HUMAN PERFORMANCE MODELING
FOR MARITIME DESIGN AND OPERATIONS
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HUMAN PERFORMANCE MODELING
CONTENTS Introduction.........................................................................................................3 What Human Performance Models Do.....................................................4 What an HPM Output Looks Like...............................................................5 How Other Industries Use HPMs.................................................................6 Why Maritime Needs HPMs Now................................................................8 The Cost of Getting It Wrong...................................................................... 11 What Maritime Already Has......................................................................... 11 A Path Forward................................................................................................ 12 Conclusion.......................................................................................................... 13 References.......................................................................................................... 15
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INTRODUCTION Alarms sound. Conditions change. Decisions must be made in seconds. Whether on a manned bridge or in a remote operations center, human performance remains one of the most important factors in maritime safety. As the industry adopts new technologies, design questions are becoming more difficult: How quickly can an operator respond? How small can a bridge team be without increasing risk? How many autonomous vessels can one remote operator safely supervise before workload becomes a liability? These are not hypothetical questions. They are design decisions that shipbuilders, operators and Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) developers are making right now. Today, most of these decisions are informed by expert judgment, ergonomic checklists or simulator trials. These methods are valuable, but they share a common limitation: they typically occur after major design commitments have already been made, or after systems are already in operation. By that point, fixing a human performance problem means costly rework, schedule delays or operational workarounds. Maritime does not need to invent human performance modeling (HPM). It needs to operationalize proven HPM methods for defined maritime use cases such as bridge staffing, remote operations, automation oversight and human-machine interface design, using a framework that is credible, practical and proportionate to risk. This challenge is not unique to maritime. Other high-reliability industries faced the same challenge
Human performance models are simulations that predict how people will perform in complex systems before those systems are built.
decades ago and have developed a solution: human performance models. HPMs are simulations that predict how people will perform in complex systems before those systems are built. The defense, aerospace and nuclear industries use HPMs to evaluate crew sizing, workload, function allocation and automation interaction as part of the design process. These models have changed design requirements, prevented costly rework and improved safety. Historically, the human element in system design has been assessed through qualitative data, subjective feedback and observation. While these methods provide useful insight, they can be difficult to quantify, difficult to repeat and difficult to defend when making the case for design changes. HPMs fill that gap by providing measurable, repeatable, scenario-specific predictions of human performance that decision-makers can act on.
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HUMAN PERFORMANCE MODELING
WHAT HUMAN PERFORMANCE MODELS DO
One widely used approach for predicting workload
HPM encompasses a range of analytical and
helps identify when multiple tasks compete for the
computational methods used to represent, predict
same human processing channel at the same time,
and evaluate how people perform tasks and interact
increasing the likelihood of overload [Zhang et
with systems [Card et al., 1986]. Approaches range
al., 2024]. This multi-channel approach reflects an
from task-based analyses to sophisticated computer
important operational reality: two tasks may each
simulations, allowing organizations to assess the
be manageable on their own but become difficult to
impact of staffing [Sebok & Plott, 2010], automation
sustain when performed together if they rely on the
[Huey et al., 1990], interface design and operational
same processing resources.
concepts before implementation. By modeling human tasks, decisions, workload and interactions, HPM provides quantitative measures and actionable insights into system performance, safety and mission effectiveness.
is the VACP method, which assesses visual, auditory, cognitive and psychomotor demands. The method
CHALLENGES THAT HPMS CAN ADDRESS INCLUDE: • Task conflicts and delays: When competing demands require an operator’s attention simultaneously, this may potentially cause delays,
HPMS CAN BE USED TO PREDICT AND EVALUATE: • Task timing: How long it takes a crew to complete
omissions or degraded performance [Wickens, 1991]. • Staffing sufficiency: Whether available personnel
a procedure or respond to an event and how
can safely and effectively accomplish required
performance changes under different operating
functions across a range of scenarios.
conditions. • Workload: The cognitive, visual, auditory and
• Situational awareness support: How well displays, alerts and information architectures support
physical demands placed on operators, identifying
operators in perceiving, understanding and
when workload approaches or exceeds sustainable
anticipating system states.
levels.
