NEW NE WS
as we would all love to be. We are still experiencing disruptions to our lives, illness, suffering and sadness. “Very disappointing,” indeed. To better understand this particular moment in the pandemic, I talked with data expert Beth Blauer of Johns Hopkins University. She’s been tracking metrics of the pandemic since it started. In the earliest days, she helped build databases, including a widely used COVID-19 tracker, that ultimately became the Coronavirus Resource Center at Hopkins. Those tools get data out to other scientists, health experts, government leaders, journalists and people who want to keep up with the latest numbers. (The interview has been edited for length and clarity.) How solid is the testing data right now in the United States?
The testing data in this country is crumbling. … We’re barely getting data out of the application-based resources that come with home tests. And the home tests are running 10 bucks apiece. That’s cost-prohibitive for people who live below the poverty line. Even middle-income people are not spending $20 for a pack of two. [Free tests are available in the United States, but it’s not known how many of those tests are reaching people who need them.] We are flying blind. Completely. We are in a surge right now, but we don’t even appreciate fully how big of a surge this is. PHOTO BY MILKO VASA/ADOBE
PASSING THE SMELL TEST
A lack of COVID-19 data leaves us in the dark about the current surge. Digital behavior, including negative Yankee Candle reviews — yes, really — can offer clues, but we’re ‘flying blind,’ experts say BY LAURA SANDERS, SCIENCE NEWS
S
cience journalists are accustomed to data. We sift through it and talk it over with experts. We pay close attention to the stories that numbers can tell. But at this point in the pandemic, many of us are having a hard time finding the story. That’s because the numbers aren’t there. Data on coronavirus infections in the United States have become less reliable, many experts say. Fewer people are getting tested, local governments have stopped reporting results, and home test results rarely make it into official counts. [Editor’s note: Speaking locally, a report issued this month by the state auditor general’s office says Floridians spent the first months of the coronavirus pandemic without accurate or complete information. The report looked at data reporting by state health agencies from March to October 2020, and found many reporting flaws, meaning “government officials and the general public may not have had all the information necessary to assess the efficacy of COVID-19 control measures and take appropriate actions.”] To be sure, there are still official numbers to be found, and they don’t look great. Hospitalizations are low compared with earlier in the pandemic, but they’re rising again, and the case counts that do exist are ticking up, too. After dipping in March, the tally in the United States is back up to more than 100,000 known cases a day. A third of Americans now live in places with “medium to high” levels of virus spread. With these not-so-great numbers in mind, it’s not a stretch to assume that the missing data probably wouldn’t tell us a cheery story either. We are almost certainly undercounting cases in the United States. And we’re not alone. Amid worldwide declines
Any guesses?
I have no idea. Anecdotally, I’m sure you and I both know a ton of people who have COVID-19 or who just got over it. All the mitigation strategies are not being spun up to meet the rising demand that a surge, like we’re in right now, calls for, which means we’re just going to be getting a lot more COVID19. People are going on vacations, they’re traveling, graduations, all of these things are just going forward. So yes, we’re seeing some increase in hospitalization, but I don’t think we have any idea how much disease there is in the community. I’ve had trouble gauging my risk from COVID-19 in everyday life. Is that typical?
It’s a mess. I think a lot of people are sensing that. And it dilutes our capacity to have faith in science and in all the things that have happened over time. It is confusing. It’s like, “Oh, we have just as much COVID, but we can go to parties? And school is in?” Everything all of a sudden gets called into question. in testing and sequencing to see where coronavirus is spreading [That uncertainty highlights a] need to really think critically and how it’s changing, “we are blinding ourselves to the evolu- about our public health infrastructure in this country. tion of the virus,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the World Health Organization, said May 22. How should we be living with this virus right now? We’ve never had a perfect count of COVID-19 cases, of We all acknowledge that we need social anchoring in our course. Early on in the pandemic, before testing ramped up in communities. We need to see people. We can’t hide away in our some places, scientists found clues about COVID-19’s transmis- houses forever. But that means we have to think about what it sion in odd places. Wastewater testing, for instance, spotted means to live with a pathogen like COVID-19 out there. And signs of the virus getting flushed down the toilet. That dirty we’re not giving ourselves all the best tools to be able to do that. water continues to be an indirect, but helpful, measure of I work in a building where right down the hall, people are viral loads in a community. Here in Oregon, where I live, some getting chemotherapy. I feel a responsibility to the community wastewater spots again show increases in coronavirus, suggest- that I’m not giving them a disease that could potentially kill ing a surge. them. That’s not happening in a lot of places. For me, it’s sad. Even more indirect measurements can give us additional It’s like a loss of collective empathy, and I don’t think we should hints. Early on in the pandemic, “smart” thermometers con- not talk about that. nected to the internet generated fever data used to map risk of I think I would feel the very same way even if I wasn’t leadgetting sick by region. Internet searches for words and phrases, ing this effort here at Hopkins. But I don’t know. Maybe it’s such as “chills,” “fever” and “I can’t smell,” also pointed to virus because I feel the toll of a million Americans who have died. hot spots. I’ve experienced loss in my life. I do have a lot of empathy. But My favorite digital sign of illness comes from online reviews I don’t think I’m overdoing it. of Yankee Candles. One-star reviews (“No scent.” “Embarrassed as this was a gift.”) tracked neatly with a rise in COVID-19 cases But you’re not saying we should all hunker down and stay in 2020 and the subsequent widespread loss of smell. Just last away from people. week, more one-star reviews showed up, notes Twitter user No. We’re done with that. But we have to start integrating @drewtoothpaste, who compiled the latest complaints. “No and really putting into place these habits [masking, testing and smell.” “Absolutely no scent.” “Very disappointing!!!” adjusting behavior when needed]. Because I think it’s the only These one-star reviews are not airtight evidence of COVID- way we get out of this. 19 rates — not by any stretch. But they add to the broader This interview was first published by Science News. picture that we are not yet done with this pandemic, as much news@orlandoweekly.com orlandoweekly.com
●
JUNE 22-28, 2022 ● ORLANDO WEEKLY
11
