AMOS
AustralianMeteorological & OceanographicSociety
Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological & Oceanographic Society Vol 25, No.4, August 2012 ISSN 1035-6576
Contents Editorial ..........................................................................................................................................................................56 President’s Column ........................................................................................................................................................56 News ..............................................................................................................................................................................57 News from the Centres ..................................................................................................................................................61 Conference report ..........................................................................................................................................................62 Articles ...........................................................................................................................................................................63 J. Catto — When is it hottest in Victoria? ..............................................................................................................................63
Meet a Member .............................................................................................................................................................68 Snapshot ........................................................................................................................................................................69 Charts from the Past with Blair Trewin: 29 August 1982 ..............................................................................................70 Calendar .........................................................................................................................................................................71
ISSN 1035-6576 Cover picture: Taken looking east-north-east from a footbridge across the Yarra at South Wharf (37.8° S 144.95° E) on 1 August 2012. The lifting fog can be seen swirling over the Eureka Tower from left to right, which resembled a breaking wave. Image: Will Thurston Unless specifically stated to the contrary, views expressed in the Bulletin are the personal views of the authors, and do not represent the views of the Society or any other organisation or institution to which the author(s) may be affiliated.
Editorial
Clouds and snapshots
Clouds are one of the most important atmospheric phenomena on the planet. They are an everyday occurrence throughout much of the globe, they have a strong influence on the Earth’s radiation budget, provide a means of transporting water globally and they are an important source of literary and artistic inspiration. It is the artistic inspiration that I want to focus on as a way to encourage more members to submit photographs for the front cover of BAMOS as well as the “Snapshot” section. Clouds can depict the “mood” of the atmosphere from the benign fair-weather cumulus clouds to the threatening cumulonimbus. Similarly, clouds can indicate more subtle features such as the presence of wind shear, turbulence and gravity waves in the atmosphere (see the front cover photograph). Also, due to our capability to recognise familiar shapes in seemingly random phenomena, identifying “clouds that look like things” is a pastime that the majority of us will have enjoyed at some time. The Cloud Appreciation Society has an entire photogallery dedicated to “clouds that look like things” (http:// cloudappreciationsociety.org/cloud-tags/cloudalikes/). Examples include the Loch Ness Monster spotted in Italy, a Kangaroo in Switzerland and even the mythical Pegasus over northern Iceland. Indeed, a baby elephant has even been spotted off the coast of Western Australia (see this issue’s Snapshot, p 69) and I am sure that there are many others that our members have seen. It is this versatility in cloud images that has prompted me to encourage members to send in their favourite cloud snaps. These photographs will provide a means to mix meteorological interest with amusing images.
So, if any AMOS members (or non-members known to have images) have any snaps of interesting cloudscapes (including “clouds that look like things”) then please send them to me for inclusion in BAMOS. A description of the type of cloud in the scene and something about the meteorological conditions should also be included (as well as the location, the date and if applicable, what the cloud is supposed to look like). If you are unsure on deciphering between your cumulus and cirrus then I will be more than happy to attempt to identify the cloud and some interesting meteorological features within the photograph. You can also look at the Cloud Appreciation Society’s “find a cloud” section of the web site (http://cloudappreciationsociety.org/ find-a-cloud/) to help in identifying the type of cloud in your shot. Alternatively you can purchase a copy of The Cloudspotter’s Guide, which is an interesting and lighthearted read on all things cloud related (available through the Cloud Appreciation Society’s web site). Finally, while I have used clouds as an example to encourage more photographic submissions to BAMOS this does not mean I want to focus entirely on cloud photographs. Any photographs of interesting meteorological and oceanographic phenomena will be warmly received and published in BAMOS. I have just used clouds as an example as I am sure many members have interesting cloudscape photographs that could be dug out and sent in to BAMOS. I will look forward in particular to seeing any submissions of “clouds that look like things”.
Duncan Ackerley
President’s Column
Weather and climate extremes Extremes of weather and climate are always something to excite the interest of our community. They are the events which have the greatest impact on broader society, and the events where the role of accurate weather forecasting is most crucial to protect life and property. As with most years, 2012 is seeing its share of notable extremes, both in Australia and elsewhere—recent examples (at the time of writing) include the drought and repeated heatwaves in the United States, and heavy loss of life from flash floods in both Russia and Beijing. Extreme events touch on many parts of the AMOS community. Most obviously, they are a major part of life for operational forecasters. (We don’t currently have a large membership from operational forecasters, and fi nding ways to make AMOS more attractive to them is a priority of the Executive during this term—although, as pointed out in the recently-released review of the Bureau’s severe Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 56
weather operations, there are surprisingly few operational forecasters to begin with). Improved forecasting of extreme events is also a major driver of research, in modelling and in other areas. In recent years, numerical weather prediction models have been increasingly capable of forecasting the likely occurrence (if perhaps not the fi ner details) of extreme events several days ahead. A striking example occurred in late February this year, when the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model, over several successive runs three to six days in advance, was predicting four-day rainfalls across a wide area of southern New South Wales and northern Victoria beyond any precedent in the historic record, and that is exactly what happened. Potential changes in extreme events are also an area of great interest in the climate change fi eld, as is the
interpretation of current extremes in the context of climate change—many of us have abundant experience of being asked whether this heatwave/flood/storm was caused by climate change (or, on the other side, whether this cold spell demonstrates that climate change does not exist). Attribution of such events is a very active area of research with a number of interesting papers hitting the streets in the last few months. Public attitudes to climate change also appear to be influenced by extreme events. On the one hand, the proportion of Australians who perceive climate change as a significant problem, and who believe human activity is largely responsible for it, has fallen steadily over the last five years, and it seems more than coincidental that that is the period over which drought has declined in most major cities. (In case you were wondering, the decline started before the carbon price became a fi ercely-contested political issue). On the other hand, the proportion of Americans who believe similarly has risen sharply this year, in a year which is running so far ahead of previous records that even a normal finish to 2012 will be enough to give the continental United States its hottest year on record.