• Error-likely conditions: Where mistakes, delays or missed actions are most likely to occur, and the operational factors that contribute to those risks. By quantifying the human element, HPM enables decision-makers to evaluate operational concepts, optimize staffing, assess emerging technologies and identify performance risks long before they appear in the real world. HPMs are strongest for structured, procedural and repeatable activities, and their outputs are generally more reliable for comparing design alternatives than for predicting absolute real-world performance. Subject matter expert input and workload ratings introduce subjectivity, which should be managed through structured elicitation methods and sensitivity analysis. HPM results should support, not replace, simulator trials, operational validation and expert review. Model validity is also scenario-specific; a model validated for one operational context should not be assumed valid for another without additional review. These characteristics make HPMs a powerful decision-support tool, but only as one component of a broader human factors engineering process.
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Setting appropriate expectations is essential. HPM is not a replacement for human factors engineering, which encompasses methods such as task analysis, ergonomic assessment and user-centered design. It is not a substitute for simulator validation, which provides empirical data from real operators. It is also not a universal predictor of human error, particularly for knowledge-based and diagnostic tasks. Recognizing these boundaries is essential to using HPMs effectively and credibly.
WHAT AN HPM OUTPUT LOOKS LIKE HPMs produce quantitative data that can be compared across alternative designs, staffing concepts, procedures, or levels of automation. Depending on the modeling approach, outputs may include task timelines, workload profiles, staffing utilization, task delays, performance variability and mission outcomes [Wickens et al., 2007]. The goal is not to treat illustrative values as precise predictions, but to compare concepts consistently across repeated simulations. For example, consider a simplified bridge crew workload analysis during a port approach scenario.
METRIC
4-PERSON CREW
3-PERSON CREW
DIFFERENCE
18.4
27.6
50%
Tasks delayed per scenario
0.3
4.7
1,467%
Tasks dropped per scenario
0.0
1.2
—
8%
61%
53%
62.4 minutes
68.9 minutes
Standard deviation 4.1
Standard deviation 7.3
Mean peak workload for officer of the watch (OOW)
Runs where OOW exceeded overload threshold Scenario completion time
10%
Crew Comparison (100 simulation runs per variant) Values are illustrative and provided for demonstration purposes.
Even in this simplified example, reducing bridge
When interpreting workload outputs, it is useful to
staffing increases operator workload, delays task
distinguish between workload amount and workload
execution, raises the likelihood of overload and
intensity. The workload amount reflects the total
lengthens scenario completion time. Rather than
demand for a set of tasks. Workload intensity reflects
relying on assumptions or subjective assessments, HPM
that demand relative to the time available to complete
provides quantitative evidence that allows stakeholders
it. The same total workload spread across a full watch
to evaluate tradeoffs and identify performance risks
presents a very different challenge than the same
before implementation.
workload compressed into a ten-minute port approach
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HUMAN PERFORMANCE MODELING
by showing how demand concentrates or spreads
DEFENSE: CREW SIZING AND FUNCTION ALLOCATION
across the operational timeline, making it possible to
The United States (U.S.) Department of Defense has
phase. HPM workload timelines capture this distinction
identify not just whether workload is high, but when and for how long. This ability to compare alternatives in a repeatable, data-driven manner is one of the primary strengths of HPM. It enables organizations to assess concepts, procedures, staffing models and system designs before hardware is built; software is deployed, or operators enter a simulator.
incorporated HPMs into the MANPRINT (Manpower and Personnel Integration) process for decades [Booher & Hewitt, 1990]. These models are routinely used to assess crew sizing, workload, function allocation, training requirements and automation concepts during system acquisition. In one widely cited example, task-network modeling was used to evaluate two- and three-soldier crew concepts for a mounted combat platform. The analysis
HOW OTHER INDUSTRIES USE HPMS HPM is not an emerging or experimental practice. For decades, defense, aerospace and nuclear power industries have used HPMs to inform decisions involving staffing, automation, operator interfaces and system design. In many cases, these models have
predicted unacceptable workload levels for the twoperson crew across much of the mission profile. Based in part on these findings, the Army adopted a threeperson crew requirement for the system [Mitchell et al., 2003]. This demonstrates how HPMs can inform major design decisions before systems are operationalized.
influenced requirements, reduced development risk
The Army Research Lab has also used HPM to address
and provided quantitative evidence before costly
reduced manning issues for naval ship operations
prototypes or operational testing were conducted.
