SIGNIFICANT FARM LOSSES PERSIST, DESPITE FEDERAL ASSISTANCE
The USDA-Economic Research Service (ERS) December update to Commodity Costs and Returns provides a comprehensive look at per-acre production costs for the nine principal row crops: corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, rice, barley, oats, peanuts and sorghum. At a high level, ERS projects average total costs per acre to increase for every crop in 2026, underscoring the persistence of elevated production expenses across U.S. agriculture. When operating expenses and farm-wide costs like equipment, land and management are combined, costs vary widely by crop. In 2025, forecasted total per-acre costs are $1,308 for rice, $1,166 for peanuts, $943 for cotton, $890 for corn, $658 for soybeans, $498 for oats, $491 for barley, $443 for sorghum, and $396 for wheat. Looking ahead, ERS projections for 2026 suggest continued upward pressure across most cost categories, with total cost increasing anywhere from 2.2% to 3.3%. Amongst the nine principal crops, wheat ($409 per acre), sorghum ($458) and oats ($513) remain at the lower end of the production cost spectrum, while soybeans ($678) and barley ($507) fall in the mid-range in 2026. Cotton ($965), peanuts ($1,194) and rice ($1,336) remain the most expensive crops to produce on a per-acre basis.
Operating costs—expenses directly tied to producing a yearly crop, such as seed, fertilizer, chemicals, fuel and labor—substantially vary across crops. In 2025, total operating costs ranged from $155 per acre for wheat to more than $764 per acre for rice and $631 per acre for peanuts. In 2026, these costs are expected to rise, ranging from $774 per acre for rice and $160 per acre for wheat. While select inputs have moderated slightly from recent peaks, overall operating expenses remain well above pre-2021 levels. Rising costs since 2020 have been driven primarily by sharp increases in interest expenses (+71%), fertilizer (+37%), fuel and oil (+32%), labor (+47%), chemicals (+25%) and maintenance (+27%), alongside notable gains in seed (+18%) and marketing costs (+18%).
Against this backdrop of elevated costs, commodity prices have remained under pressure, limiting farmers’ ability to cover their costs through the marketplace alone. As a result, many farms are projected to experience losses for a fourth or fifth consecutive year, even after accounting for crop insurance indemnities and ad hoc assistance. Read more online.
Elementary Ag Education Pilot Program, Page 2
ArFB Young Farmers and Ranchers Conference, Page 3
ELEMENTARY AG EDUCATION PILOT PROGRAM
In fall of 2025, ArFB launched the Arkansas Elementary Agriculture Education Pilot Program. A three-component model comprised of Classroom/Laboratory Instruction, Experiential Learning and Personal and Leadership Development will afford kindergarten through 6th graders hands-on, inquiry-based learning opportunities to sow seeds for the future of agriculture.
Participation in the pilot program required attendance at a professional development workshop at the Arkansas Farm Bureau Center in Little Rock, which featured introductions to agricultural literacy and standards, plus a comprehensive look at detailed lesson plans. On January 20, 17 attendees returned for training on the second phase of curriculum that was released for 2026.
Attendees completed hands on training for next set of curriculum including building a solar fan, learning about wind power, disection and study of egg structure, extracting strawberry DNA, vermicomposting, seed houses and more. Teachers were able to take home 20 books for their classrooms and all the materials needed for lessons, including the worms for lesson on vermicomposting.
Another professional development workshop will be held in July with the next group of schools being added to the pilot program. Teachers will be able to earn their endorsement to teach elementary ag education at this event. Applications to be included in the program are now open for schools through the Arkansas Department of Education. Contact Donette Spann for more information.
ARFB YOUNG FARMERS AND RANCHERS CONFERENCE
The ArFB Young Farmers & Ranchers and Collegiate Conference will take place Feb. 13-14, at the Embassy Suites in Little Rock. Registration will start on Friday, Feb. 13, at 10:00 a.m.
Friday’s agenda includes the opening general session, workshops, Collegiate Discussion Meet preliminary rounds and dinner with keynote speaker Gatlin Didier.
Didier is a creator, entrepreneur and storyteller with deep Oklahoma roots. He’s best known for blending humor, rural life and ranch culture into viral videos that have built a loyal following of over 8 million people across social media. Through his comedy characters like Granny Bibbins, Gate Bart, and his own farm persona, Darrell Bibbins, Gatlin has not only entertained millions but also built a powerful platform to champion agriculture and the ranching lifestyle.
Beyond entertainment, Didier is the co-founder of Didier Ranch, a premium beef brand delivering ranch-raised beef directly to homes nationwide. At the heart of it all, Gatlin’s mission is simple: to celebrate his family’s ranching heritage, create opportunity in rural communities, and remind people everywhere that tradition still has a place in the modern world.
The conference will continue into Saturday morning with Collegiate Discussion Meet finals, followed by additional workshops and a closing general session. Conference registration is open now.
ARKANSAS GRASSROOTS LEADERSHIP PROGRAM
The Arkansas Grassroots Leadership program identifies and provides training and resources for potential county Farm Bureau leaders, introduces them to all aspects of the organization and connects them with current Farm Bureau leaders to ensure their success. The two-year program will offer leadership opportunities at the county, state and national level. For more details and to register, contact your county president, district director or go online.
