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Maritime trade growth to slow down in coming years, UNCTAD predicts Annual growth in maritime trade between 2022 and 2026 will slow to 2.4%, compared to 2.9% over the past two decades, a new UNCTAD report predicts. The Review of Maritime Transport 2021 published in November examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on maritime trade volumes and how the shipping crisis is affecting economic recovery and threatening the delivery of critical vaccines and food supplies.
The COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on maritime trade volumes in 2020 was less severe than initially expected but its knock-on effects will be far-reaching and could transform maritime transport, according to UNCTAD. Contracted The report shows that maritime trade contracted by 3.8% in 2020, reflecting an initial shock, but it rebounded later in the year and is projected to increase by 4.3% in 2021, in tandem with the recovery in merchandise trade and world output. The medium-term outlook for maritime trade remains posi-
tive but subject to “mounting risks and uncertainties”. While acknowledging the nascent recovery, the report paints a picture of unprecedented pressures in global supply chains, dramatic spikes in freight rates, significant price rises on the horizon for consumers and importers and potential shifts in trade patterns due to trade tensions and in the quest for more resilience. “A lasting recovery will depend on the path of the pandemic and largely hinges on being able to mitigate the
headwinds and on a worldwide vaccine roll-out,” said UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan. “The impacts of the COVID-19 crisis will hit small island developing states (SIDS) and least developed countries (LDCs) the hardest,” Grynspan explained. UNCTAD says the pandemic exposed and magnified challenges that already existed in the maritime transport industry, notably labour shortages and infrastructure needs. It raises concern over the continuing pandemic-induced crisis around crew changes, with lockdowns, border closures and