Extremes will be a major focus of the 2013 AMOS National Conference, which will be held in Melbourne from 11 to 13 February. The conference website is now open for the submission of abstracts, which are due on 21 September (check http://wired.ivvy.com/event/WXOCCX/). We are hoping that this will be a very attractive conference to those working in all of the fields covered by AMOS, but in particular those who deal with extremes, whether in research or in operations. In the longer term, something we would like to achieve is something akin to what is done at the AMS Annual Meeting, where a special session on the previous year’s high-impact weather is one of the most popular features of the conference. There are some barriers to establishing something similar in Australia, not least that often highimpact events are followed by inquiries or commissions which severely constrain the ability of those involved to speak publicly anywhere else (it is only this year, three years after the event, that we are starting to see Black Saturday papers and conference presentations in significant numbers), but it should be possible to overcome those barriers with a bit of thought.
Blair Trewin
News
Nominations are now called for the 2012 AMOS Medal and Christopher Taylor award Mark Williams
Chair, AMOS Awards Committee Address for nominations and correspondence: mmw@internode.on.net
AMOS Medal In 2000 the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) extended its professional activities to better serve its members by establishing a major new prize, the AMOS Medal. Th is medal is offered every second (even) year. The AMOS Medal recognises leadership in meteorology, oceanography, climate and related fi elds, particularly through education and the development of young scientists, and through the building of research environments in Australia. In particular, the AMOS Medal is directed to senior scientists who have made a substantial contribution over many years, advancing the science of meteorology, oceanography and climatology through leadership, mentoring and research management rather than personal research. It should be noted that these criteria are complementary to those for the Priestley Medal and Christopher Taylor Award. Any scientist may make a nomination, whether they are junior or a hold senior position in the organisation in which they work. Younger scientists in particular are encouraged to nominate their mentors for this Award. The Committee has limited ability to seek additional information to that Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 57
in the nomination papers, and therefore depends on the nomination papers to provide a full and fair account of the candidate taking particular account of the criteria for this award. The Committee’s preferred form of nomination/ application comprises: t
B TVNNBSZ PG UIF SFBTPOT GPS UIF DBOEJEBUVSF
t B MJTUJOH PG UIF NBKPS BDIJFWFNFOUT JO MFBEFSTIJQ meteorology, oceanography, climate and related fields t
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Council believes that the AMOS Awards provide an important means of recognising talent both among its members and in the fields that it represents, and it does not restrict nominations or applications to those who are already members of the Society. It is expected that Award winners will give serious consideration to joining the Society and taking an active part in its affairs. Where award winners are not already members of AMOS, Council will provide a complimentary membership for the remainder of the year of award. Since its inception awards have been made to:
2000
Ian Simmonds
The University of Melbourne
1994
Geoff Feren
Victoria Regional Office
2002
Lance Leslie
University of New South Wales
1995
Russell Stringer
Northern Territory Regional Office
2004
Matthias Tomczak
Flinders University
1996
Milton Speer
2006
Gary Meyers
University of Tasmania
New South Wales Regional Office
1997
David Thomas
University of New South Wales
Northern Territory Regional Office
1998
John Bally
Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmanian Regional Office
1999
Robert Leighton
National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre
2000
Greg Connor
Queensland Regional Office
2001
Phil Davill
South Australia Regional Office
2002
Stephen Pendlebury
Tasmanian/Antarctica
2003
Roger Deslandes
Bureau of Meteorology Training Centre
2004
Neil Adams
Tasmanian/Antartica
2005
Graeme King
Northern Territory Regional Office
2006
Peter Newham
Victorian Regional Office
2007
Grant Elliott
Western Australia Regional Office
2008
Jeff Callaghan
Queensland Regional Office
2009
Anthony Leggett
National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre
2010
Matthew Collopy
South Australian Regional Office
2011
Rabi Rivett
Western Australian Regional Office
2008 2010
Andy Pitman Neville Smith
Christopher Taylor Award Christopher Taylor was a Bureau of Meteorology analyst and forecaster from the mid-70s until his untimely death at age 35 in July 1988. He had a natural curiosity in, and an enthusiasm and energy for investigating observed weather phenomena and operational forecasting problems, which were largely carried out in his own time. The Award carries a prize of $500 very generously provided by his former wife Jacqueline Healy, and is open to professional meteorologists for contributions of all kinds to operational forecasting and supporting activities in Australia. In the spirit of Christopher Taylor’s efforts, the Awards Committee will give extra weight to nominations for operational meteorologists who have either commenced or performed a substantial part of their investigative work, or other contribution to operational forecasting, outside of normal duties. Meteorologists whose normal role is to support operations either through investigations or the development of operational tools may also be nominated, however a case should be made that the contribution has exceeded the normal expectations of a person working in that position. It should be noted that achievements of a more academic nature are recognised through other AMOS awards. There is also a perpetual plaque held for the year by the appropriate Regional or other office. Nominations may be made by AMOS members or others, especially senior staff of the Bureau of Meteorology who will be familiar with the work of their regional operational staff. Since its inception awards have been made to:
Please provide all nominations for both the AMOS Medal and the Christopher Taylor Award to Mark Williams, Chair, Awards Committee at mmw@internode.on.net by 31 August 2012.
News from IAMAS Tom Beer
Australian IAMAS representative IAMAS1 is the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences. It is one of the eight constituent associations of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)2. IUGG held its General Assembly in Melbourne in July 2011 at which IAMAS elected a new 1
www.iamas.org/
2
www.iugg.org/
Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 58
President—Athena Coustenis of France. Hans Volkert of Germany continued as the Secretary-General of IAMAS. All scientists in Australia working on meteorology or atmospheric sciences are automatically members of IAMAS, which publishes sporadic newsletters. The material, below, is summarized from the latest newsletter.