If you are interested in learning more about Farm Bureau, benefitting from leadership development training and amplifying your voice by becoming part of the state’s largest agriculture advocacy organization, sign up for one of the seven regional meetings that will take place this spring.
2026 Regional Meetings:
MT. HOME | Feb. 11
Baxter Co. Farm Bureau
DEWITT | Feb. 23
Arkansas Co. Farm Bureau
TEXARKANA | Feb. 26
Miller Co. Farm Bureau
FAYETTEVILLE | March 12
Washington Co. Farm Bureau
EL DORADO | March 17
Union Co. Farm Bureau
CONWAY | April 1
Faulkner Co. Farm Bureau
AGRICULTURE YOUTH LEADERSHIP SUMMIT
ArFB will be hosting the Ag Youth Leadership Summit (AYLS) on May 31–June 3, 2026.
This four-day immersive experience is designed to inspire and inform future leaders by offering a comprehensive look at agricultural degrees and career pathways. Participants will tour local agricultural operations, engage with industry professionals and gain firsthand insight into the work of ArFB. The summit also explores key issues impacting agriculture and rural communities across the state, equipping attendees with the knowledge and connections to become advocates for Arkansas agriculture.
AYLS is open to high school students entering the 11th or 12th grade for the 2026–27 school year.
Application acceptance will be determined by recommendations from a county Farm Bureau executive officer. The deadline for applications is March 20. No applications will be considered after this date. Contact Donette Spann for more information.
MARKET NEWS
as of January 21, 2026
Contact
Brandy Carroll
brandy.carroll@arfb.com
Tyler Oxner tyler.oxner@arfb.com
Rice
The long-term downtrend in rice futures appears to be over for the time being, with clear chart signals that the market has found its bottom. The market is holding steady above previous resistance at $10 but has found resistance between $10.50 and $10.75. Recent USDA reports have provided somewhat bullish news for prices. The annual production report pegged harvested acres at 2.74 million, down 20,000 acres from the previous projection. That more than offset the higher yield estimate, resulting in total production of 206.7 million hundredweight. The import projection was lowered by 1 million cwt, and domestic use was increased by 5 million cwt to 171 million cwt, but that was partially offset by a 3 million cwt decrease in the export projection. The net result was a 3.6 million cwt reduction in projected ending stocks. The all-rice expected average on farm price was increased 20 cents to $11.80, while the projected long-grain price was unchanged at $10.50.
Corn
The January WASDE was a game changer for the corn market as USDA increased harvested acreage by 1.3 million acres and raised yield estimates to 186.5 bushels per acre, even as the trade had been expecting a 2-bushelper-acre decline. Following the initial selloff tied to the report, corn futures have remained under modest pressure, with market focus shifting away from fundamentals and toward geopolitical and trade-related concerns. September
2026 futures settled at their lowest close since last August at $4.31 before stabilizing just above the key technical support level at $4.30. From a technical standpoint, a decisive break below this area would likely invite additional fund selling and could open the door for a move back toward the psychologically important $4.00 level.
Soybeans
The January WASDE could best be described as “less bad” for soybeans. USDA raised U.S. ending stocks to 350 million bushels, which came in at the upper end of trade expectations. Global ending stocks were also increased to 124.41 million metric tons, compared to 123.4 million last year. Technically, soybeans reacted far less negatively than corn. Prices briefly broke trendline support and tested horizontal support in the March contract near the $10.30 to $10.40 range. Since the report, futures have struggled to push through resistance at the 20-day moving average near $10.58. Even so, March soybean futures have posted higher highs and higher lows for four consecutive sessions, and momentum indicators suggest the two-month selling wave is gradually losing steam.
Wheat
Fundamental changes in the January WASDE were not supportive for wheat, but they were also not aggressively bearish. After initially selling off in sympathy with corn, wheat prices have steadily clawed back losses. From a technical perspective, both Chicago and Kansas City futures appear to have established a bottom and are beginning to bounce with improving momentum. March Kansas City wheat recently tested resistance on a breakout attempt above the 100-day moving average near $5.26. The key support level to monitor remains near $5.18, just above last week’s lows. A break below that area would likely shift the bearish target toward the $5.10 level.
Cotton
Cotton futures are trading in a mostly sideways pattern but appear to have established a bottom near 63 cents. Recent USDA reports have been somewhat bullish for the market, and traders have grown concerned about the size of next year’s crop given current price levels and negative margins for three years running. In the January Annual Production Report, USDA lowered the 2025 crop estimate to 13.918 million bales, down 350,000 bales from the December estimate. The reduction was due to an 8% drop in average yields due to lower yields in the Delta and larger harvested acreage in the Southwest. The WASDE report was mostly unchanged otherwise, resulting in a 300,000 bale reduction in projected ending stocks and an increase of a penny in the expected on-farm average price, which is now pegged at 61 cents/lb.
Livestock and Poultry
In the January WASDE report, USDA raised their beef production on heavier dressed weights, which more than offset the reduced fed cattle slaughter at the end of 2025. The Cattle report, released January 30, will provide a better indication of the number of cattle available for placement during 2026 and producer intentions to retain heifers for breeding. Pork production estimates were increased based on data from the December Hogs and pigs report, which showed a larger-thanexpected pig crop during the last two quarters of 2025. Broiler and turkey production estimates were raised on hatchery data and recent production. Cattle prices are expected to move higher in early 2026, while hog and broiler prices are projected to hold steady.
