Gross Domestic Product
(source: Department of Commerce)
GDP less Trade, Inventory & Government
(source: Department of Commerce)
Consumer Sentiment
(source: University of Michigan, Survey Research Center)
Buying Conditions for Homes
(source: University of Michigan, Survey Research Center)
Good Time
Bad Time
Selling Conditions for Homes
Good Time Bad Time
Buying vs Selling Conditions for Homes
(source: University of Michigan, Survey Research Center)
Personal Savings
(source: U.S. Bureau of the Census)
Payrolls Growth
(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; 3-month & 12-month growth rate)
Recovery from Bottom
(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; through 2025)
Employment: Georgia
(source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, thru January 2026)
Employment: Atlanta
(source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, thru January 2026)
Employment: Atlanta
(source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, thru January 2026)
2.0 2.5
JOLTS: Openings/Unemployed
(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Employment Cost Index: Role of Inflation
(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Basis of Tariffs
Congress has constitutional standing.
Section 232 (1962): certain circumstances allows the president to impose tariffs based on the recommendation from the Secretary of Commerce if "an article is being imported into the United States in such quantities or under such circumstances as to threaten or impair the national security.
Section 201 & 301 (1974): designed to eliminate unfair foreign trade practices that adversely affect U.S. trade and investment in both goods and services.
International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977.
Struck down by SCOTUS On February 20, 2026
Impact of Tariffs
• ISM-PMI still contracting – lowest in 9 months in December 2025.
• Large surge (52.1) in January
• Manufacturers were slowing capital expenditures as they wait for more “clarity”
• Domestic impact is product of
– Tariff rate
– Margin compression for producer
– Change in FX
– Percentage of final good subject to tariff
– Ability of final consumer to substitute
• Level shifts versus untick in inflation.
- Lags in system
- Feedback on retaliatory tariffs
Open questions:
Will we build redundant supply chains or “reshore” What does it mean for capital flows?
Inflation: Transitory or Persistent?
(source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• CPI up 0.9% in March – following 0.3% and 0.2% in two previous months. Overall CPI up 3.3% over last 12 months.
• Core CPI up 0.2% in March. Core up 2.6% over last year.
• Energy component was up 10.9% in March. The energy component is up 12.5% over the last 12 months.
• PCE up 2.8% for 12 months ending in February, core PCE up 3.0% over the same period.
(source: U.S. Energy Information Administration)
Energy Cost: Gasoline Expectations
(source: University of Michigan, Survey of Consumers)
Producer Price Index: Construction Materials
(Change L12M, source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Federal Funds Rate
(source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
Market’s Expectation for Federal Funds Rate:
April 22, 2026
(Source: CME Group)
10-Year Treasury Bonds
(source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System)
Mortgages vs 10-Year T-Bonds
(source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System)
$9,000,000
$8,000,000
$7,000,000
$6,000,000
$5,000,000
$4,000,000
$3,000,000
$2,000,000
$1,000,000
$0
Fed: Securities Held Outright
(in millions, source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce)
Securities Held Against GDP
90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type
(source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Credit Panel/Equifax)
Charge Off Rates at Banks
(source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
Comments on Risk & Capital Markets
• Did we accurately assess the impact of rising rates (2022 to 2024) on credit risk?
• Will tighter underwriting restrict ability to refinance/refund debt markets? Credit tightening may be more about leverage more than rates.
• Will rise in private debt market continue?
• Is there risk in liquidation of assets that support credits?
Non-Residential Construction
(Source: U.S. Census Bureau)
Housing Market Index
US Housing Permits: SF and Total
(source: U.S. Census Bureau)
US Housing Permits: Multi-family
(source: U.S. Census Bureau)
ATL Housing Permits: SF
(12 month average, source: U.S. Census Bureau)
ATL Housing Permits: Multi-family
(12 month average, source: U.S. Census Bureau)
Case Shiller: National Index
(source: Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller)
Home Prices: Georgia
(Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency)
Case Shiller: Atlanta Index
(source: Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller)
Case Shiller: Atlanta Index
(source: Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller)
Housing Affordability: Rate Effect
(source: S&P Case-Shiller, Freddie Mac)
Comments on Shifting Fiscal Policy
• Extend 2017 TCJA (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act)
– Corporate Tax Rate
• Shifted to flat 21%; Global & Territorial Tax regimes
• Changes in Depreciation & Net Loss Carryback
– Individual Tax Rates (made permanent)
• Cut in marginal tax rates
• Treatment for Pass-Through Entities
• Tax on tips & overtime; SSI
• “SALT” Deduction; Estate Tax
– 2026 Federal Refunds
The Demographics: Boom & Bust
(source: U.S. Census Bureau)
Internal Migration
(source: Tax Foundation)
