May 2020
DUBLIN
Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.
COVID-19 IMPACTS Q1 DUBLIN RETAIL SPENDING
TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA)
Retail spending in the Dublin economy registered the first signs of COVID-19 restrictions, despite the overall 4.3% YoY (SA*) increase recorded in Q1 2020. Significant increases in spending on necessities offset sharp declines in discretionary spending, with the full impact of the health crisis set to hit the economy in Q2 2020. Growth in Dublin continued to exceed that at a National level in Q1 (+3.1% YoY), in line with the trend throughout 2019.
On a quarterly basis, consumer spending in Dublin grew by 0.8% QoQ in Q1 2020. This marks an acceleration following QoQ growth of 0.5% in Q4 2019. Nationally, quarterly growth remained steady (+0.8% QoQ) in Q1 following +0.9% QoQ in Q4 2019. On a headline basis, the Irish consumer appears to be in rude health, but the rise in Q1 was temporarily boosted by stockpiling of necessities, while the impact of widespread job and income losses will not be fully felt until Q2 2020.
Mirroring patterns seen internationally, spending on essentials at the end of Q1 contrasted sharply with declines in discretionary expenditure. Stockpiling Necessities and Household Goods ahead of restrictions helped offset the largest YoY contraction in Entertainment expenditure since 2014. Meanwhile, online sales have gained momentum, a trend that looks set to continue.
DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)
METHODOLOGY
A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.
DUBLIN
RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY
HUGE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN NECESSITY AND DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
DUBLIN
Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.
METHOD: ECOMMERCE
The most striking out-turn in the Q1 data was the divergence in necessity and discretionary spending. A sharp YoY decline was recorded in retail spending on discretionary goods in both Dublin (-5.1%) and Nationally (-4%), as shops closed, and travel restrictions were introduced in March 2020. In contrast, necessities spending increased sharply in both Dublin (+5.1%) and nationally (+4.4%). Household goods sales grew by 9.6% YoY in Dublin and 5.4% YoY nationally but spending on entertainment plummeted in both Dublin (-5.7%) and nationally (-5%). Online sales accelerated in both Dublin (+10.7% YoY) and nationally (+9.7% YoY) in Q1 2020 as the closure of physical shops saw customers move online.
RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES
DUBLIN
Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.
RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT
IRELAND DUBLIN
Grocery: all food and beverage stores.
IRELAND
IRELAND
US MARKET LEADS SLOWDOWN IN TOURISM SPENDING
Annual growth in tourism spend in Dublin slowed significantly in the first quarter of 2020, as travel restrictions were introduced, and Patrick’s Day celebrations cancelled. Spending by tourists registered YoY growth of 1%*. This follows growth of 6.1% and 2.9% in Q3 and Q4 respectively and double-digit growth in the year to Q2 2019.
The rate of YoY growth across important markets like the US and China had been declining in recent quarters, but growth turned sharply negative in Q1 2020. In the Chinese market, tourism spending registered -4% YoY growth, while the rate of growth in the US market collapsed to -14%, from a growth rate of +12.6% in Q4 2019. The UK market, in contrast, remained resilient, growing at 1.3% YoY compared to flat growth in Q4 2019.
A weaker picture emerges at a national level with tourist spending remaining flat YoY in Q1 2020 following a period of robust growth throughout 2019.
The UK market was the only market to register positive growth nationally in Q1 2020 at +0.7% YoY. Similar to the situation in Dublin, the US (-1.3%) and Chinese (-16.9%) markets both declined in the year to Q1 2020
These data provide the first glimpse of the sudden stop in tourism in Ireland at the end of Q1 2020, with the effects of COVID-19 likely to be even more damaging to retail and hospitality businesses during the usual peak summer months in Q2 and Q3 2020.
DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q1 2020 (SA)
-6.4%
CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
-4.0% YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN