14 minute read
First Impressions of the Lumber Indust"y
there. The mountain pass is ahead. With organization of men and weaDons. it can be taken.
Address by MORTIMER B. DOYLE, Exec.utive Vice-President, National Lumber Manufacturers Association. to Western Pine Association, September t3, t957, Portland, Oregon
When I was asked some time ago by your fine executive of{icer, Van Fullaway, to make a presentation here today, I agreed to do so. However, at that time upon reflection, I got to thinking about my lack of profound knowledge of the many probiems of the lumber industry. Being a proud Irishman, I decided then and there that if I was going to make a talk I rvas going to first learn something about the industry and its problems.
In the past three and a half months I have spent many hours reading, absorbing and listening to all the information I could glean, particularly about the many problems of a merchandising nature besetting the industry today.
Nolv, I did not select the theme, "First Impressions of the Lumber lndustry," l.,ecause it u'as pleasantly innocuous. I selected it because I hope to convev to vou todav mv belief that the lumber inclustry has airived at whai .atr b" the finest hour. the most promising decade, the most dramatic l-ralf-century in its history. This first impression has fsqottte solirl c,,nvictiorr.
Those r,r,ho do not believe this do not believe in their product. I'erhaps ther- could class lumber as a commodity rvith an inevitalrly shrinhing market, doomed to fade from the scene like thc horse-r1r:ru'n buggy.
To me this is a completely false analogy. I see lumber more as a product say, like milk. A product with a nature-given integrity. A product, susceptible like milk, to promotion-lest substitute products or synthetic juices and tired-blood pills and mystic hormones from the laboratories sweep milk from its marketthe American dinner table.
H:rd 1'ou thought of milk being faced rvith competitive inroads? Did vou kn<tu' that the dzriry inclustry's national association is-spendir-rg more than lii'e millioir clollars a ye:ir in advertising' :rnd promotior.r :rlorre to prlt the values of dairy products before the public? I am plunging into the subject of spending money because it is uot irr m1' makeup to stay rvithin the confines of the guarded eencrality. I car-rnot in good conscience srlpport the cantious a<lrroc:rcy of a vague future program far out somel'herc on :r rr:ceding :Lrrrl dimirrislring h,rrizon.
Arrd, when I say merchanclising, I don't necessurily rncan :rdvertising. I'm talking altout a program that rvill reducc barriers to wood ; that l'ill increase architects', school officials' ancl other ke1' people's knorvledge of wood and 'r'rrood's uses; anri ltlso rrse of ziny communications mediir th:rt u'ill sell rnore lrrmber nationally.
The lumber industry has immediate need for a nation-wide merchandising program. And never has an industry had so strategic an opportunity.
We have colne to the mountairrs. \Ve are encamDed about the foothills. Our campfires arc scattcred. Being dispersed, they do not glorv too brightly-,w'hich is all right if rve are defensive and seeking to hide fron.r the et.temy.
Dispersed, yes. But the strength. though scattered, is
\\re need heavy {ire for the break-through-and a joint industry command (regional ar.rd national). I am advocating, in this metaphor, a national rnerchandising program. Once through that pass \\'e can deploy again. The target rvill be slowed. It r,r,ill be rvitliin range of the accuracy of the rifles. I am talking about the greater opportunities for the regional associations and of the species campaigns when brought within effective range of the competition.
In a nutshell, u'hat I am saying in effect is that the industry needs to employ heavy artillery to soften the target so that the crack troops of the \\restern Pine Associaticln can then move in and capture the objectives '"vith well-aimed rifle fire.
My impressions u,ould necessarily be superficial if I had gainecl them simply by communing with myself. Many wise nrcn in this industrv have talked and I have listened. And as I learned more ancl more about the lumber industry from these men and as I studied the record, the facts fell into a straight line l'r'ith an arrow at one end as unmistakable as a marker at the crossroads.
\\re could go back, u'e could go sidervays (perhaps much as \\re are doing now) or we could go straight ahead and cross over the mountains. No industry can stay right where it is. There is an old military maxim credited to Napoleon to the effect that, "The passive defer-rsive is a form of deferred suicide."
Can there be any doubt which lvay we should go?
Let me quote one paragraph from an article in the June issue of the Journal of Forestry. The author quotes a text on marketing research. It says: "An artny commander -who {ailed to consider alternatives to his current disposition of troops until the enemy had attacked would be subjecting
(-West such os this of lorge use of wood for indoor-outdoor living in modern homes will be feotured by the regionol lumber ossociolions in their 1958 cdvertising to lhe consumers in notional rnogoziner. his tror.rps and his position to unnecessary pcril. Similarly, business executives who react only to the aggressive and successful action of competitors or to internal frictions subject their enterprise to unnecessary disadvantages."
Please do not misunderstand me. I am only quoting this as typical of t'hat you all recognize as the same kind of comment you have been hearing for a good many years, rvith the r,oices getting louder each year. These indictments, criticisms and complaints have served a purpose but, from here on out, 'lve should have no part of them. It is not the positive approach that rvill get us rvhere rve rvant to go.
