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JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH 2015
IN THIS ISSUE FEATURE STORY PAGE 2
Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015: Multifamily’s Great Debate
VEGAS VENTURES PAGE 3
To Buy or Not To Buy? plus Apartment Boom May Put Lid On Rising Rents
MARKETING MINUTE PAGE 6
Marketing Trends Coming to Multifamily in 2015
FUTURE FOCUS PAGE 9
SPECIAL HOUSING REPORT: Consumers Upbeat, but Recovery Faces a Tricky Handoff in 2015
OCCUPANCY CORNER PAGE 14 Las Vegas Metro Occupancy Results ACCESSLASVEGAS
Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015 Shows Mixed Apartment Signals Real Estate’s Trendsetter Enters Debatable Complex Period Multifamily was unquestionably real estate’s trendsetter in the first years of recovery. Now that apartments have reached a more mature phase of their cycle, we get to a more interesting period. More interesting, in the first place, because the investment / development questions become more complex and nuanced. And more interesting because it is probable that issues and strategies that will be tested in 2015 in the multifamily sector will help shape the template for 2016–2018 in other property types. Keep your eye on apartments this year. If you go by just the numbers, the opinions of the Emerging Trends survey respondents seem sharply divided. For high-end 66 multifamily, nearly half of the respondents (48 percent) felt it would be smart to divest in 2015, while 30 percent consider it worthwhile to hold for a longer period. Only 21 percent suggest this is a good time to buy. At the more moderate income level, that relationship was reversed. Only 28 percent recommend selling while holding and acquisition are more attractive, with 37 percent and 35 percent recommending these strategies, respectively, in the year ahead. What gives? The survey subtly distinguishes between the moderate-and upper-income tiers’ investment and development prospects. For investment, more moderately priced apartments have the edge, with a 3.50 rating versus the higherincome properties at 3.28. Despite this, the upper-income units have such an attractive price-to-cost spread that they have the edge in development prospects, 3.35 to 3.25. CONTINUED ON PAGE 2 JANUARY | FEBRUARY | MARCH 2015
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Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015: Multifamily’s Great Debate As Digested from Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2015
FEATURESTORY PAGE 2
The overarching context is that next year and beyond, the demand fundamentals for moderate apartments continue to contribute positively to the chain reaction. look very good. Many interviewees expect the millennials to move into homeownership in some significant numbers, but that won’t happen until 2020 or later. One economic forecaster sees terrific opportunities to buy value-add multifamily and suggests as a “best bet” purchasing “B” buildings in “A” markets. The thinking is that such properties can be repositioned and that the overheated luxury market exerts upward pressure on even more modest rentals. Should the acceleration in the job market begin to push incomes up for the middle class -- a hope or a reasonable guess, but not a certainty -- there could be a nice bump in rents for those Class B apartment buildings. Yes, supply is still on the rise. But that, too, is tiered, and a disproportionate share of new construction is at the high end. This makes sense when urban high-rise property in the gateway markets is priced at 20 to 30 percent more than the cost to construct. Of course, this spurs the developers on! Interestingly, though, the urban housing surge is now extending into the Nashvilles, Greenvilles, and Raleighs -- cities where even until recently the central business district (CBD) emptied out in the evening as commuters returned to the suburbs in their cars. Now, while the cities themselves are still labeled “car dependent” by Walkscore.com, their downtowns have good to excellent walkability scores -- and builders have caught on. One hallmark of these Southeast markets is their cost-competitiveness in comparison with the large coastal cities. Locally low cost of living, in turn, argues for moderate-rent apartments as the better investment opportunity.
CONTINUED FROM COVER PAGE Survey respondents expect upward cap-rate adjustment, though most of the shift will not happen in 2015 but in the 2016–2018 period. The sense of urgency to sell just isn’t at hand right now. Although 48 percent think it’s a good time to sell luxury, the coming year is not anticipated to see major change. Time to book profits remains. Impacts are forecast to be “at the margin.” The luxury end has had cap rates driven down the most, and should expect greater cap-rate expansion -- 90 basis points -- by 2018, while more middle-income properties face a rise of 70 basis points. The investment pricing differential, in other words, is expected to narrow as we go into the future. That’s a trend to watch.
Some earlier favorites are already victims of their own success. A local investment manager looks at Boston’s lively apartment development scene and says, “Whoa! Too much!” And a veteran institutional investor looks at Washington, D.C., multifamily and sees one of the nation’s biggest real estate risks for 2015. Sure enough, the Emerging Trends survey has Boston down in 20th place for multifamily investment prospects and 21st for development, and D.C. ranks 30th in investment prospects and 32nd for development. Several interviewees singled out Boston and Washington as multifamily markets that have “gotten ahead of themselves.” Interestingly, though, survey respondents still felt that both Boston and Washington represented “buy” opportunities, by 49 percent and
What might account for this? Developers’ preferences for upper-end apartments notwithstanding, the depth of demand for luxury rental units goes only so far. Wealthy households prefer to own their homes -- and most already do. The bulk of pent-up and emerging demand comes from the battered middle-income and lower-middle-income sector, predominantly renters. As the forecasted gains in employment take hold, millennial sharers, “boomerang children,” domestic migrants, and international immigrants represent the bulk of new residential renter demand. Developers may actually be able to “make up in volume what they can’t achieve in price.” ACCESSLASVEGAS
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41 percent of the respondents, respectively -- which must mean they are looking beyond 2015 to longer-term market strength. Otherwise, it is many of the “usual suspects” that are in the top 20 rankings, as well as many newcomers such as Nashville, Austin, San Jose, Orange County, Portland, and Brooklyn. Brooklyn, New York, ranked number one, has long been in the shadows of Manhattan’s skyscrapers. It has become the “hip” borough in recent years as the young “creative class” element has been priced out of many Manhattan neighborhoods. As a screening device, one investor looks for markets with science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) strength -- which usually means a big research university drawing young tech and engineering talent in need of apartments, with salaries that are attractive to the owners of rental complexes. The real strength in multifamily, though, is that it is not dependent upon just one demand segment. As local economies grow and the number of jobs rises, rental housing is required. This is not rocket science. Unless you are a contrarian, though, don’t expect a rapid upward turnaround for suburban garden apartments. Once a classic vehicle for developers and investors riding the wave out of the center city, these are now out of favor with millennial renters and portfolio managers alike. Still, transaction data show that there’s a steady parade of buyers for garden apartment product, which has about a 150-basis-point-higher cap rate than mid and high-rise multifamily. As potent as the urbanization trend is, there is still a huge base of suburban units out there -- and they are a lot cheaper.
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How Does the West Stack Up? Eight of the 20 markets in the West region are in this year’s top 20, so the region has an impressive average rank of 34. Phoenix, at number 26, is the highest-ranked West region market outside of the top 20. Salt Lake City, at number 36, is the only other West region market in the top half of this year’s survey. In general, survey respondents appear to be positive on all property sectors in the West region. The average outlook is good for the multifamily, industrial, and singlefamily housing sectors. The outlook for the other property types is fair, with the hotel property type trailing the other sectors. The Bay Area and southern California markets lead the region in terms of outlook for multifamily investments. Albuquerque, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and Honolulu also are ranked as offering good investment potential in 2015. Las Vegas ranked 64th and was just average for investment opportunities. The Inland Empire and Phoenix are the top regional industrial markets outside of the top 20. Salt Lake City and Tacoma also have good outlooks for 2015. The higher-ranked markets in the West region all have national or regional distribution characteristics. The remaining markets are dependent on the strength of their local economies to drive industrial demand. Survey respondents like the single-family housing market in the West region. Salt Lake City and Phoenix have the highest scores for markets that are not included in the overall top 20. No market in the West region has an outlook score below fair for 2015. The overall outlook for the office sector in the West region is fair. The outlook is substantially stronger in the eight markets that were included in the overall top 20, with Phoenix having the highest score for a market not in that top group. Survey respondents are less favorable toward the potential for retail investments outside of the markets in the overall top 20. Phoenix and Albuquerque are the highest-scoring markets, but they are in the fair category. The best opportunities in the hotel sector appear to be concentrated in the markets in the overall top 20, and even these are limited to a smaller number of markets. San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Denver appear to offer the best opportunities for 2015.
Vegas Making a Nice Apartment Comeback At Axiometrics, our job is to monitor apartment and student housing markets. This is fun, as it requires a thorough analysis of interesting trends such as jobs, economics and trends. Our monthly monitoring also gives us a heads-up when markets improve. One such market that is well on that improvement track is the Las Vegas-Paradise, NV Metropolitan Statistical Area and annual effective rent growth in the Las Vegas metro was 4.8%. In comparison, the national effective rent growth in September was 4.3%. For further comparison, the typical annual ERG long-term average is 2% (going back to 1997). And while Las Vegas occupancy was 93.6% (below the national average of 95.1%), it's still making a nice comeback from where it was even a year ago. Generally, effective rent growth doesn't increase unless landlords and apartment owners are happy about the economy and prospects for apartments. Here's why they're happy in Las Vegas: -- Positive job growth hovering between the upper 2% and lower 3% range annually, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. -- Continuous increase in home prices, forcing more folks to consider renting, according to the National Association of Realtors, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Federal Housing Finance Agency. -- Not a whole lot of current supply to meet growing demand, according to Axiometrics and the U.S. Census Bureau. Even better news for landlords and apartment investors is that Axiometrics is forecasting this state of affairs to continue well into 2015 before moderating in early 2016. Rents and occupancy will increase, as will jobs. In other words, what might have been considered an investment gamble in Las Vegas not so long ago might not be so risky these days.
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JANUARY | FEBRUARY | MARCH 2015
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Y O U R A C C E S S T O T H E L A S V E G A S M U LT I - F A M I LY H O U S I N G M A R K E T
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Kislak Group Buys SW Las Vegas Asset for $29.3M
Alicante Villa also offers views of the nearby mountains.
stock. In 2015, another 250,000 completed apartment units are expected.
According to Thomas Bartelmo, the CEO of the Kislak Organization, the company has been observing the market “very closely” and the company moved for Alicante Villas as a result. Bartelmo also noted that “we are continuing to look for opportunities to expand our presence in this dynamic city.”
"At this point in the cycle, we've seen supply take hold almost everywhere," says Francis Yuen, who is with CoStar Portfolio Strategy. "Some late-recovery markets like Las Vegas aren't yet seeing vacancy increases yet; but even there, developers are beginning to find opportunities."
Written By Alex Girda, Multi-Housing News
Apartment Boom May Put Lid On Rising Rents
Some booming apartment markets that have seen more than 10,000 units added over the past four quarters include Dallas, D.C., Houston and Denver.
Information Digested from CoStar Group
As a deal recently completed by the Kislak Organization shows, signs are pointing n multi-family investment market that continues to exceed expectations. The Miami Lakes, Fla.-based firm recently paid $29.3 million for the Alicante Villa Apartments, a 232-unit complex in south Las Vegas.
"Lack of affordability is certainly something we are beginning to see capping rent growth, especially at the high end of the market," Yuen says.
The transaction between Kislak and seller Alicante Villa Apartments, LLC was arranged by Jeffrey Swinger and Spencer Ballif of CBRE Group Inc. Andrew Behrens, vice chairman with CBRE Capital Markets’ Debt and Structured Finance Institutional Group, secured acquisition financing through Freddie Mac.
As builders quickly ramp up U.S. apartment construction to meet rising demand, vacancy rates are starting to rise. That could help limit rent increases in 2015, according to economists with the CoStar Group.
Alicante Villa Apartments is located in the city’s fast-growing southwest area, which offers attractive retail and dining choices as well as major employment centers. Also nearby is Downtown Summerlin, the 1.6 million-square-foot shopping, dining and entertainment district that opened its doors last month.
The economists predict rent growth will slow to below 2 percent in 2015 as the multifamily market increases construction. They say apartment vacancy rates will rise in 46 of the country's 54 top metros over the next four quarters "due to the massive wave of current apartment deliveries and new apartment projects starting almost daily."
Developed in 2001, Alicante Villa offers amenities that include a pool, spa, health center, a barbecue area,a community courtyard, a business center and a controlled-access gate. Kislak is considering upgrades of unit interiors, clubhouse, amenities and exterior. The asset includes one-, two- and three-bedroom units with spacious kitchens and walk-in closets.
Vacancy rates -- currently at 4.1 percent -will likely push higher than 5 percent by the end of 2015, according to CoStar. Still, even with the boom in building, apartment vacancies are expected to remain near 10year lows across most of the country next year.
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But many of the new construction projects are expensive luxury properties. Therefore, the affordability gap could widen. CoStar economists point to the Oakland/East Bay Area in San Francisco, where the average income has surged about 15 percent to more than $75,000 -- but rents have grown 30 percent during the same time period. Rents now eat up more than 25 percent of a person's annual income there, Yuen says.
In 2014, builders will add more than 220,000 new apartment units to the country's housing
To Buy or Not To Buy? Information Digested from Trulia.com The cost of renting has outpaced the cost of buying a home in many of the nation's 100 largest metros, according to a recent study by Trulia. Here are some of the top-line takeaways of the report: 20%; The percentage of down payment that makes buying cheaper than renting in 94 of 100 metros. 3%; Standard FHA loans make buying cheaper than renting in 75 of 100 metros. 19%; The average nationwide saving from buying instead of renting. 64.4%; The homeownership rate in Q3 2014, the lowest since 1995. In 40 metros, it's more expensive to buy than rent if the resident stays in the home only three years. JANUARY | FEBRUARY | MARCH 2015
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Less Is More New Research Looks at the Growing Appeal of Micro Units as a More Affordable Option in Sought-After Urban Locations Written By Robert Krueger, Urban Land Institute New research from the Urban Land Institute suggests that micro units -- typically larger than a one-car garage, smaller than a double -- have staying power as a housing type that appeals to urban dwellers in high-cost markets who are willing to trade space for improved affordability and proximity to downtown neighborhoods.
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• The appeal of micro units is largely about economics, as well as place and privacy. Those interested in micro units are seeking to lower their rental costs (the units typically rent for 20 to 30 percent less than larger units); they are also drawn to the trendy “hip” locations where micro units tend to be built, and by the ability to live alone. • Nearly a quarter of the renters surveyed who live in conventional apartments said they would be interested in renting a micro unit. Fifty-eight percent said they would not be interested, primarily due to the lack of a separate bedroom, less storage space and less living or dining space. • Those who are interested in switching to micro units ranked access to a grocery store as their top priority for a neighborhood amenity, followed by restaurants and a gym. In terms of project amenities, a laundry room ranked highest, followed by assigned parking, visitor parking, and a fitness center; and for unit amenities, a washer and dryer ranked first, followed by built-in closet/drawers and storage space. More than half were interested in multi-functional, convertible furniture. • Those currently living in micro units cited location as the top factor influencing their decision to move into the small units, followed by price, proximity to work/education institutions, proximity to neighborhood amenities, the ability to live alone, and proximity to transit. • Smaller and micro units outperform conventional units in the marketplace, in terms of achieving higher occupancy rates and garnering significant rental rate premiums (rent per square foot) compared with conventional units. • The market is shifting toward a greater mix of smaller studio and onebedroom units being included in traditional apartment communities, as well as more construction of micro-unit communities. Studio and onebedroom units accounted for nearly 51 percent of the 2012-2013 completions, up drastically from 41 percent in 2002-2003.
The Macro View on Micro Units includes an analysis by MPF Research of more than 400 rental apartment communities (comprising more than 90,000 units) built in 2012-2013 in the 35 U.S. metro areas that experienced the highest concentration of multifamily construction during that period. It also includes findings from more than 3,500 responses to an early 2014 survey by Kingsley Associates of renters of both conventional apartments and micro units; and case studies drawn from 30 existing and 18 planned rental communities with micro units that were identified by RCLCO (Robert Charles Lesser & Co.). The Macro View on Micro Units was prepared for ULI’s Multifamily Housing Councils with support from a grant awarded in 2013 by the ULI Foundation.
Key Findings from the Report • Micro units are typically about 350 square feet in size, but can range from less than 250 square feet to 500 square feet, depending on the city building code requirements. They have no separate bedroom; sleeping space is combined with living space, but they do have fully functional bathrooms and kitchens. Micro unit communities place heavy emphasis on multiple amenities outside the units themselves, such as shared communal spaces that encourage socializing and foster a sense of community. • The target market profile for micro units is predominantly young professional singles, typically under 30 years of age, earning less than $40,000, trending slightly more toward males than females. Other market segments include couples, older single empty-nesters, and temporary users. Singles currently living with roommates tend to be the most interested in making the switch from a traditional unit to a micro unit. ACCESSLASVEGAS
• Despite the rising popularity of micro units, some developers are building in the flexibility to easily convert two side-by-side units into one larger unit if demand shifts back to more conventional models.
RCLCO’s case study research identifies four trends (primarily associated with Generation Y) that are linked to the rising appeal of the units: delayed household formation; an increase in single-person households; a decrease in car ownership; and the tendency to accumulate fewer belongings and participate in the “sharing economy.” Among the case studies that contributed to the best practices and lessons learned: Factory 63 in Boston; The Flats in Chicago; Lofts at 7 in San Francisco; Arcade Providence in Providence, Rhode Island; Eko Haus Freedom Center in Portland, Oregon; and My Micro NY in Kips Bay, New York. “Whether this (increased development of micro units) turns out to be a lasting phenomenon or a passing fad, micro units have renewed the focus on efficient layouts and innovative design solutions,” concludes the report. Interested and want to learn more about this trend? You can download the entire report at: http://uli.org/wp-content/uploads/ULIDocuments/The-Macro-View-on-Micro-Units.pdf The mission of the Urban Land Institute is to provide leadership in the responsible use of land and in creating and sustaining thriving communities world.
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Marketing Trends Coming to Multifamily in 2015 Written By Lea Lashley, RealPage’s Property Management Insider It has been a good year, especially for the world of marketing. We’ve seen how digital media disrupted apartment marketing in 2014, and how social media has grown in both popularity and usage, giving property managers more ways to engage with residents. Now for the upcoming new year, what marketing trends are on the horizon for the apartment industry? Where should property management companies be investing their time and money? Take a look at just some of the latest marketing methods that could give you an edge in the New Year. 1. Creating content from scratch every time isn’t scalable. Focus on content engineering by leveraging learning materials from a single content source (presentations, handouts, infographics, a proprietary website), crowd source/depend on guest bloggers, crowd source information in social and then curate and share on a blog, etc. Also, remember to keep it simple and create
content that solves the same problem your product solves. 2. Sharable content beats SEO. Every. Time. Stop writing for Google. Keyword placement is important, but it’s no longer the end-all-be-all way to discover good content (and certainly doesn’t encourage sharing). To quote fellow social media expert, Matthew Dooley of Dooley Media and founder of Kapture, “Everything you write -- including what’s inside the URL of a blog post -should be centered on what’s interesting enough for people to engage with and share (vs. just what will show up well in search).” Remember to be human, don’t create content for robots. 3. Gamification. Is the dream is over? Gamification is the use of game mechanics
and design techniques to motivate people to solve problems or achieve certain goals. It can be used beyond an enterprise +employee perspective, despite a still highly segmented gamification market. How do we expand our use of gamification to reap additional benefits in multifamily? Create a gamification strategy for your website or application, apply it to your business internet marketing program, or integrate it with social media. There’s nothing wrong with a little competition. Read more about our gamification tips for multifamily marketing in detail here. 4. Visual communications. Give residents their own virtual reality of what it would be like to live at your property. Thanks to evolving technology (think mobile meets video, drones, hyperlapse technology, interactive walk-throughs, 3D floorplans, and user-generated content) there are vehicles out there to bring your property to life. These methods will give users the power to explore the property from the comfort and convenience of their own homes. Also, you can repurpose this visual content on a blog, social media, via a live feed on your website, in webinars, in your community’s front office and more. Because consumers are changing the way they interact online, and it is clear property owners will need to continue finding new, creative ways to connect with them. If these trends are a sign of the changes coming to apartment marketing, what will happen in 2015? Since we can’t predict the future, we’ll just have to wait and see.
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Five Apartment Amenities to Consider in 2015 Written By Diana Mosher, MHN Online Editorial Director Exercise areas, grooming stations and daycare options for pets are quickly becoming the norm. Developers that don’t provide relevant features for pet owners will be in for a rude awakening. The focus on pets isn’t likely to change anytime soon -- especially if Millennials continue the current trend of getting married and starting families later in life. A quick Google for “wholesale pet products” or “luxury pet products” reveals great ideas for pet-friendly welcome gifts such as paw protection creams or “happy birthday” gourmet dog biscuits. Cat owners are just as passionate about their pets.
Recognize Renters Who Don’t Have Pets The current emphasis on connecting with pet owners is not a priority for renters who don’t have pets. The marketplace will see a demand for special elevators designated for pet owners and “pet free” zones. Certain apartment units will need to be reserved for non-pet residents (especially those who might have allergies).
The Kitchen Does a Vanishing Act Another trend we’re watching is micro kitchens. Open concept kitchens are a great way to make apartment floor plans appear larger and to showcase luxury (or unique) finishes, cabinets and appliances. But the opposite approach also works nicely especially in micro units. Rather than making the kitchen a focal point, hide it away behind
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cabinetry until it’s needed. We recently featured Resource Furniture’s Stealth Kitchen Modules. This new product line is basically a reinterpretation of the very functional hide-away kitchen that allows full-sized appliance, work surfaces and storage areas to become completely invisible when not in use. In as little as six linear feet, a Stealth Kitchen incorporates a refrigerator, freezer, dishwasher, microwave, oven, cook-top, sink, counter space and storage. It all fits behind a wall of cabinetry that blends into its surroundings.
Multi-Generational Living One of the most interesting things to emerge from research on Millennials is that this cohort not only enjoys the company of their parents, they also enjoy the company of their friends’ parents. Multigenerational apartment communities will do very well in the next decade. We are learning from hotel developers about the “Follower” segment of the Baby Boomer demographic. This group is comprised of Baby Boomers who crave design and individuality when they book a hotel, select office space or dine in a restaurant. They want to experience an edgier reality. Their needs are similar to Gen Y. These empty nesters are devoted to their pets (!) and to their mobile devices. Multi-generational living is hardly a new idea, and in most apartment buildings around the world it happens organically. In the next several years, we’ll see a purely North American and highly design- and technology-driven reinterpretation of this model as more developers build boutique apartment communities for multiple (like-minded) generations. Learn to Lease Green Buildings Urban agriculture, saltwater swimming pools and community composting are on the rise in multifamily housing. But some leasing teams are hesitant to use green building certifications in their marketing process because they say these certifications imply that rents are higher at the green-certified property than at another without these credentials. As more multifamily properties are built to green building standards, leasing agents will find creative new ways to incorporate the benefits of green building certification into conversations with prospects.
Food and Beverage Student housing trends provide an excellent way to forecast the desires and habits of tomorrow’s renters. Multifamily developers and operators are also gleaning effective ideas from the hotel business. One of the most interesting trends shared by Rebecca D. Jones, IIDA, principal of R.D. Jones + Associates, at a recent educational panel organized by MHN and hosted by Interface, a manufacturer of modular carpet, at their new Washington, D.C. showroom, is the inclusion of food and beverage into multifamily common areas. Apartment lobbies will resemble hotels (and student housing) even more when they offer residents a convenient place to grab dinner -- or meet for a cup of coffee -- right on the premises. Jones suggests incorporating a few communal tables, in addition to private ones, to open up opportunities for social interaction. ACCESSLASVEGAS
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Five Reasons Renting Trumps Owning (As Told by a Former Renter) Written By Jessica Fiur, MHN Blog
To poorly paraphrase that old commercial for bald guys, “I’m not just an editor for a multifamily publication, I’m also a renter.” Or, at least I was. Recently, I bought a house. So, bye bye, renting, at least for the foreseeable future, and, hello, bright pink walls if I so choose (not that my husband would necessarily go for that, but he’s the only hurdle), growing equity (fingers crossed) and lingering guilt about ordering a $4.30 carmel macchiato when I have mortgage payments to make (totally worth it though). And, though I was, and am, focused on the positives of owning, the whole stressful process of buying a house has made me really appreciate what I had as a renter. Since you’re all multifamily professionals, I know I’m totally preaching to the choir about how awesome apartments are. But, like Joni Mitchell says, “don’t it always seem to go, that you don’t know what you’ve got ’til it’s gone.” So it’s worth a reminder from someone who’s on the outside peeking in (but not, like, in a creepy way), how good renters have it. Be sure to let your prospective renters know.
Reasons Renting Trumps Owning 1. You don’t have to fix your own toilet. Toilet broken, or any other maintenance issue? In an apartment, maintenance workers will fix this. If you own, well, good luck with that plunger. [As property managers, make sure you have a great system in place so that your renters can easily make their requests and get service updates, whether it be an online portal or whatever system you have in place.] 2. You’re usually closer to the action. Oftentimes, apartments are located in cities, and are located near restaurants, entertainment and public transportation. Some even boast how walkable they are to appeal to renters. If you buy, you could be near these things. You can also be located right in the middle of nowhere. And when you ACCESSLASVEGAS
move in, there’s not even a helpful packet filled with take-out menus. How are you supposed to know which is the good Chinese place? Trial and error, I guess. Or, like Yelp, or something. But still, kind of irritating. [Property managers, what's around you could be just as appealing to potential renters as the actual apartments!] 3. Bad neighbors come … and go. Everyone has had to deal with bad neighbors. But if you own, you’re probably stuck with them. And what if they have equally obnoxious guests? Too bad, so sad. In a rental, leases run out and people move. It’s less permanent. Plus, if they want to have guests or sublet, they usually have to go through the property manager or leasing office. Property managers could also intervene if there is a noise complaint or other dispute. [Property managers, keeping the peace between residents can make a better apartment environment for everyone.] 4. There’s usually access to amenities. With some exceptions in some condos and some town houses, many times, once you buy, you typically forgo a lot of amenities. Personally, I’m saying goodbye to a gym, swimming pool, playground, shuttle to public transportation, dry cleaning pick up, and someone to sign for my packages. I’m going to really miss those swings. [Property managers, keep your amenities updated and make sure they're in demand. They're a big draw for renters!] 5. Things don’t go bump in the night. There’s a reason that Friday the 13th is super freaky, but Jason Takes Manhattan is a joke. Well, there are many reasons. Anyway, it’s totally scarier being alone out in the suburbs than in a high-rise apartment with tons of other people around. (And, yes, I know Friday the 13th took place in a camp, but those bunks are similar to houses. Whatever. Use Halloween as an example instead. Nerd.) Additionally, Property managers normally make safety a priority for residents by making sure outdoor areas are well-lit. JANUARY | FEBRUARY | MARCH 2015
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SPECIAL HOUSING REPORT: Consumers Upbeat, but Recovery Faces a Tricky Handoff in 2015 Written By Jed Kolko, Chief Economist for Trulia.com Consumers think 2015 will be a better year than 2014, especially for selling a home. But the recovery will slow as the rebound effect fades before fundamentals become strong. Key markets to watch are in the Northeast, South, and West. What does 2015 have in store for the housing market? Nine years after the housing bubble peaked and three years after home prices bottomed, the boom and bust still cast a long shadow. None of the five measures we track in our Housing Barometer is back to normal yet, though three are getting close. The rebound effect drove the recovery after the bust, but is now fading. Prices are no longer significantly undervalued and investor demand is falling. Ideally, strong economic and demographic fundamentals like job growth and household formation would take up the slack. But the virtuous cycle of gains in jobs and housing is relatively weak, and that will slow the recovery in 2015. All the same, consumers are optimistic, according to our survey of 2,008 American adults conducted November 6-10, 2014.
Consumers Expect 2015 To Be Better, Especially for Selling a Home Consumers are as optimistic about the housing market as at any point since the recovery started. Nearly three-quarters -- 74% -- of respondents agreed that home ownership was part of achieving their personal American Dream – the same level as in our 2013 Q4 survey and slightly above the levels of the three previous years. For young adults, the dream has revived: 78% of 18-34 year-olds answered yes to our American Dream question, up from 73% in 2013 Q4 and a low of 65% in 2011 Q3.
Furthermore, 93% of young renters plan to buy a home someday. That’s unchanged from 2012 Q4 despite rising home prices and worsening affordability. Which real estate activities do consumers think will improve in 2015? All of them – but especially selling. Fully 36% said 2015 will be much or a little better than 2014 for selling a home. Just 16% said 2015 will be much or a little worse, a difference of 20 percentage points. The rest of the respondents said 2015 would be neither better nor worse, or weren’t sure. More consumers said 2015 will be better than 2014 for buying too. But the margin over those who said 2015 will be worse was not as wide. Despite this optimism, barriers remain to homeownership. Saving for a down payment is still the highest hurdle, as it was last year, followed by poor credit and qualifying for a mortgage. Not having a stable job has become considerably less of an obstacle, dropping to 24% this year compared with 36% last year thanks to the recovering job market. But affordability has become a bigger obstacle. Some 32% of respondents cited rising home prices, compared with 22% last year.
Housing Recovery in 2015: Rebound Effect to Fade Before Fundamentals Can Take Over Different engines power each stage of the housing recovery. During the early years -- 2012 to 2014 -- the rebound effect drove the recovery. ACCESSLASVEGAS
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Investors and other buyers scooped up undervalued homes and took advantage of foreclosures and short sales, boosting overall sales volumes. Local markets hit hardest in the housing bust posted the largest price rebounds. Now, though, the rebound effect is fading. Price levels and price changes are both approaching normal, foreclosure inventories are dwindling, and investors are pulling back. This is inevitable as the market improves and therefore shifts to slower, more sustainable price increases and a healthier mix of home sales.
So what replaces the rebound effect in the next stage of the housing recovery? The market increasingly depends on fundamentals such as job growth, rising incomes, and more household formation. But here’s the hitch: These fundamental drivers of supply and demand haven’t returned to full strength. They aren’t able to fully take the reins from the rebound effect. Importantly, the share of young adults with jobs is still less than halfway back to normal, many young adults are still living with their parents, and income growth is sluggish. This points to a tricky handoff, and means housing activity in 2015 might disappoint by some measures, though the rental market will remain vigorous.
Here’s What We Expect: ★
★
The rental market will keep burning bright. Next year will see strong rental demand and lots of new supply. The demand will come from young people leaving homes belonging to parents or roommates and renting their own places. Until now, they’ve been slow to leave the nest. But the 2014 job gains for 25-34 year-olds should lead to the rise in household formation we’ve been waiting years for. At the same time, the 2014 apartment construction boom will mean more supply in 2015 since multiunit buildings take about a year to build. Will rent gains slow? Probably -- provided that this new supply keeps up with formation of renter households. This surge of renters will probably cause the homeownership rate to fall. To be sure, the ranks of homeowners will probably rise. But an even larger number of young adults will enter the housing market as renters.
★
Single-family starts and new home sales could disappoint. While apartment construction is breaking records, single-family housing starts and new home sales are still not much better than half of normal levels. They’ll improve in 2015, but not as much as we’d like. Our consumer survey suggests more people will try to sell existing homes. That would add to the supply on the market and possibly reduce demand for new homes. Also, the strongest source of housing demand will be young people getting jobs and forming households. But they’ll be moving into rentals and saving for a down payment rather than buying homes right away. Finally, the vacancy rate for single-family homes is still near its recession high, which discourages new construction. The apartment construction boom shows that where there’s demand, builders will build. But buyer demand for single-family homes simply hasn’t recovered enough to support near-normal levels of single-family starts or new home sales.
If these predictions for 2015 sound similar to our predictions for 2014, you’re right. As the rebound effect fades and fundamentals take over, the recovery gets slower and the market starts to look more similar from one year to the next. But there’s good news here. Even though the recovery remains unfinished, the housing market is becoming more stable and more certain for buyers, sellers, and renters.
Markets to Watch in 2015 As the rebound effect fades, our 10 markets to watch have strong fundamentals for housing activity. These include solid job growth, which fuels housing demand, and a low vacancy rate, which spurs construction. We gave a few extra points to markets with a higher share of millennials. These young adults are getting back to work and that will drive household formation and rental demand. We didn’t include markets where prices looked at least 5% overvalued in our latest Bubble Watch report (see chart below).
Price gains slow, but affordability worsens. Price gains slowed in 2014 and we’ll see more of the same in 2015. In October 2014, prices increased 4% year-over-year, down from 10.6% in October 2013. The slowdown has been especially sharp in metros that had a severe housing bust followed by a big rebound. Now, prices nationwide are just 3% undervalued relative to fundamentals. That leaves fewer bargains and scant room for prices to rise without becoming overvalued. What’s more, with consumers expecting 2015 to be a better year to sell than 2014, more homes should come onto the market, cooling prices further. Nevertheless, despite slowing price gains, homebuying affordability will worsen in 2015 for two reasons. First, even these smaller price increases will almost surely outpace income growth. In 2013, incomes rose just 1.8% year-over-year in nominal terms, and a negligible 0.3% after adjusting for inflation. Second, the strengthening economy and the Fed’s response should push up mortgage rates.
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Here are our markets to watch, in alphabetical order: ★
Boston, MA
★
Dallas, TX
★
Fresno, CA
★
Middlesex County, MA
★
Nashville, TN
★
New York, NY-NJ
★
Raleigh, NC
★
Salt Lake City, UT
★
San Diego, CA
★
Seattle, WA
These markets are spread across the country: Boston, Middlesex County (just west of Boston), and New York in the Northeast; Dallas, Nashville, and Raleigh in the South (the Census considers Texas part of the South); and Fresno, Salt Lake City, San Diego, and Seattle in the West. No Midwestern metros make the list because they generally have slower job growth and higher vacancy rates than other markets, even though many are quite affordable and prices are rebounding. In 2015, more markets will settle back into their long-term housing patterns. Fast-growing markets that boomed last decade, collapsed in the bust, and then rebounded are now leveling off. Even the markets that have been slowest to recover and have struggled longest are seeing foreclosure inventories decline and the sales mix moving back toward normal. At the same time, first-time homeownership, single-family starts, and new home sales won’t come close to fully recovering in 2015. But if 2015 brings strong job growth, big income gains, and the long-awaited jump in household formation, then 2016 could be the year when we see a major turnaround in homeownership and singlefamily construction.
Finally, Where Is the Key? Homeownership Within the Middle Class and Millennials Despite high household incomes, San Francisco is the least affordable metro, with just 15% of homes within reach of the middle class. Affordability has deteriorated over the past year in Austin and Miami. The most affordable markets are near the Great Lakes.
within reach of a middle-class household. Our standard is whether the total monthly payment, including mortgage, insurance, and property taxes, is less than 31% of the metro area’s median household income. (See note below.) We define middle class separately for each metro based on the local median household income. Thus, what we consider affordable varies from market to market. For instance, in metro Atlanta, median household income is $55,000. Homes priced under $276,000 are affordable based on the 31% guideline. On November 7, 2014, 71% of the homes for sale in Atlanta were listed for less than $276,000. That means that more than two-thirds of metro Atlanta homes are within reach of the middle class.
Austin and Miami Join California Markets on the Least Affordable List The five most affordable markets are in Ohio, Indiana, and upstate New York. In those markets, more than 80% of homes for sale are within reach of the middle class. The South is relatively affordable too, with Birmingham, AL and Columbia, SC among the 10 most affordable markets.
Toledo, Ohio
Where can the middle class bear the cost of buying a home? In the past year, affordability has fallen modestly, hurt by rising home prices, but helped by lower mortgage rates. Nationally, 59% of homes for sale are within reach of the middle class, compared with 62% last October. Nonetheless, the big picture is that prices still look undervalued compared with fundamentals and historically low mortgage rates make buying much cheaper than renting. Still, affordability is a growing problem. We measure affordability as the share of homes for sale on Trulia ACCESSLASVEGAS
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Six of the seven least affordable markets are in California. A middle-class household can afford just 15% of homes for sale in San Francisco and 22% in Los Angeles. In New York, only 25% of homes for sale are within reach. Joining the least affordable list for the first time are Austin and Miami. In Austin, just 40% of homes for sale are within reach of the middle class, down from 50% last fall. Miami has seen a similar drop in affordability. In total, in 20 of the 100 largest metros, middle-class households can afford fewer than 50% of homes. Surprisingly, high-income metros are generally less, not more, affordable. Housing prices tend to be so high in metros with high incomes that affordability ends up being worse than in low-income metros. Why? Highincome households bid up home prices, and high prices push out lower-income households. In addition, higherincome metros tend to have less new construction than lower-income metros do. As a result, high-income metros such as San Francisco and San Jose are among the least affordable, even after taking income into account. Bucking the trend are Washington, DC and the Bethesda metro next door, where incomes are high and more than 60% of homes are within reach of the middle class.
The Least Affordable Parts of the Least Affordable Metros Of course, affordability varies within metros. To dig deeper in the least affordable metros, we zoom down one level to look at sub-markets -- individual counties or, for enormous counties like Los Angeles, the territories covered by telephone area codes. For example, although metro San Francisco is less affordable than metro New York, the borough of Manhattan is less affordable than the city of San Francisco (see note). In fact, Brooklyn and the San Gabriel Valley (east of downtown Los Angeles) are as unaffordable as the city of San Francisco. So the next time someone says “Oakland is the new Brooklyn,” remind them that housing costs in Brooklyn actually rival those of San Francisco, not Oakland. In Alameda County, which includes Oakland, 32% of homes are within reach of the middle class -similar to Queens (33%), not Brooklyn (12%).
people well. But they also are such expensive markets that even well-paid young people must double up to be able to live there. Many find themselves priced out entirely. Even with those highincome millennials, San Francisco and New York are respectively the least and tenth-least affordable markets for millennials. For both millennials and the middle class generally, affordability is worsening. Annual home-price gains have slowed to 6.4% and will probably continue to ease. But that’s still a faster pace than gains in median income, which is rising at roughly the rate of inflation (1.5% in 2013). Plus, mortgage rates are likely to rise from their current low levels. Unless incomes increase substantially, homeownership will slip further beyond the reach of many households.
Just Under Half of Homes are Within Reach of Millennials For younger adults, affordability is yet a bigger challenge. Households headed by millennials -- people younger than 35 -- are at the age when people begin to think about buying a home. But their incomes are lower than those of older households. To explore affordability for this group, we use metro median income for millennial-headed households. Nationwide, just 49% of for-sale homes are within reach of the median-income millennial household, compared with 59% for the median household regardless of age. In 45 of the 100 largest metros, the majority of homes for sale are beyond the reach of the typical millennial household. Those metros include not only expensive coastal markets such as Los Angeles and Honolulu, but also such places as Newark, Tucson, and Tacoma, WA. Austin and Oakland are among the 10 least affordable housing markets for millennials. One surprise in this analysis: In two of the 100 largest metros -- San Francisco and New York -- the median income for millennial households is actually higher than median income for all households. Those markets have industries that often pay younger ACCESSLASVEGAS
NOTE: Trulia measures affordability as the share of homes for sale on their website on November 7, 2014, within reach of a middle-class household. Trulia’s standard is whether the total monthly payment, including mortgage, insurance, and property taxes, is less than 31% of the metro area’s median household income. Trulia defines middle class separately for each metro based on the local median household income. The total monthly cost includes the mortgage payment assuming a 4.2% 30-year fixed rate mortgage (versus 4.5% in the October 2013 calculation) with 20% down, property taxes based on average metro property tax rate, and insurance. Trulia chose 31% of income as the affordability cutoff to be consistent with government guidelines for affordability. Both the Federal Housing Administration and the Home Affordable Modification Program use 31% of pre-tax income going toward monthly housing payments for assessing whether a home is within reach for a borrower. Median household income is calculated from the 2013 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) using the 2009 metropolitan area definitions. Metro areas and divisions comprise one or more counties. In our sub-market analysis, we used counties or, in metros with very large counties like Los Angeles, the geographic footprints of telephone area codes. Millennial households are those where the “reference person” (the head of household) is less than 35 years old. Household incomes are rounded to the nearest $1000. Square footage is rounded to the nearest 50.