[Archer et al., 1996]. Similar approaches have been applied extensively to unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operations, where HPMs are used to determine how many systems a single operator can supervise and to identify the workload conditions that lead to degraded performance [Humann & Spero, 2018]. These challenges closely resemble those emerging in maritime remote operations centers and autonomous vessel supervision. The principal takeaway for maritime stakeholders is that the underlying human performance challenges associated with reduced crew sizes, remote operations and multi-vessel oversight have already been addressed in the defense sector. Mature methods, assessment frameworks and validation processes are available and can be leveraged immediately. The opportunity is not to reinvent these approaches, but to tailor them to the unique operational demands, mission profiles and workforce configurations of the maritime domain.
AEROSPACE: DISPLAY DESIGN AND SITUATIONAL AWARENESS National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) developed integrated HPM environments that combine task modeling, cognitive architecture and 3D visualization to evaluate crew station designs before building physical prototypes [Gore, 2011]. These
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tools simulate how operators scan displays, allocate
Attention-based HPM methods can augment current
attention, manage workload, maintain situational
practices and offer a way to compare alternative
awareness and make errors.
layouts quantitatively before hardware is committed.
A key capability is the modeling of attention
NUCLEAR: VALIDATION AND REGULATORY INTEGRATION
allocation by predicting where operators will look and what information they will notice based on measurable display properties (salience, effort to shift gaze) and task characteristics (information update frequency, task importance) [Santiago-Espada et al., 2011]. This allows designers to compare alternative display layouts and alarm configurations based on predicted operator awareness, not just compliance with ergonomic guidelines. By predicting where operators focus their attention and how quickly they recognize critical information, aerospace HPMs allow designers to compare display concepts before constructing physical prototypes. This reduces development costs while improving situational awareness and operator effectiveness. For maritime, this means HPMs can evaluate not only staffing levels, but also whether bridge displays, alarm configurations and MASS remote operations center interfaces actually support operator awareness under realistic conditions. Display design decisions currently rely on ergonomic guidelines and expert review.
The nuclear industry provides perhaps the most relevant example for maritime adoption. Recognizing the growing use of HPMs in staffing and human reliability analyses, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) developed formal guidance governing model verification, validation and application [O’Hara, 2009]. Nuclear experience demonstrated that HPMs can reliably predict procedural and rule-based activities when properly validated against empirical data. Equally important, it highlighted where models are less effective, particularly for complex diagnostic and judgment-intensive tasks. This balanced understanding of both capabilities and limitations has enabled HPMs to be used as a decision-support tool rather than a replacement for human testing. The NRC’s verification and validation framework provides a proven template that could be adapted for maritime applications.
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HUMAN PERFORMANCE MODELING
Across defense, aerospace and nuclear power, HPMs have matured from research tools into practical
WHY MARITIME NEEDS HPMS NOW
engineering tools. These industries use HPMs to
Maritime automation is not just adding new equipment
evaluate staffing levels, assess automation concepts,
to the bridge; rather, it is fundamentally changing
optimize operator interfaces and identify performance
the role of the human operator. As vessels become
risks long before systems reach operational testing.
increasingly automated, operators are shifting from
The challenges now emerging in maritime operations
direct control to supervisory oversight, where they
include reduced crewing, increasing automation
must monitor automated systems, maintain situational
and remote vessel supervision. These challenges are
awareness, detect anomalies and intervene when
the types of opportunities HPMs were developed to
automation reaches its limits.
address. This transition introduces well-known human factors For maritime, the nuclear lesson is less about the
challenges, including automation complacency,
modeling tool and more about credibility: HPM
reduced situational awareness, skill degradation,
adoption requires explicit verification, validation and
automation surprise and vigilance loss during extended
defined limits of use. Without a structured verification
monitoring periods. These risks emerge from the
and validation (V&V) process, HPM outputs are difficult
interaction between human operators and complex
to defend in design reviews, regulatory submissions
systems and cannot be adequately assessed through
or safety cases. Establishing a maritime-specific V&V
checklists or expert opinion alone. They require a
framework is a prerequisite for HPMs to be accepted as
systematic approach that predicts how people will
engineering evidence.
perform under realistic operational conditions.
Taken together, these examples show that HPMs are
These drivers also intersect with the maritime industry’s
not speculative tools. They are established engineering
primary operational governance framework: the Safety
methods whose relevance increases when systems
Management System (SMS). The International Safety
become more automated, staffing becomes leaner and
Management (ISM) Code requires maritime companies
assurance expectations become more demanding.
to establish an SMS covering hazard identification,
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risk assessment, safe operating procedures, adequate
Answering these questions also requires defining
manning, emergency preparedness and continuous
what “acceptable” performance looks like for each
improvement. HPMs can strengthen these processes
situation. Research across multiple industries has
by providing scenario-specific workload predictions,
shown that there is no single workload threshold above
supporting procedure evaluations and helping identify
which all operators fail and below which all operators
human performance risks before incidents occur.
succeed. Human operators adapt their strategies,
Framing HPMs as strengthening existing SMS processes, rather than creating new ones, may be the most practical path to adoption.
THE QUESTIONS ARE GETTING HARDER The design and operational questions facing the maritime industry are becoming more complex: • How many vessels can a remote operator supervise? The answer depends on traffic density, automation reliability, alarm frequency, communication delays and human cognitive limits. • Can bridge crews be reduced without increasing risk? The answer depends on task demands, timing, workload distribution and the crew’s ability to manage concurrent activities. • Will a new bridge display improve
reprioritize tasks and adjust their approach to maintain performance across a range of workload conditions, until the limits of their flexibility are reached, and performance degrades sharply. This means that workload limits should be set based on the criticality of the task being evaluated. A safety-critical function such as collision avoidance demands a more conservative threshold than a routine administrative task. HPMs support this approach by allowing analysts to apply different performance criteria to different parts of the operational scenario and evaluate the consequences quantitatively. These questions cannot be answered reliably through intuition alone; they require structured evidence generated through established methods. HPMs provide a means to generate evidence early in the design process, when changes remain practical and affordable.
performance? The answer depends on how effectively operators can locate, interpret and act on critical information. • Can an operator regain situational awareness quickly enough during a takeover from an autonomous system? The answer depends on how information is presented, the complexity of the situation and the time available to respond.
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HUMAN PERFORMANCE MODELING
THE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT IS EVOLVING Emerging frameworks for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) increasingly emphasize the ability of human operators, whether aboard the vessel or ashore, to maintain situational awareness, respond effectively and assume control when required [IMO, 2026]. The challenge is not recognizing the importance of the human element; it is demonstrating that human performance requirements have been met. HPM offers a structured, repeatable and defensible method for generating evidence and evaluating alternative designs before entering service. Organizations that can support design and operational decisions with quantitative human performance data will be better positioned than those relying solely on qualitative assessments and expert judgment. As assurance frameworks develop, stakeholders may increasingly need to demonstrate not just that a system functions technically, but that operators can monitor it, understand it and intervene effectively under realistic conditions. Specifically, emerging evidence expectations may include demonstrations of takeover capability within defined time windows, workload acceptability across the range of credible operating conditions, situational awareness support under degraded or high-traffic scenarios, staffing sufficiency during abnormal and emergency conditions and alarm management performance under realistic alarm loads. HPMs provide a structured method for generating this evidence across far more scenarios and conditions than simulator trials alone can practically cover. Organizations that establish HPM capabilities now will be better positioned to meet these expectations as regulatory and classification frameworks mature.
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THE COST OF GETTING IT WRONG Human-system integration problems are among the
As maritime systems become more automated, more
most expensive and disruptive deficiencies to correct
connected and more dependent on human oversight,
after deployment. A bridge layout issue discovered
the ability to predict human performance before
during sea trials, a manning concept that proves
implementation will become increasingly valuable. HPM
unsustainable in operation or an automation design
provides a practical way to make those predictions and
that creates unexpected operator workload can
reduce risk before it reaches the bridge, the operations
require costly redesigns, retraining and operational
center or the fleet.
workarounds. HPMs allow these risks to be identified when they are still inexpensive to address. Modifying a task model or evaluating an alternative staffing concept during design takes days. Redesigning hardware, procedures or operational concepts after deployment can take months and cost millions.
WHAT MARITIME ALREADY HAS The maritime industry is not starting from zero. Rather,
• Transferable methods from other industries: Task-
many of the building blocks needed to support HPM
network models, workload prediction methods,
already exist across industry guidance, research
cognitive architectures and attention-allocation
programs and operational practice.
models have been successfully applied in defense, aerospace and naval operations and are readily
• Human-centered design guidance: Frameworks such
adaptable to commercial maritime applications.
as the ABS Guidance Notes on Ergonomic Design of Navigation Bridges provide established principles
These efforts demonstrate that the underlying
for function allocation, workload management,
concepts, methods and tools are already available.
situational awareness and bridge design.
However, what remains absent is a cohesive framework
• Maritime human factors research: European initiatives including CASCADe, CyClaDes and FAROS
that integrates them into a practical maritime methodology.
have explored cognitive modeling, crew-centered
Maritime lacks a common approach for selecting
design, human reliability and the human implications
modeling methods, establishing model credibility,
of increasing automation.
validating predictions, defining acceptable use cases,
• MASS-focused studies: Academic and industry research continues to advance understanding of seafarer workload, cognitive demands, remote operations and human-system interaction in MASS concepts. • Modeling tools and prototypes: Open-source tools such as SimManning have demonstrated the feasibility of applying discrete-event simulation and other modeling methods to maritime manning and workload assessments.
incorporating HPM results into design reviews and decision-making. Establishing that framework would allow the industry to move beyond isolated studies and toward the systematic use of HPMs as an engineering and assurance tool. Such a framework would not require inventing new modeling techniques. Rather, it would adapt proven practices from defense, aerospace and nuclear power to the unique operational, regulatory and safety challenges of the maritime domain.
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HUMAN PERFORMANCE MODELING
A PATH FORWARD
Priority applications include:
A phased approach is recommended to integrate
• Manning and staffing analysis
HPM into maritime design and operations. While the
• MASS remote operations center design
industry already possesses many of the technical building blocks, broader adoption will require common
• Bridge and control room display evaluation
practices, shared resources and a clear understanding
• Function allocation between humans and automation
of where HPMs can provide the greatest value. As
• Procedure development and assessment
the industry moves toward adoption, HPMs should be integrated into existing safety management processes rather than treated as a standalone method. Organizations can begin by mapping HPM outputs to specific SMS processes: workload and error-likelihood data into risk assessments, task timing into procedure evaluations and performance risk identification into
• Human reliability analysis • Integrated system validation
2. ESTABLISH A VERIFICATION AND VALIDATION FRAMEWORK For HPM outputs to be trusted and used in design,
continuous improvement cycles.
operations and decision-making, the industry will
1. ADOPT HPMS AS A DESIGN-SUPPORT METHOD
validation. Experience from defense, aerospace and
HPMs should be used as a quantitative complement to established human factors engineering practices. Rather than replacing task analysis, ergonomic assessments, or simulator testing, HPMs extend these methods by providing predictive insights early in the design process.
need a structured approach to model verification and nuclear power demonstrates that model credibility depends on clearly defining a model’s intended use, verifying that it has been correctly implemented and validating its predictions against empirical data where appropriate. Developing maritime-specific guidance for HPM verification and validation will be an important step toward broader adoption and acceptance.
3. DEVELOP MARITIME-SPECIFIC RESOURCES Broader adoption will require a common set of maritime resources that support model development, calibration and validation, including: • Task libraries: Standardized representations of bridge, engine room, cargo and remote operations tasks • Scenario templates: Representative operational scenarios that enable consistent and repeatable analyses • Referent databases: Collections of workload, timing, performance and human reliability data that support model calibration and validation These shared resources would reduce development effort, improve consistency and increase confidence in model results across the industry.