\\rhat Monday morning quarterback can say u,ith any as-
Jonuory 15, t958 surance that five years ago or ten years ago this industry should have taken a certain action, on a national scale and, if the action had been taken, a certain result could have been obtained? I doubt if the action could have been taken that far in the past, and if taken, if it could have been successful.
WOOD STRUCIURAL PARTS ore docorotivc in conleqporory houre (lefi) rhot merger ouidooeindoor living. Wilh more fovorcble FHApprcirolr on conlemporory dcs:gn, it is expected rnore orchilecls ond builders will turn to it.
Photo at righr shows living room of troct hou3o in development opproved by FHA. Hondsome plcnk-ond-beom ceiling gives cxtro heighf lo room; wood-ponclcd wolls carry out efrect of simplicity of nolurol molsrials.
(-Photos by Notional Lumber Monufoclurers Arsn.)
I believe it can be taken efiectively now. And this is why.
In recent years there has been an orderly progression of events in this great industry that now give us the advantage of knowledge, understanding and coherence of purpose.
We have had the benefit of the constructive thinking and practical spadework of recent presidents of the NLMA, and also your own Walter Leuthold, and the directors representing associations such as Western Pine on the NLMA Board.
We have had the Stanford Research Institute report with its projection of lumber's future markets.
We have had the McKinsey Report with its analysis of problems and solutions.
We have had Professor Frey, the marketing specialist, tell us we should have an objective study made on the promotion of lumber.
We have had that studv made bv Professor Scott. marketing specialist of the University of Michigan, and the Report is now being studied.
We have had the benefit of the A.F.P.I.'s recent public interview survey conducted by Opinion Research Corporatlon.
And recently, we have had the benefit of a forecast by A. Kenneth Beg{s of Stanford Research Institute which loncluded that lumber will continue to lose markets in residential construction, in shipping containers and in manufactured products to competing materials.
It is probably true that all this documentation tells you nothing that you didn't already know.
Perhaps the ultimate importance of these reports lies not so much in what they say, but in the fact that the industry took these steps in progressive and orderly fashion, bringing us right up to where we are today-the point of dec1s10n.
The evidence is in.
I have a very strong feeling for which I will not apologize. It is Enthusiasm. I see a wonderful thing ahead, a wonderful road that we may travel.
I have read and heard about what the Western Pine Association has been able to do through the leadership of its Trade Promotion committee. I can-quickly visualiie what the entire industry can do by following the lead of those in our industry who see the value of an all-embracing national program for wood.
Anything I may hear about the factors of species and regional competition does not pull the rug from under this enthusiasm. I have seen this problem in other forms but essentiallv the same. It is not insurmountable.
May this competition live long and flourish. But when it reaches the point where our private shooting wars cause us to turn our backs on the common foe, then it is time for serious discussion and action.
The enemn gentlemen, is not in the forests anywhere in this land. He is not in the sawmills. The living, breathing, shoot-to-kill competition is not in any of these places.
The real competition is on the banks of the Monongahela at Pittsburgh, where Alcoa has spawned the "care-free" aluminum house with two and a half million dollars of oromotion to nourish it.
The real competition is on the Ohio River at Louisville, from where the general sales office of Reynolds Metals is barraging the multi-billion dollar do-it-yourself market with products claimed to be as workable as wood.
The real competition is at U.S. Steel, where they haven't been able to leave wood out of their homes vet-but are still trying.
It is at Youngstown, Ohio, whence flows the word to dealers that they have a strong national advertising campaign to back their kitchens-kitchen units, they tell the public, that will never warp, rot, splinter, swell, rack or absorb odors.
The real competition is at the great plants around Chicago. It is in New York and Buffalo, in St. Louis, Missouri, and Midland, Michigan, and many another city of fabrication of composition materials-materials for which their manufacturers make either one of two claims-that they are just like wood-or they are better than wood. (Sometimes it seems they haven't been able to decide which is the more appealing claim to make).
The real competition is where the planning boards sit in the curtain-wall skyscrapers-it is where the product development teams scout the consumer markets-it is where the New York Madison Avenue ad men conjure words and color and use a multiple of dollars to whet the warm appetite for a cold product.
For example, it was reported in the Congressional Record of July 17, in quoting an editorial from the Eugene, Oregon "Register-Guard" entitled "Modern Techniques Can Help lurnfsl"-that one producer of substitute building materials feels justified in spending more in promoting his products on a ch,annel television show than is being spent by the entire west coast lumber industry in promotion of all kinds.
How much better a job we could do with our product than they can do with theirs-if we set about doing it.
The advertising men tell us that the giants are winning in all the markets. The bigger the impact-the more money it costs-the better the return on the dollar. And we hav-e no comparable giants in lumber. So, we keep on scattering our fire at a target so far away we can't hit it anyway.
We are talking about a national market. \Me are talking about creating a primary demand for wood which will sup-port regional specie campaigns.
A continuing, long-range, potent, consumer-saturating program for wood is the one thing an individual association, even one as strong as yours, can never do alone. And even if it could. wouldn't it be foolish to do so if it could get the financial support of all concerned in the East and Midwest in creating a greater national demand for wood.
