The Atlantic Council’s Forward Defense (FD) practice shapes the debate around the greatest defense challenges facing the United States and its allies, and creates forward-looking assessments of the trends, technologies, and concepts that will define the future of warfare. Through the futures we forecast, the scenarios we wargame, and the analyses we produce, FD develops actionable strategies to help the United States navigate major power conflict and defend forward, alongside allies and partners. As the character of war rapidly changes, FD assesses the operational concepts and defense industrial tools necessary to effectively deter and defend against emerging military challenges.
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MIR SADAT AND JULIA SIEGEL
with guidance from an advisory panel comprised of Amb. Barbara M. Barrett, Gen Kevin P. Chilton, USAF (ret.), and Kevin O’Connell
INTRODUCTION Outer space has long been characterized as “contested, congested, and competitive.”1 More than four thousand eight hundred active satellites currently orbit Earth, representing over forty nations,2 and nearly twenty-five thousand satellites are projected to join by 2030.3 Moreover, spacefaring entities are testing the limits of space exploration: Visionary space companies are aiming to launch space tourism programs and send humans to space within the decade, and governments and militaries are increasing activity in cislunar space—the sphere formed by the EarthMoon radius—to leverage advantageous orbital regions. As humanity expands its frontiers deeper into the galaxy, the threats to US and allied space capabilities will continue to increase.4 Yet, despite the proliferation of space activity, the ability of international and national bodies to track and regulate space objects—often referred to as space traffic management (STM)—reflects a past era wherein few actors conducted limited operations in space. 1
Office of the Director of National Intelligence, National Security Space Strategy: Unclassified Summary, January 2011, 1, https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%20Pubs/2011_ nationalsecurityspacestrategy.pdf.
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Anna Wainscott-Sargent, “Peeling Back the Onion of Space Crowding: Myths vs. Reality,” Via Satellite, June 27, 2022, https://interactive.satellitetoday.com/via/july-2022/peeling-back-the-onion-on-spacecrowding-myths-vs-reality/.
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“UCS Satellite Database,” Union of Concerned Scientists, updated January 1, 2022, https://www.ucsusa. org/resources/satellite-database; and “NSR Report: 24,700 Satellites to Be Ordered and Launched by 2030,” Northern Sky Research, June 30, 2021, https://www.nsr.com/nsr-report-24700-satellites-to-beordered-and-launched-by-2030/.
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2022 Challenges to Security in Space: Space Reliance in an Era of Competition and Expansion, Defense Intelligence Agency, March 2022, 36, https://www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Documents/News/ Military_Power_Publications/Challenges_Security_Space_2022.pdf.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL