country at $12 billion of CAPEX to be invested in FTTH based on possible demand today. Water and sanitation: The model used for estimating investment needs is based on three scenarios described in table A3.1. The inputs to the model are population statistics (urban, rural and national population and population growth rates); population distributions across urban and rural areas, current access (access to water and sanitation by technology and location); and water unit costs (unit cost per capita of each water supply technology at various densities). The outputs of the model are capital costs (costs of service expansion to serve the additional people that need to be covered by improved water supply and sanitation by 2025 in order to achieve SDG targets); rehabilitation costs (costs of maintaining new and existing access); and O&M costs (costs of rehabilitating existing access). The base scenario was used to generate the investment needs figures with universal access as the access target for year 2025. Revision of the estimates Using the above foregoing methodologies, total investment needs is estimated at $100 billion a year over 2016–25. But the estimate of the power sector investment data is under revision using a new model (called BALMOREL) that takes into account the current access rates, population density, poverty, and investment climates for each country to determine the pace and relative importance of grid, mini-grid and off-grid connections. We believe that Africa power investment needs will be in the range of $35–$50 billion a year (actual calculation based on 12 countries gives $7 billion). Road sector data are also under revision and may be estimated at $15–$20 billion. ICT data will be revised with a slight change at $4–$7 billion and water and sanitation at $56– $66 billion. The remaining transport subsectors (air, rail, and port) should account between $20– $27 billion (according to our rough estimates). In total, investment needs should range between $130–$170 billion. TABLE A3.1 Three high-end scenarios Pragmatic scenario Scenario Urban Base scenario Stand posts 2015 distribution across modalities is preserved Safe boreholes If 2025 rural density < 50 people/km2, 2015 modality distribution is preserved. Otherwise: piped water: if 2015 coverage < 10%, 2025 coverage increases to 10%; if 10% ≤ 2015 coverage < 20%, 2025 coverage increases to 20%; otherwise 2025 coverage is the same as in 2015; standposts: if 2015 coverage < 10%, 2025 coverage increases to 20%; if 10% ≤ 2015 coverage < 30%, 2025 coverage increases to 30%; if 2015 coverage ≥ 30%, 2025 coverage increases to 60%; the remaining additional customers are served by boreholes VIP latrines At least 5% of sewer coverage in all countries. In addition: in LIC countries, septic tanks coverage same as 2015. All the remaining additional customers served by VIP; in non-LIC countries VIP latrines coverage same as 2015, remaining additional customers all to be covered by septic tanks Water Rural Urban 2015 distribution across modalities is preserved Sanitation Rural A frica’ s infrastructure High-end scenario Piped water: if 2015 coverage < 20%, 2025 coverage increases to 30%; if 20% ≤ 2015 coverage < 40%, 2025 coverage increases to 50%; if 40% ≤ 2015 coverage < 70%, 2025 coverage increases to 70%; if 40% ≤ 2015 coverage < 70%, and selected target coverage < 70%, 2025 coverage increases to selected target coverage (universal or HG); the remaining additional customers are served by stand posts Traditional latrines In all countries: sewer coverage same as in 2015; septic tanks coverage to be increased to 5% if currently < 5%, otherwise same as in 2015; VIP latrine coverage to be increased to 30% if currently < 30%, otherwise same as in 2015; all the remaining additional customers to be served by traditional latrines 91