IUGG Union Commission on Climatic and Environmental Changes The IUGG Executive Committee has established a Union Commission on Climatic and Environmental Change (CCEC) in order to: t
promote the advancement of the scientific understanding of climatic and environmental change
t
boost research in reducing uncertainties in climate and environmental models
t
define criteria for collaborative trans-disciplinary research on climate and environmental change
t
fulfill the objectives of IUGG and its associations
t
provide an all-Union perspective on climatic and environmental change
t
make available the knowledge and insights developed through scientific research to the benefit of society and planet Earth, including considerations of the science of global change, related vulnerability and impacts, and potential responses.
The IUGG Executive Committee appointed 14 experts to compose the Executive Committee of CCEC: Tom Beer (Australia) as Chair of the Commission, Jianping Li (China, also ICCL Executive Secretary) as Vice Chair, Keith Alverson (USA, also former ICCL president) as Secretary-Treasurer, and 10 members of the committee representing Union Associations: Ian Allison (Australia, IACS), Michael Sideris (Canada, IAG), Tonie van Dam (Luxembourg, IAG), Eigil Friis-Christensen (Denmark, IAGA), Dan Rosbjerg (Denmark, IAHS), Makoto Taniguchi (Japan, IAHS), Michael MacCracken (USA, IAMAS past president), Guoxiong Wu (China, IAMAS immediate past president), Lawrence Mysak (Canada, IAPSO), Setsuya Nakada (Japan, IAVCEI), Stephen Self (USA/UK, IAVCEI), and a co-opted member Serhat Sensoy (WMO Commission for Climatology).
in partnership with governments, business and, more broadly, society. Future Earth will bring together natural scientists, social scientists, engineers and the humanities with funders and policy makers to align research agendas, understand and anticipate environmental change, and develop innovative solutions. According to the Belmont Forum of environmental research funding agencies, “One of the keys to the success of Future Earth will be transnational funding to support international research projects. For example, the funding agencies of the Belmont Forum have established joint calls that will bring together new international partnerships of social and natural scientists working on specific themes, such as freshwater security and coastal vulnerability”. IAMAS encourages its scientists to be actively involved in the new initiative. For more information on Future Earth, see: www.icsu.org/future-earth/
2013 Robert A. Duce Named Symposium A symposium will be held in the 2013 American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting to honour Dr. Robert A. Duce, former President of ICACGP and IAMAS. The theme for the 2013 Robert A. Duce Named Symposium is “Air-Sea Exchange: Impacts on the Atmosphere and Ocean”. It will honour his distinguished contributions in research related to chemical cycles of pollutant and natural substances in the global atmosphere. The symposium will present an integrated view of atmospheric and marine chemistry, air-sea interaction, global biogeochemical cycles, and climate change. Papers are solicited on all aspects of air-sea exchange. Graduate and undergraduate students are strongly encouraged to submit an abstract describing their research in this area. Best student oral presentations and poster papers will be selected at the meeting and recognised by the Atmospheric Chemistry Committee soon after the meeting. More details on this symposium can be found at:
IAMAS has proposed the new commission, has been fully involved in the preparation of the commission and will continue to play an important role in CCEC.
http://annual.ametsoc.org/2013/index.cfm/programsand-events/conferences-and-symposia/robert-a-ducesymposium/.
ICSU formally launched “Future Earth—research for global sustainability”.
Acronyms
IUGG is itself one of the members of ICSU, the International Council of Science, which recently launched a new global research program. An alliance of international partners from bodies representing global science, research funding and the UN launched a bold new 10-year initiative on global environmental change research for sustainability at the Forum on Science and Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development on 14 June in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. “Future Earth—research for global sustainability”, will provide a cutting-edge platform to coordinate scientific research which is designed and produced
Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 59
CCEC: Commission on Climate and Environmental Change—one of the five all-Union scientific commission of IUGG. IACS: International Association of Cryospheric Sciences— one of the eight international scientific associations that comprise IUGG. IAG: International Association of Geodesy—one of the eight international scientific associations that comprise IUGG. IAGA: International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy—one of the eight international scientific associations that comprise IUGG.
IAHS: International Association of Hydrological Sciences—one of the eight international scientific associations that comprise IUGG. IAMAS: International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences—one of the eight international scientific associations that comprise IUGG. IAPSO: International Association of Physical Sciences of the Ocean—one of the eight international scientific associations that comprise IUGG. IASPEI: International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior—one of the eight international scientific associations that comprise IUGG. IAVCEI: International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior—one of the eight
international scientific associations that comprise IUGG. ICACGP: IAMAS Commission on Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution—one of the ten scientific commissions of IAMAS. ICCL: International Commission on Climate—one of the ten scientific commissions of IAMAS. ICSU: International Council of Science (originally called the International Council of Scientific Unions, hence the acronym). IUGG: International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics. UN: United Nations. WMO: World Meteorological Organisation.
Supercomputer boost to Australian Research Martyn Pearce
Press release, ANU news, 15 June 2012 The door to the petascale era is being opened for critical Australian research in climate change, the environment, and a host of other areas. Th is transformational change comes with the Australian National University (ANU) signing an agreement with Fujitsu to build and install a 1.2 Petaflop1 supercomputer—the most powerful computer in Australia and amongst the largest in the world—and capable of performing 170,000 calculations per second for each of the seven billion people on the planet. The new petascale supercomputer, to be installed at the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) at ANU, will have the computing power, memory and storage of about 30,000 dual-processor computers working in tandem. ANU Vice-Chancellor Professor Ian Young said: “The new supercomputer will provide Australia with a muchneeded capability to meet national challenges, particularly in areas of research where deeper insights rely upon higher performance computation. “ANU is pleased to be playing its national leadership role by building research infrastructure shaped to meet future challenges, and by fostering the intellectual capital upon which this much-needed capability rests. The development is particularly pleasing in that it extends the University’s 25-year commitment to this national role,” he said. Mike Foster, Chief Executive Officer of Fujitsu Australia and New Zealand said: “We are proud to be able to assist ANU in playing its vital role as one of the leaders in Australian research. When completed, the NCI supercomputer will be one of the largest and fastest computers in the world. Our engagement with ANU on this important project is a great example of how Fujitsu is able to leverage its global resources, technology and expertise at a local level.”
