Atlantic Council GEOECONOMICS CENTER
ISSUE BRIEF
Fragmentation and the role of the IMF
MARCH 2025 PATRICK RYAN I. Introduction
The global economy and international financial system have evolved dramatically since the founding of the Bretton Woods system in 1944. A trend toward greater trade openness defined the decades following the establishment of the system. And while the Bretton Woods arrangement of fixed exchange rates was abandoned in 1973, this new international economic order continued to facilitate global economic integration and financial liberalization. Yet the trend of ever-more globalization, which has largely defined the past fifty years, appears to have stalled. Trade openness has remained effectively flat since the global financial crisis (GFC) (figure 1), while cross-border assets have trended down or sideways since the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine (figure 2).
The GeoEconomics Center develops data-driven programs, publications, and thought leadership at the nexus of economics, finance, and foreign policy. The Center aims to bridge the divide between these oft-siloed sectors with the goal of helping shape a more resilient global economy. The Bretton Woods 2.0 Project examines the deep challenges facing the Bretton Woods Institutions and leverages data, research, and convening to propose new solutions for the future of the IMF, World Bank, and World Trade organization.
By fostering financial stability and supporting economic growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided a stable foundation which supported this trend of increased cross-border trade and investment. The IMF, through its surveillance and lending operations, was established to act as an impartial referee to ensure that member countries pursued sound economic and financial policies. It also expanded the global financial safety net (GFSN) – which acts as an insurance mechanism to provide liquidity to countries facing economic crises. The IMF, as the lender of last resort to the global economy, acted as the primary provider of crisis support up until the GFC. This postwar system, of which the IMF was a core component, supported decades of economic prosperity, broad-based increases in living standards, and a marked decline in global poverty rates. However, the global economy had no shortage of crises in the intervening years. Experiences ranging from the Latin American debt crisis to the Asian financial crisis have incrementally eroded the IMF’s credibility and led member countries to seek alternative insurance mechanisms that do not come with “strings attached” (e.g., IMF program conditionality), thereby reducing member countries’ reliance on the IMF. The onset of the GFC led countries to double down on self-insurance mechanisms. It also led to a substantial diversification of the GFSN, as bilateral swap lines