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Perspectives on the Future of Multifamily Housing Written By Kevin Kelly, National Association of Home Builders’ 2014 Chairman of the Board Although the single-family housing recovery has been slow, the multifamily sector continues to be red hot. Single-family construction has yet to pass the halfway mark back to normal but by mid-2014 multifamily building had surpassed the long term trend of 340,000 units a year established in the 1990s and the first half of the 2000s. Apartments are hot because of two driving trends: demographics and finance. Demographics drive housing demand; more people mean more households, and that means more homes. Current demographic trends are heavy with the age group most likely to change from dependent living, e.g., living with parents, to independent living, e.g., renting or owning a home. Members of the Millennial Generation (also known as Echo Boomers) are in the prime household formation ages, and there are more of them than the baby boomer generation. But two things differentiate the echo boomers from the baby boom generation. First, the echo boomers are forming households at about half the expected rate. Second, those who do go out on their own are overwhelmingly choosing renting over buying. As a result, the ranks of renters have swelled by 2.3 million since 2011, or almost 800,000 per year. Rental completions are running at less than half that rate, which has driven down vacancy rates from double digits to less than 8 percent, and real rents are rising about 1 percentage point faster per year than all other prices. This is also driving multifamily production because mortgage lenders tightened their underwriting standards significantly in the wake of the recession. As a result, large numbers of potential first time home buyers cannot qualify for a mortgage and have turned to renting. Historically, about 40% of existing homes are sold to first time home buyers, mostly between the ages of 25 and 34, and about 30% of new homes are sold to first time buyers. Those percentages are down to 30 and 16%, respectively, meaning a loss of at least 800,000 home sales in 2014. The tighter underwriting standards affect younger buyers because their credit has not been well established. They are also more likely to have student debt, and they entered the job market either during the recession or the subsequent slow recovery. Young buyers suffer the double whammy of lower starting incomes leading to little or no savings at the same time mortgage qualification standards are ratcheting up. Congress and regulators have overreacted to the financial collapse by denying credit to potential home buyers with good, but not perfect, credit. Younger adults just starting out are the most affected by the mortgage credit pendulum swinging from too loose to too tight. An added demographic trend that is difficult to separate from the financial and economic environment is that younger adults prefer urban living. The surge in apartment construction has been particularly strong in large metropolitan areas. As a result, the top 25 metropolitan areas increased their share of US multifamily construction from 42% in 2009 to 60% in 2013; the larger the metro area, the greater the gain. As the home building industry catches up to the new and higher level of demand, the speed of growth should decrease and multifamily construction should level off at 370,000 to 380,000 per year. That level of activity is sustainable for at least the next two to three years. Beyond that three-year time horizon, rental demand will cool a bit and sustainable production levels will be in the 350,000 to 360,000 range as Millennials get their financial feet on the ground, more rational underwriting standards return to the system, and the older members of the generation return to more normal levels of marriage and child rearing.
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Statistical Recap Vacancy and Rental Rate Trends (2011 through 2014 including 12 Month Forecast for 2015)
Las Vegas Metro Occupancy Results December 2013 through November 2014
90.50% 90.53% 90.73%
January 2014 March May July
91.72% 92.04% 92.11% 92.33% 92.27% 92.75% 92.48%
September
92.25% 92.00%
November
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
2014 Month Occupancy Average: 91.93% Source: Spencer Ballif and Jeff Swinger of CB Richard Ellis (Las Vegas) (121,561 Apartments Surveyed in October 2014)
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Las Vegas Multifamily Access Q3 2014 Multifamily Sales Summary for Las Vegas Source: ApartmentUpdate.com VACANCY & RENT
PERMITS & CONSTRUCTION
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
VACANCY & RENT COMPARISON
Q3 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Education and health services growth buoyed Las Vegas employment during the last six months. Companies in the sector created 3,800 jobs, for a 4.7% increase since March. Hiring was also robust in the financial activities and construction industries, as both sectors expanded 2.4% with a combined 2,100 new employees. Metrowide payrolls grew 0.6% with 5,600 additional workers since March. The six-month rise followed the 2.1% expansion in the preceding six months as 17,800 jobs were created. The steady job gains in the last year reduced unemployment 110 basis points to 7.6% in September. The decrease extended a 160-basis-point plunge in the rate in the preceding year. The median existing single-family home price was $193,000 at the end of the third quarter, up 6.6% from one year prior. While values increased, sales velocity decreased 12.1% with 55,300 annualized transactions in September. Despite a negative absorption of 260 units in the last three months, leasing activity remained positive with 3,040 newly occupied apartments year to date. Demand was greatest in the Henderson/Southeast area, the only submarket with deliveries during the third quarter. Las Vegas inventory expanded with 190 new apartments in the third quarter, all of which were in the Henderson/Southeast Submarket. Five projects are under construction with 1,310 units scheduled to come online in the next two years. Developers filed permits for 1,790 multifamily units since the start of 2014. Submissions year to date surpassed the 1,510 units requested in all of 2013. With homes sales velocity dipping, single-family submissions decreased 8.6% from one year ago with 6,810 annualized requests in September. Negative absorption resulted in vacancy rising 20 basis points to 6.9% in the third quarter. Even with the latest uptick, the rate was 100 basis points less than 12 months prior. Average asking rent increased 0.5% since June to $835 per month in September. Rents were 2.1% more than one year ago. In that time, Henderson/Southeast rents advanced 3.2% to a metro-leading $975 per month. ACCESSLASVEGAS
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NEWSLETTER HIGHLIGHTS Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015: Multifamily’s Great Debate To Buy or Not To Buy? Marketing Trends Coming to Multifamily in 2015 SPECIAL HOUSING REPORT: Consumers Upbeat, but Recovery Faces a Tricky Handoff in 2015
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