1 1 flop is one floating point operation per second whereas one Petaflop is 1015 floating point operations per second.
Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 60
CSIRO Chief Executive Dr Megan Clark said the new computer would take Australia’s research capacity to a new level. “This is a truly Australian partnership, aiming to boost Australian research and to tackle the big questions. The supercomputer will revolutionise Australia’s research capability through advanced technology and apply that to areas of critical national priority”, Dr Clark said. NCI Director Professor Lindsay Botten said: “This state-of-the-art facility will support Australia through an internationally-competitive capability which raises Australia’s position in high-impact research and innovation. Research in climate modelling, advanced materials, astronomy and medicine is critically dependent on high performance computational modelling and data analysis, and researchers in these areas are among the outstanding teams poised to benefit from the new facility as soon as NCI can make it available later this year.” NCI Chair Professor Mark Wainwright said: “This development is a most significant outcome of the Commonwealth, national agencies and ANU working together to create vital infrastructure for Australia’s researchers. We cannot hope to meet our national challenges without access to an international-class facility of the kind being developed, and Australia cannot hope to create such a facility without the cooperative efforts and advances that ANU, CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology, Geoscience Australia, the Australian Research Council and six leading research intensive universities have made in reaching this agreement. This is a unique partnership.” Dr Rob Vertessy, Acting Director of the Bureau of Meteorology said the supercomputer will provide Bureau scientists with the ability to conduct research on complex weather and climate models in support of the Bureau’s warning and information services For further information visit: http://news.anu.edu. au/?p=15551/ or contact Martyn Pearce on 02 6125 5575.
News from the Centres
NSW Centre news Fiona Johnson
Vice Chair and Publicity, NSW Centre We had a great turn out at the start of July to hear Francis Zwiers from the University of Victoria (Canada) give a talk on “Progress in Detection and Attribution of Changes in Extremes”. Attendees included folk from Wollongong and Newcastle—thanks for making the trip! Francis gave a great talk that provoked some intelligent questions about extreme climate events and their attribution. Canadian bird life photos taken by Francis provided some lighthearted points in an excellent presentation on the
techniques for understanding changes in extreme value distributions. Francis was made very welcome at a postseminar dinner and all attendees enjoyed pre-seminar drinks and nibbles. As we go to print the 2012 AMOS NSW Centre Postgraduate Symposium is being held. See the next issue of BAMOS for a write up on this event. For the remainder of the year, we hope to have a seminar in each of Wollongong and Newcastle—stay tuned for more details.
ACT Centre news Clem Davis
Chair, ACT Centre ACT AMOS held their July meeting on 19 July at CSIRO Discovery Centre on Renewable Energy. Around 30 people braved the cold weather in Canberra to hear talks from Dr Peter Coppin on storage of renewable energy and Michael McClenahan from Solargain on the economics and issues relating to solar energy. The next ACT AMOS function will be held on 18 and 19 August during National Science Week when we will be holding 2 free half-day seminars at the CSIRO Discovery Centre, Black Mountain, ACT.
Saturday 18 August, 9 am to 1 pm: Antarctica—Melting under the Ice. Sunday 19 August, 1 pm to 5pm: Murray Darling Basin— What to do with the water? If anyone is in Canberra at this time you are welcome. It is also possible that CSIRO may be able to arrange live streaming of the event. More details on the speakers and the event will be posted on the AMOS website shortly.
Melbourne Centre news Nicholas Tyrrell and Luke Hande
Regional Sub-editors, Melbourne The 8th annual Pearman Lecture started with a delicious selection of cakes, scones and baked goods for morning tea, all provided by Kelly Drost (Kelly’s baking is famous in Melbourne University’s School of Earth Sciences as her husband, Frank Drost, often brings treats in). The lecture—named after the former chief of CSIRO, Graeme Pearman—was held at CSIRO Aspendale, 25 June and was attended by approximately 80 people. The guest speaker this year was Francis Zwiers, president and CEO of the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium at the University of Victoria. Francis completed his undergraduate studies and PhD in statistics before he worked as a research scientist and then became chief of Canada’s flagship climate modelling research laboratory, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma). Francis is also a lead author with the IPCC and has co-authored an excellent book (Statistical Analysis in Climate Research). With such a strong grounding in mathematics one would expect his lecture to include a number of equations and he didn’t disappoint! For the less mathematically inclined, his slides included some of his beautiful photos of Canadian birds. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 61
He began with an introduction into standard methods of detection and attribution of climate change. The inherent difficulties of the statistical analysis of the earth’s climate were presented, which include the lack of a second ‘control’ earth and a small sampling size (one). Some of these difficulties can be overcome with models and a simple Gaussian setup, which included estimates of real world and model sampling errors, was explained. Francis’ recent work has involved extremes in climate; in statistical terms, events in the tails of the distribution. In climate studies it can refer to a high impact event, exceeding a threshold, a record event, etc. Francis discussed his use of generalised extreme value theory (more maths!) to study the return period of daily temperature extremes—an event that would have been a 20 year maximum temperature extreme in the 1960s would now be a 10 year event. The event concluded with a discussion with the audience that touched on the difficulties of communicating useful information about extremes to the media. The appreciative audience left with a better understanding of the statistics of the climate.