4. APPLY HPMS TO MASS ASSURANCE Evidence from HPMs can help demonstrate that human operators, whether aboard ships or ashore, can maintain situational awareness, manage workload and execute effective intervention when required.
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HPMs can provide quantitative evidence supporting the
design human-centered systems, assess automation
design and evaluation of remote operations centers,
strategies and identify performance risks long before
takeover procedures, alarm management concepts,
they appear in sea trials or operational service. Not all
staffing levels and human-automation interfaces across
HPM applications are equally mature or equally ready
a range of operating conditions.
for maritime adoption. A tiered approach can help organizations prioritize:
CONCLUSION HPM is not a new technology. It is a mature and proven methodology that has been used for decades in defense, aerospace and nuclear power to evaluate human-system performance, reduce design risk and support critical engineering decisions. Today, the maritime industry faces many of the same challenges that drove HPM adoption in those sectors: increasing automation, evolving operator roles, reduced manning and growing expectations for demonstrating human-system performance before deployment. The modeling methods, tools and validation practices needed to address these challenges already exist. What has been missing is a maritime-specific framework that brings them together into a coherent and practical approach. The opportunity for applying HPM applications in the maritime industry is significant. HPMs can help maritime stakeholders evaluate staffing concepts,
NEAR-TERM, PRACTICAL STARTING POINTS: • Manning and staffing analysis • Bridge and control room workload evaluation • Procedure assessment under normal and emergency conditions
MEDIUM-TERM APPLICATIONS: • Interface and alarm management assessment • Remote operator workload distribution and multivessel supervision analysis
LONGER-TERM AND ADVANCED APPLICATIONS: • Situational awareness prediction using attentionbased models • Takeover readiness evaluation for complex autonomous operations • Knowledge-based decision modeling using cognitive architectures
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HUMAN PERFORMANCE MODELING
Starting with near-term applications allows the
This white paper represents a first step toward
industry to build experience, develop maritime-
establishing a maritime-specific framework. ABS
specific resources and establish credibility before
invites shipowners, operators, designers, technology
progressing to more complex modeling approaches.
developers, regulators, researchers and classification
By moving critical human factors questions earlier
societies to participate in building a maritime HPM
in the design process, HPMs can reduce uncertainty,
capability that is credible, practical and fit for purpose.
lower development costs and improve the safety and
The industry’s most important future decisions will
effectiveness of future maritime systems.
increasingly depend not only on what technology can
The maritime industry’s challenge is no longer recognizing that the human element matters. The challenge is evaluating it early enough, rigorously enough and consistently enough to influence design before risk becomes expensive to correct. HPM offers a practical way to do that.
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do, but on how people perform when working with it. HPM provides a means to evaluate that interaction before those decisions become costly to change.
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for the mounted combat system (MCS) and other future combat system platforms. Army Research Laboratory, Human Research & Engineering Directorate, Aberdeen Proving Ground. O’Hara, J.M. (2009). Applying Human Performance Models to Designing and Evaluating Nuclear Power Plants: Review Guidance and Technical Basis. Brookhaven National Laboratory / U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Santiago-Espada, Y., Myer, R. R., Latorella, K. A., & Comstock Jr, J. R. (2011). The multi-attribute task battery ii (matb-ii) software for human performance and workload research: A user’s guide (No. L-20031). Sebok, A., & Plott, B. (2010). Staffing levels: Methods for assessing requirements. In Simulator-based Human Factors Studies Across 25 Years: The History of the Halden ManMachine Laboratory (pp. 181-196). London: Springer London. Wickens, C.D. (1991). Processing Resources and Attention. In Damos, D. (Ed.), Multiple Task Performance. Taylor & Francis.
Quantitative modeling of human performance in complex,
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dynamic systems. National Academies Press.
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advanced flight deck displays. In Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting (Vol. 51, No. 12, pp. 794-798). Sage CA: Los Angeles, CA: Sage Publications. Zhang, Y., Wen, H., Dai, X., Liang, J., Xu, Z., Xue, K., & Yang, M. (2024). Research on modeling in operator mental workload based on VACP method. Quality and reliability engineering international, 40(1), 19-33.
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