Florida & Metro Forecast Fall 2021

Page 89

O cala

Short Term Outlook for Ocala, FL December 2021 Forecast 2021:Q4

2022:Q1

2022:Q2

2022:Q3

2022:Q4

2023:Q1

2023:Q2

2023:Q3

2023:Q4

2024:Q1

2024:Q2

2024:Q1

2024:Q2

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

16.2 5.0 5.6 10.6

16.3 -8.5 5.7 10.6

16.5 0.2 5.8 10.7

16.7 2.9 5.8 10.9

16.9 4.1 5.9 11.0

17.0 4.7 5.9 11.1

17.2 4.4 6.0 11.2

17.4 4.3 6.1 11.4

17.7 4.5 6.1 11.5

17.9 4.9 6.2 11.7

18.1 4.7 6.2 11.8

18.3 4.7 6.3 12.0

18.5 4.8 6.4 12.1

Real Personal Income (12$) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.3 0.3

15.2 -12.1

15.4 -2.8

15.5 0.6

15.6 2.2

15.7 2.8

15.8 2.5

15.9 2.4

16.0 2.7

16.1 2.9

16.2 2.7

16.3 2.6

16.4 2.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (12$)

41.7 39.2

41.6 39.0

42.1 39.2

42.5 39.5

42.8 39.5

42.9 39.5

43.3 39.6

43.7 39.8

44.1 40.0

44.4 40.1

44.8 40.2

45.2 40.3

45.6 40.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.7 3.5

51.1 3.5

51.2 1.7

51.4 1.3

51.7 1.8

51.9 1.6

52.2 1.9

52.5 2.0

52.9 2.4

53.3 2.7

53.8 3.2

54.3 3.6

54.8 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

109.9 2.1

110.6 2.3

112.2 3.9

113.0 4.2

113.6 3.3

114.0 3.0

114.9 2.4

115.3 2.0

115.5 1.7

115.5 1.4

115.4 0.5

115.4 0.1

115.4 0.0

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

10.3 5.1

10.3 4.7

10.5 6.5

10.5 3.5

10.5 2.6

10.6 2.2

10.6 0.5

10.5 0.2

10.5 -0.3

10.5 -1.0

10.4 -1.8

10.3 -2.3

10.2 -2.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

99.6 1.8

100.3 2.1

101.7 3.7

102.5 4.3

103.0 3.4

103.4 3.1

104.3 2.6

104.7 2.2

105.0 1.9

105.1 1.6

105.0 0.7

105.1 0.4

105.2 0.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

8.7 -0.6

8.7 -1.5

8.7 -0.3

8.7 -1.4

8.6 -1.5

8.5 -2.0

8.5 -2.5

8.4 -3.3

8.3 -3.3

8.3 -3.2

8.3 -2.5

8.2 -1.7

8.2 -1.0

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

27.4 0.8

27.2 0.0

27.3 1.4

27.3 1.1

27.0 -1.4

26.9 -1.1

27.3 -0.1

27.2 -0.6

27.2 0.6

26.9 0.1

26.4 -3.2

26.2 -3.7

26.0 -4.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.2 16.6 6.6

4.2 16.3 6.7

4.4 16.2 6.7

4.5 16.0 6.8

4.6 15.6 6.8

4.6 15.5 6.8

4.7 15.9 6.7

4.7 15.8 6.7

4.7 15.8 6.7

4.8 15.4 6.7

4.9 14.8 6.8

4.9 14.5 6.8

4.9 14.4 6.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

0.5 7.1

0.5 12.6

0.5 7.9

0.6 8.5

0.6 4.5

0.6 3.5

0.6 4.8

0.6 4.8

0.6 8.4

0.6 9.3

0.6 9.0

0.6 7.2

0.6 3.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

3.8 -1.2

3.9 2.2

4.0 8.0

4.1 8.7

4.1 8.2

4.2 7.7

4.2 5.2

4.2 3.5

4.3 3.6

4.3 2.9

4.4 3.7

4.4 3.7

4.4 3.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.9 -2.7

10.3 0.8

10.4 4.5

10.5 6.2

10.6 6.4

10.7 3.9

10.6 1.8

10.6 1.4

10.7 1.1

10.8 1.3

10.9 2.7

11.0 3.2

11.0 3.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.8 2.7

19.1 3.8

19.7 7.0

19.9 8.2

19.8 5.4

19.8 3.9

19.8 0.5

19.8 -0.2

19.9 0.7

20.1 1.6

20.4 3.0

20.6 3.9

20.7 4.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

13.0 13.2

12.9 9.6

13.1 4.9

13.2 4.6

14.0 7.7

14.2 10.1

14.8 13.3

15.2 14.9

15.3 9.2

15.2 6.8

15.2 2.5

15.1 -0.8

15.0 -1.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

3.1 11.5

3.2 12.2

3.3 15.8

3.5 17.7

3.5 15.1

3.5 12.0

3.5 6.2

3.6 2.5

3.6 2.0

3.6 2.4

3.7 3.9

3.7 4.7

3.8 5.1

0.8 -11.1

0.8 -5.1

0.8 -1.7

0.8 8.1

0.8 6.2

0.8 5.0

0.8 3.3

0.8 1.9

0.8 0.5

0.8 -0.3

0.8 -0.7

0.8 -1.0

0.8 -1.1

13.6 -2.5

13.7 -1.6

13.8 1.1

13.9 2.6

14.1 3.0

14.1 3.1

14.2 2.9

14.3 2.6

14.4 2.1

14.4 1.8

14.4 1.6

14.5 1.2

14.5 1.0

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

389.0 2.0

390.7 2.0

392.3 1.9

393.6 1.6

394.9 1.5

396.4 1.5

398.1 1.5

399.7 1.5

400.9 1.5

402.0 1.4

403.3 1.3

404.5 1.2

405.7 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

148.4 6.2

149.9 4.4

150.7 3.3

150.9 2.9

150.8 1.6

150.6 0.4

150.3 -0.2

150.4 -0.3

150.3 -0.3

150.0 -0.3

149.9 -0.3

149.8 -0.4

149.8 -0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.0

5.8

5.7

5.6

5.4

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.0

5.1

5.1

4.9

5268.4 5243.9 24.5

4716.2 4658.6 57.6

4349.2 4264.9 84.3

4065.6 3915.2 150.5

3906.4 3709.1 197.3

3732.3 3502.9 229.5

3553.8 3342.8 211.1

3504.6 3308.6 196.0

3469.9 3273.8 196.1

3383.3 3187.5 195.9

3323.7 3131.5 192.2

3313.1 3123.6 189.5

3271.2 3086.3 184.9

Institute for Economic Forecasting

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