Conference report
13th Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) Users Workshop 25–29 June 2012, Boulder, USA Luke B. Hande
Monash University The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model has become a workhorse for numerical weather prediction and atmospheric research for scientists all over the world. With the number of registered users growing each year, frequent tutorials and workshops are held to discuss the latest model developments and to present research. The 13th WRF Users Workshop was held at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the weather in Colorado was far from benign for a meeting of hundreds of meteorologists, with a heat wave not seen for decades sparking fi res all across the state, including in the mountains around Boulder. The NCAR Mesa lab, below the iconic Flatirons, was temporarily closed while the fires burnt close by. Attended by over 240 people from 22 countries, the workshop began with a continuation of the fundamentals of WRF physics lecture series, this year focussing on cumulus convection. Georg Grell and Jimy Dudhia, some of the big names of atmospheric modelling, spoke about parameterisation options in WRF, and some of the issues with trying to parameterise deep convection on today’s typically fine grid sizes.
aspect of trying to correctly configure a model for a given situation is quite time consuming, redirecting resources and attention from more scientifically interesting questions. The poster session showcased the research efforts of many, with over 100 poster presentations on a variety of topics. The Southern Hemisphere was not well represented at the workshop, with only a handful of participants and posters focussing on that other part of the world south of the equator. On the final day of the workshop there were instructional sessions on tools for WRF, including a tutorial on regional climate downscaling, verification methods and a lecture on using NCAR Command Language (NCL) to produce high quality graphics. However, with some slight relief from the heat and the great outdoors beckoning, attendance on the last day was a little low.
The focus of the workshop was on model developments, with presentations over three days from mostly community developers and operational forecasting users. Sessions on physics development and testing included new schemes to parameterise the planetary boundary layer, and the land surface, as well as modifications to existing schemes. The development of WRF-Chem also featured, as well as development of regional climate capabilities. An important tool in providing accurate forecasts is data assimilation, and as such, there were presentations on data assimilation techniques and operational assimilation systems currently in use. Towards the end of the third day of presentations, there was an interesting session on model coupling and new developments. A fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model was described, providing the ability to more accurately represent the interactions of the whole earth system, instead of individual pieces. A discussion session concluded each day of the workshop and provided a forum for every participant to share their opinions on the development of the model. A popular and recurring topic for discussion was the large number of parameterisation schemes, giving the possibility of thousands of different configurations for the model. This Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 62
Top picture: The NCAR Mesa lab. Middle picture: The Flatirons near Boulder. Bottom picture: Smoke from the fires in Boulder. Images: Luke Hande.
Articles
When is it hottest in Victoria? Jennifer Catto
School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University Address for correspondence: jennifer.catto@monash.edu
1. Introduction Victoria is a state that experiences large seasonal changes in temperatures with fairly cold winters and warm (sometimes very hot) summers (Department of Primary Industry, 2012). Parts of Victoria often experience intense heatwaves that can be associated with bushfires. Almost all of the major bushfire events recorded in Victoria from 1961 to 2011 occurred in the summer months of December, January and February (with one event in 1965 stretching from February into the middle of March; Department of Sustainability and Environment (2012), and one at Wilsons Promontory in April of 2005). These heatwaves by their very nature bring high daily maximum temperatures and bushfires, but does the highest temperature of the year always occur in the summer months?
2. Method To answer the question of when the highest maximum daily temperature occurs in Victoria, homogenised data from the high quality climate site network were used. These data are available from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology1 and were developed by Trewin (2001). Data from 7 different sites in Victoria have been used, namely Cape Otway Lighthouse, Gabo Island, Laverton, Melbourne Regional Office, Rutherglen, Sale and Wilsons Promontory (shown in Figure 1). These were the seven stations that contained very few missing data for the fiftyyear period of interest. The maximum daily temperature 1 www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/hqsites/. Since this article was prepared, the data set used in this study has been superseded by the new ACORN-SAT data set
and the minimum daily temperature were each used, to find the day on which the highest temperature occurred (the hottest day), and also the night of the year when the highest minimum temperature occurred (the warmest night). It was assumed that none of the hottest days would occur during winter, so the years are defined as being from July to June and the 50 years from 1961/1962 to 2010/2011 were investigated.
3. Monthly analysis Figure 2 shows the number of times during the 50-year period that the hottest day of the year occurs in each month for each of the climate data sites. This chart looks how one might expect, with the largest numbers occurring in the middle of the year, i.e. the summer months of December, January and February. January is the month that experiences most hottest days at all stations. At the Melbourne Regional Office, 25 out of 50 of the hottest days occurred in January, followed by 16 in February, 7 in December and 2 in March. The only site to have an even narrower range of hottest day months is Laverton, which has the same number as Melbourne in December and January, and 18 days in February. There are only four sites that have experienced their hottest day in November, and only two in April. Gabo Island is the site with the most surprising result, experiencing its hottest day of the year once in September, nine times in October, and twice as late as April. Since Gabo Island is an exposed coastal station, in order to get very hot temperatures, there must be a strong offshore
Figure 1. Map of Victoria showing locations of climate data sites used. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 63
Number of days Figure 2. Number of days that the hottest day occurs in each month for each of the 7 climate data sites. interesting feature of this fi gure is the low variability in the temperatures by month. From November to March the average temperature of the hottest day remains fairly constant for each of the sites, although between the sites the values vary quite widely. In Melbourne, the average temperature of the hottest day when it occurs in December, January or February is between 40 and 41˚C, and slightly cooler at 38.6°C when it occurs in March. The temperatures of the hottest days at Cape Otway, Wilsons Promontory and Sale are lower than those in Melbourne and Laverton, possibly due to their location on the south coast of Victoria. In particular Gabo Island and Wilsons Promontory, being quite exposed coastal sites, have the lowest average hottest day temperatures. The highest average temperature of the hottest day is for Rutherglen in November, but this is the result of only one year (1997). The average temperatures of the hottest days at Gabo Island do vary depending on the month in which they occur, but the second highest value (after December) is in April, indicating that something other than the seasonal cycle influences these temperatures.
wind. The large-scale circulation pattern associated with the hottest days at Gabo Island has been found using composites of the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) taken from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalysis product, ERA-Interim. The composites of MSLP for 2 days before the hottest day and the hottest day itself are shown in Figure 3 for those hottest days that occurred in October (the patterns are similar for the other months). Typically the hottest day at Gabo Island occurs after a few days of high pressure over the continent (similar to Figure 3a) followed by a trough passing to the south (as in Figure 3b) causing the wind to change to a northwesterly direction. This northwesterly wind would be very hot after the build-up of heat in the interior and would lead to high temperatures. Other stations located further from the coast would have less reliance on this very specific wind direction off the continent to provide high temperatures. This could be the reason that Gabo Island sees such a spread through the year of the hottest days compared to the other stations.
