July 2025
A US framework for assessing risk in critical mineral supply chains
About this brief Written by Reed Blakemore Director of research and programs Atlantic Council Global Energy Center Peter Engelke Senior fellow Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and Global Energy Center July 2025
The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and its allies and partners. The Atlantic Council Global Energy Center develops and promotes pragmatic and nonpartisan policy solutions designed to advance global energy security, enhance economic opportunity, and accelerate pathways to netzero emissions.
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Summary This issue brief assesses the US national and economic security risks within critical mineral supply chains by examining challenges to resilient, secure, and well-supplied supply chains. It guides US policymakers toward an effective strategy for managing geopolitical risk amid future disruptions. Critical mineral risks to US national and economic security should be evaluated on a mineral-by-mineral basis, improving the deployment of political and financial capital. When an end-to-end domestic supply of minerals cannot be achieved, strategically designed trade policies should ensure access, security, and price stability across critical mineral supply chains. Finally, overthe-horizon risks that will disrupt future supply chains, including export restrictions, conflict, logistical chokepoints, and extreme weather events should be folded into a wider critical mineral strategy.
Introduction Minerals and metals enable the modern economy. From cellular phones to solar photovoltaics, satellites to semiconductors, mineralbased components are irreplaceable pieces of nearly every modern-day technology. Critical minerals range from high-volume commodities such as nickel and copper to niche elements such as tungsten, indium, lithium, and cobalt to rare-earth elements necessary for permanent magnets and alloys. These minerals pass from mine to finished product through complex supply chains that transform extracted minerals into usable precursors (e.g., chemicals, alloys) for manufactured technologies. Numerous stakeholders, including private-sector companies and publicsector agencies, shape supply chains based on market demand, profit margins, and national security considerations. The United States needs ever-more minerals, metals, and materials. Yet its inability to supply the entirety of its
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mineral needs domestically creates vulnerabilities. Global supply chains are often controlled by unfriendly countries. China dominates, either due to the location of most midstream processing (in China), the development of upstream mining activity through Chinese investment abroad, or via the ownership of transshipment ports by Chinese firms. As the bilateral relationship between Beijing and Washington becomes more competitive, US mineral dependency has become a key source of leverage for China. The United States should carefully assess its most significant vulnerabilities. The margin of error is slim. The development of new mines, alternative midstream processing infrastructure, and component manufacturing all take significant time and investment to first establish and then de-risk the overall supply chain. Establishing secure supply chains across all critical minerals will require engagement with reliable partners abroad, within an increasingly fractured