August 2025
A vision for US hypersonic weapons
Hypersonic weapons— especially if they achieve precision accuracy—may trigger shock waves in the strategic balance. —Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr., The Origins of Victory
Any future large-scale conflict in the Pacific will be in a highly contested environment where US capability will be aggressively challenged in the air, on land, at sea, and in space. The US military must have the ability to rapidly deliver lethal effects at range in a timescale of relevance. On their own, traditional strike weapons do not have sufficient speed or range to enable effective operation on what will be the highly contested battlefield of the future. Hypersonic weapons, if fielded in sufficient numbers to defeat critical targets necessary to degrade adversary capabilities, will enable effective use of traditional weapon systems and allow for future battlefield dominance. A layered defeat construct must be deployed to defend against ballistic and hypersonic missiles targeting US assets.
Bottom lines up front y Near term: Hypersonics are vital to “kick down the door” of enemy anti-access/area denial systems to enable less-exquisite forces to attack in mass. y Long term: A high-low mix of hypersonic and traditional weapons will be key to asserting military advantage. y What’s at stake: Delaying the fielding of hypersonic weapons would increase strategic risk; expediting the fielding of hypersonic strike weapons would improve lethality and deterrence and reduce strategic risk. How do hypersonic weapons fit into weapons evolution? For centuries, weapons have trended toward increasing speed, range, and accuracy. Hypersonic weapons build on these trends. Advanced engine technology and improved materials enable missiles to travel at hypersonic speeds (above Mach 5) while maintaining meaningful maneuverability. Because of their speed, hypersonic weapons, especially hypersonic
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
1
cruise missiles, tend to have greater ranges than similarly sized weapons. Faster weapons with longer ranges are more lethal than slower, shorter-range weapons. The faster speeds mean that targets have less time to evade or defend themselves. Hypersonic weapons are more likely to penetrate enemy defenses optimized for slower munitions, meaning missile salvos can comprise fewer missiles. Longer ranges mean that shooters can engage from farther away, potentially outside detection or engagement range of enemy defenses, depending on launch platform capabilities. In the next decade, exquisite hypersonic weapons will be keys to “open the door” for forces equipped with more traditional weapons. This paradigm is like the United States’ 1991 employment of the new F-117 stealth fighters equipped with precision bombs to dramatically degrade Iraqi air defense command and control. This innovation made it possible for traditional airpower to attack other targets. In a similar vein, highly capable platforms like the B-21 stealth bombers or Virginia-class fast-attack submarines