Latitude
Latitude
The average temperatures of the hottest days when they occur in each of the months are shown in Figure 4. An
Figure 3. Composites of mean sea level pressure from the ERA-Interim reanalysis for 2 days prior to the hottest day (a) and the hottest day (b) when the hottest day occurs in October. The X shows the location of Gabo Island. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 64
Temperature (oC) Number of days
Figure 4. Average temperature (oC) of the hottest day when it occurs in each month for each of the 7 climate data sites. early autumn. Melbourne has experienced its warmest The highest maximum daily temperatures over the entire night once in October, three times in both November period are considerably higher than the values taken as and March, and the remainder in December, January and an average for each month. The highest temperature February. Wilsons Promontory is the site with the widest recorded during the period at any of the stations was range of months in which the warmest night occurs. 47.5째C at Laverton on 7 February 2009, the same day that Melbourne recorded its highest temperature of 46.4째C. Figure 6 shows the average temperatures of the warmest This day is known locally as Black Saturday due to the nights for each month and each site. There is not a very wide devastating bushfires that occurred. range through the year in terms of the highest night-time temperatures. The high value in October for Melbourne is The other daily temperature statistic that is of particular attributed to only one year. In fact, the highest recorded interest is the daily minimum temperature. Finding the daily minimum temperature for Melbourne during the maximum of this gives the warmest night of the year. 50 year period occurred on 21 January 1997, with a value Figure 5 shows the number of days that the warmest night of 28.8째C. The highest minimum daily temperature in occurs in each of the months of the year for the seven the last 50 years for all the sites considered was 29째C at sites. The warmest nights tend to be distributed later in Rutherglen on 12 January 1982. the season than the hottest days, with four of the seven stations having their maximum number of warmest nights 4. Variability and Trends of hottest days and warmest in February. One of the most striking aspects is that Gabo Island, which experienced the hottest day in all months nights from September to April, has a much smaller range of The 7 sites that have been considered here show different months in which the warmest night occurs; only January characteristics in terms of when the hottest days and to April. It is likely that the warmest nights at Gabo warmest nights occur and what the temperatures are Island are somewhat influenced by the local sea surface on those days. In fact, some of the sites show strong cotemperatures which are at their warmest in summer and
Figure 5. As for figure 2, but for the warmest night. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 65
Temperature (oC) Figure 6. As for figure 3, but for the warmest night. variability. To investigate this, the 50-year time-series warmest nights occur (Table 4). Perhaps the timing of the of the hottest day temperatures from each of the sites warmest night is more strongly related to more localised were correlated. The correlation between the hottest day effects such as cloud cover and soil moisture effects (Dai temperatures at Melbourne and five of the other stations et al., 1999) rather than the large-scale weather patterns are very high (between 0.6 and 0.9, see Table 1). Th is (and the direction of the winds) that lead to the hottest indicates that the higher the temperature of the hottest days. Since many of the hottest temperatures in southern day at one site, the higher it will be at another, irrespective Victoria rely on strong offshore winds which often occur of when that temperature occurs. The only site that seems just before the passage of a front (or cool change), the unrelated is Gabo Island, which only has a correlation weak correlation in the timing of warmest nights between with Melbourne of 0.06. The temperatures of the hottest the stations could also be influenced by the timing of these days at Gabo Island are also very weakly related to the cool changes. other sites (Table 1). Over the 50-year period of study, positive trends in the In terms of when the hottest days occur, some of the sites highest maximum temperature of between 0.15 and 0.47째C also show strong correlations. The correlations of the 50per decade have been seen at all stations except Gabo year time-series of the day of the year on which the hottest Island. Gabo Island has shown a 0.5째C per decade decrease day occurs between Melbourne and Wilsons Promontory, in the temperatures of the hottest days. Only the trends Cape Otway, Sale and Laverton are fairly high, but at Melbourne and Wilsons Promontory are statistically between Melbourne and Gabo Island and Rutherglen significant. All except Sale have experienced a warming the correlations are lower (see Table 2). This may be due trend in the temperature of the warmest night, but these to the distance between the sites and suggests that the are smaller increases than the hottest day temperature weather patterns leading to the hottest days are different and only the trend at Melbourne is statistically significant. at Gabo Island and Rutherglen to those at Melbourne. These results are consistent with the results of Plummer Nicholls and Larsen (2011) showed that the highest daily et al. (1999) who showed an increase in the frequency maximum temperatures at Melbourne occur when there of extreme hot days and warm nights since 1961, and of are strong northerly winds, i.e. the winds are blowing off Trewin and Vermont (2010) who showed an increase in the hot interior of the continent. These temperatures are the frequency of record high maximum temperatures. even more enhanced if there has been a period of drought 5. Conclusions preceding. At Gabo Island, however, the hottest days occur with a northwesterly wind (as shown in Figure 3). It has been shown that while major bushfire events in Victoria tend to be within the summer months of The temperatures of the warmest nights in Victoria are also December, January and February, there are many years quite strongly correlated between many of the sites (apart in which the hottest day of the year occurs outside these from Gabo Island, see Table 3), however there are much months, mostly in November or March. The warmest weaker links between the sites in terms of when these night of the year can occur as early as September or as late
Table 1. Correlations between the temperature of the hottest day between each of the sites. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 66
Table 2. Correlations between the day of the year on which the hottest day occurs between each of the sites.
Table 3. Correlation between the temperature of the warmest night between Table 4. Correlations between the day of the year on which the warmest night each of the sites. occurs between each of the sites. Chestnut, L.G., W.S. Breffle, J.B. Smith, and L.S. Kalkstein, as May at Wilsons Promontory, but at most sites between 1998, Analysis of differences in hot-weather-related October and April. The timing of these two events is not mortality across 44 U.S. metropolitan areas, Environmental very strongly linked at most of the sites. Science and Policy, 1, 59–70. Although we see that the largest number of the hottest Dai, A., K.E. Trenberth, and T.R. Karl, 1999, Effects of days occur in January, there are still a large number in clouds, soil moisture, precipitation and water vapor on February, along with the largest number of warmest diurnal temperature range, Journal of Climate, 12, 2451– nights. In buildings without air conditioning indoor 2473. temperature would remain high on these very warm nights, exacerbating discomfort felt from high temperatures Kendon, M., 2012, When was the warmest day of 2011?, during the following days. Th is might be an important Weather, 67, 2, pages 44–45 consideration for schools, businesses and, more broadly, Loughnan, M.E., N. Nicholls, and N.J. Tapper, 2010, public health at this time of the year. When the heat is on: Th reshold temperatures for AMI The increasing trend in the temperatures of the warmest admissions to hospital in Melbourne Australia, Applied nights would also have serious impacts on human health Geography, 30, 63–69. as in some regions the variability of the night-time Nicholls, N. and S. Larsen, 2011, Impact of drought on temperature has the strongest influence on heat related temperature extremes in Melbourne, Australia, Australian mortality (Chestnut et al., 1998, Loughnan et al., 2010). Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 61, 113–116.
Acknowledgements
The author acknowledges the work of Kendon (2012) which provided the inspiration for this study. JLC is supported by the Australian Research Council through the Linkage Project grant LP0883961 and the Discovery Project grant DP0877417.
References Department of Sustainability and Environment, 2012, Bushfire history - Major bushfires in Victoria, www.dse. vic.gov.au/fire-and-other-emergencies/major-bushfires-invictoria/ Department of Primary Industry, 2012, Victoria Resources Online: Temperature, http://vro.dpi.gov.au/dpi/vro/vrosite. nsf/pages/climate-temperature/
Plummer, N., M.J. Salinger, N. Nicholls, R. Suppiah, K.J. Hennessy, R.M. Leighton, B. Trewin, C.M. Page, and J.M. Lough, 1999, Changes in climate extremes over the Australian region and New Zealand during the twentieth century, Climatic Change, 42, 183–202. Trewin, B., 2001, Extreme temperature events in Australia. PhD Thesis, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia. Trewin, B. , and H. Vermont, 2010, Changes in the frequency of record temperatures in Australia, 1957–2009, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 60, 113–119.
AMOS Melbourne Centre 2012 Postgraduate Student Symposium Wednesday 28th November, 9am-5pm Fritz Loewe Theatre, McCoy Building, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria. All Victorian and Tasmanian postgraduate students, as well as those considering postgraduate study, are welcome to attend and encouraged to present. This event aims to provide a friendly environment for Honours, Masters and PhD students to share their research, practice their presentation skills and share their experience of postgraduate study. Morning and afternoon tea will be provided and there will be a post-symposium social event with free pizza and beer. To register, go to www.amos.org.au/events and follow the links
Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 67
Meet a Member
Joe Courtney Where does this find you? At my desk looking out on a sunny Perth winter’s day. What do you do? I am the Bureau’s national Tropical Cyclone (TC) competency trainer. Th is means I help my fellow meteorologists forecast TCs from training, mentoring, assessments, process/system improvement, and a little research. I also get my hands dirty doing the forecasting myself. Why did you get into it? I decided to focus on tropical cyclones because our forecasts and briefings make a real difference in getting people prepared to avert damage and injury plus also saving industry millions of dollars in the process. TCs are also fascinating, spectacular and sometimes dangerous— each one that forms is completely unique. It’s exciting as there is so much scope to both improve what we do and help decision-makers and the community in general to be better informed. What is the best thing about what you do? Sitting in the hot seat during a TC event while working with the team to come up with a forecast and brief emergency services on what we think may happen. We have incredibly talented and dedicated people here and we support each other through what can be stressful and challenging days. All the work in training and improving the work process pays off in the end, and of course we always get it right! For me it is the best job in the organisation. What did you want to be when you were 10? I didn’t look further than my 11th birthday—running around playing soccer and cricket for the rest of my life seemed like a good idea. I didn’t have a career in mind until I was 21 when I put in for meteorology. I can’t imagine doing anything else.
Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 68
Joe Courtney Bureau of Meteorology. Image: Peter Courtney How do you relax? Walking somewhere in the bush. I do the odd bit of painting and I’m learning the guitar at the moment and hoping to write some songs but I can’t imagine giving up my day job anytime soon. What is your favourite holiday destination? I’ve been lucky enough to have travelled in about 40 countries and have just returned from six weeks in Europe so it is difficult to be specific. Anywhere with a mountain and wilderness comes to mind—walking the Larapinta Trail in the west MacDonnell Ranges was a favourite. Then again cities like Jerusalem, Copenhagen and Istanbul are quite amazing too.
Snapshot
Sunset off the coast of Bunbury Western Australia, 15 April 2010 Anna Haley
This image shows a mid-autumn sunset off the coast of Western Australia, punctuated by numerous cumulus humilis and cumulus fractus clouds. Notice the slant in the clouds’ vertical extent, indicative of the presence of wind shear above the cloud-base. Also notice the corona around the sun caused by diffraction of sunlight by the cloud droplets, along with the presence of crepuscular
Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 69
rays. Another important feature of this picture is what appears to be a cumulus-baby-elephant, floating above the sea and enjoying the setting sun. If you have an image of the weather near you to share, send it to duncan.ackerley@monash.edu, or post it on the AMOS Facebook page. — Ed.
Charts from the Past with Blair Trewin
29 August 1982 The strong El Niño year of 1982 saw severe drought affect much of eastern Australia, with dry conditions persisting from April 1982 to February 1983 in many areas. The winter of 1982 was especially dry. It was the driest winter on record for Australia and for Victoria, and ranked second or third in Tasmania, South Australia and New South Wales. August also was among the three driest for all four states. June and July were frosty with some very low minimum temperatures at times. Nights remained cold in August, but relatively warm daytime temperatures became established early in the month and persisted to the end. In many parts of eastern and central Australia south of the tropics, almost every day of the month had above-normal temperatures. Monthly mean maximum temperatures were 4°C or more above normal over a vast area covering most of inland New South Wales and Victoria, and South Australia from Adelaide northwards. In contrast, they were 3 to 4°C below normal in parts of north Queensland, where persistent high pressure situated to the south drove southeasterly winds and rain onto the tropical coast; Bellenden Ker received 952 mm for the month. It was the warmest August on record in South Australia, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania (a record subsequently broken in 2011). In South Australia, the monthly maximum temperature anomaly of +4.38°C is the largest for any month for the state, while August 1982 also held this record in NSW until it was broken in November 2009. The peak of the August warmth came late in the month. After a front crossed southeastern Australia on the 24th, bringing severe winds to Tasmania but little rain, high
pressure quickly became established in the Bight, shifting to the Tasman Sea by the 27th. High pressure over the Tasman is the classic situation for excess warmth in the southeast, as it was again on this occasion. Ahead of an approaching front, fresh northwesterly winds extended across the southeast on the 29th, bringing warmth which was the culmination of an exceptionally warm week. Melbourne, having broken its August record the previous day with 25.7°C, did so again with 26.5°C. Other records included 29.2°C at Point Hicks (0.7°C short of the state August record), 28.2°C at Nhill, 24.9°C at Rutherglen, 23.0°C at Ballarat and 24.3°C at Swansea (Tasmania). A weak front crossed the southeast overnight, bringing 10–30 millimetres of rain to western Tasmania but little elsewhere. Victoria and Tasmania cooled but there was little impact elsewhere. The 30th was the hottest day of the event in New South Wales. Canberra reached an August record of 24.0°C, the culmination of six consecutive days above 21°C (no other August has seen more than two), while other records set included Wagga Wagga (26.6°C) and Moruya Heads (29.0°C). Many August records were also set further north in NSW, but they were subsequently broken in 1995. At the same time, parts of the tropics were unseasonably moist in the easterly fl ow, with scattered thunderstorm activity in the NT Top End; Nightcliff received 37.8 millimetres in a thunderstorm on the 30th. As this was a winter event, its immediate impacts were few, although there was a small bushfire on the 29th in the Beaconsfield area east of Melbourne. Nevertheless, the event made further contributions to drying out agricultural areas and worsening an already serious drought situation.
Synoptic chart for 0000 UTC (1000 AEST), 29 August 1982.
Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 70
Calendar
2012
3–7 AGU 2012 Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California, USA.
August
2013
13–17 AOGS–AGU (WPGM) Joint Assembly, Sentosa Singapore. 20–24 15th Conference on Mountain Meteorology, Colorado, USA.
January
26–30 32nd International Geographic Congress, Cologne Germany.
6–10 93rd AMS Annual Meeting, “Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today’s Weather, Water, and Climate Forecasting and Projections.” Austin, Texas, USA.
October
February
8–12 AGU Chapman Conference on The Agulhas System and its Role in Changing Ocean Circulation, Climate, and Marine Ecosystems, Spier Hotel, Stellenbosch, Western Cape, South Africa.
11–13 19th Annual AMOS Conference, “Sense and sensitivity: Understanding our changing climate,” Melbourne.
22–25 NOAA’s 37th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, Colorado, USA.
April 7–12 EGU General Assembly 2013, Vienna, Austria.
November
June
5–8 AMS 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, Tennessee, USA
17–21 AMS, 19th Conference on Atmospheric and Oceanic Fluid Dynamics, Newport, Rhode Island, USA.
12–15 CAWCR Annual Workshop, Melbourne.
17–21 AMS, 17th Conference on the Middle Atmosphere, Newport, Rhode Island, USA.
19–20 New Zealand MetSoc. Annual conference, Wellington, New Zealand.
December
24–28 19th International Conference on Nucleation and Atmospheric Aerosols Fort Collins, CO, USA (website and 1st Circular in preparation).
3–4 Annual International Conference on Geological & Earth Sciences (GEOS 2012), Hotel Fort Canning, Singapore.
Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal
Articles — Vol 62 No. 1, March 2012 Courtney et al. Documentation and verification of the world extreme wind gust record. Larsen and Nicholls. The nature of the recent rainfall decrease in the vicinity of Melbourne, southeastern Australia, and its impact on soil water balance and groundwater recharge. Radhi et al. Biomass-burning aerosol over northern Australia. Shaik and Lisonbee. The tropical circulation in the Australian/Asian region–November 2010 to April 2011.
Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 71
Regular Features: Tobin and Skinner. Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (autumn 2011): one of the strongest La Nina events on record begins to decline. Wu. Quarterly numerical weather prediction model performance summary — October to December 2011.
2012 AMOS Council Executive
President Vice-President Secretary Treasurer Past President
Blair Trewin Todd Lane Damien Irving Ian Watterson Neville Nicholls
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2012 Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society ISSN 1035-6576
Editor
Duncan Ackerley Monash Weather and Climate School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University VIC 3800 Phone: 03-9902 4900 Fax: 03-9005 4403 Email:duncan.ackerley@monash.edu
Editor-in-chief Stewart Allen
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Publisher
AMOS, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia
Diana Greenslade Blair Trewin Linden Ashcroft
Contributed articles, news, announcements and correspondence for the Bulletin should be sent to the editor no later than 28 September 2012. They will be reviewed and the galley proofs returned to the author if requested. An ASCII version of the text is required via e-mail or digital media to minimise typographic errors. The Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society is produced and distributed with the assistance of CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and the Bureau of Meteorology. AMOS Website: www.amos.org.au