' If there is no concerted action-if nobodv does the iobwhat then ? Let me quote the immediate past president of the National Lumber Manufacturers Association-Lawrence Kellogg.
He said: "It's estimated by 1975 there will he 221 million people. Unlike our grandfathers, they will not have the daily contact with wood, and how many of them will know and appreciate wood ? We can't relax on calculations based fn summation, I see the picture this way. For this industry to do the most good for the people in our great land it must grow strong through the combined efforts of all its component parts. You must constantly strengthen your Western Pine Association. You must set aside a much greater portion of your sales dollar in the next ten years than you are now doing if you are to even hope to maintain your present markets, no less recapture old markets or selze new ones.
Now, it has also been said that a strong campaign on a national front will weaken regional associations-that programs and staffs would be threatened. This inhibition, too, ignores the dynamic power of growth, the nourishment that flows into every branch when there is health in the total organism (in tiris case the industry). A tree without leaves, someone has pointed out, is still a tree. But a leaf without a tree is a withered nothing. And the leaf always dies before the tree.
I know people can raise a lot of money and spend a lot of money and get little or nothing for it. That perhaps is the principal deterrent, the main inhibition. Once lumbermen know that the program ofiered is as solid and substantial as can be devised-that it is sound-that it gives a foundation for their continuity of operations and a structure for their long-range planning, then I do not believe we shall longer hear the refrain "we can't afford it."
This is what a leading lumberman, a member of the NLMA board of directors, said recently. "We can't afford a one-cent or a two- or a three-cent dues increase. Nope, we can't afford that. But when lumber starts stacking up in inventory, we can cut it $5 a thousand so fast it makes your head swim-and without blinking an eye."
With o rtriking design colling upon the nolurdl slrcngth ond beoury of wood, o New Orlcans orchitect hos builr himself o houre odaptoble to modcrn living. Simplc in design, commanding ottcntion for itr unique rlyling, irs dramotic Iroolrnenl of wo6d clcorly demonrhdtaa o now potenticl for r|qndord lumber ilcms, fhe hourc is builr in lwo toclioni connccred by o conlcr enlry. Eoch section ig ropped by o roof drol is qctuolly c l2-gobled, l2-poinred plcotcd rtor. There ore iust threc basic froming el.mcntr-wood sheorhinj, rqhcr ond rigid struts. Kcy structurol elarnent i3 ths 1"x5" tonguc-ond-groovc Soulhcrn Pinc roof rhcothing which spcnr lhe roftcrs lo qssume lhe fu4clion of o skin or menbrone that ties togcther oll of rhe roof froming. The exlerior woll seclions ore lopped to rimulotc c boord ond botlcn efiect. By robbening opporing groovcs of the ovorlopping plonk wqllr, thc architect wos oblc to conccsl wircs in o rolid wood wsll. fhe two-inch thick wolls clininatc lhc necd for any furthcr insulcfion. In cddition to the shecthing, the houre concisb almoil cntirely ol 3"x6" ond 2"x4" lumber on baby booms and the assumption that the babies, on reaching a certain age of wisdom and discretion, will buy any lumber and wood products by some natural built-in preference. They will have to be educated on the utility, the beauty and the value of lumber."
As you well know, lumber production per capita has dropped since 1900 from 460 board feet'a yen;r to 23O board feet a year. A 5'0o/s drop in the first 55 years of this 20th century. At this rate of regression, production will be dropping close to 100 board feet per capita by the year 2000.
But I would like to call your attention to the year 1967just ten years away. Assuming this absolute rate continues, it will have dropped to 180 board feet per person by the year 1967.
In that figure hovers a ghost, a symbolio warning. Let's visualize 180 board feet of lumber. ft's exactly enough lumber for the urood used in a casket and the box around it.
I have been told that there are some in the industrv who feel that wood has kept enough markets and will coirtinue to hold on to all the markets that it can comfortably handle. It has been said that if too much demand had been created. the industry could not have met it anyway.
Such thinking ignores a fundamental economic principle -the dynamic processes that are set in motion in production by market demand. Markets are organized from the consumer downward, not from the producer upward.
Exactly what we do, and for how much money, and how it is derived, is in the province of the board of directors of your organization and of NLMA, and in the democratic processes that express the will of the industry. The staff responsibility is then to assure in every detail a program as foolproof and efiective as sound thinking and hard work can yield-and that applies, gentlemen, to NLMA or any organization entrusted with the responsibility of implementing a national wood merchandising plan.
There are many proposals making the rounds as to how this industry can merchandise its products and secure a greater portion of the market. But all the plans in the world will come to naught unless there is determined will to compromise and give and take for the best interests of the entire industry. The market is there. More people are moving to the suburbs. More people with more money can now afford a new home. By f960 the school needs could be fantastic.
This means that all of us, as members of this industry, must do five things:
(1) We must develop a sense of personal responsibility for decisive action.
(2) We must develof the habit of looking objectively at the question of lumber growth and progress. More new ideas and good ideas are killed because someone, somervhere has relied on ready-made opinions and substituted tradition or fear for vision.
(3) We must have courage. We live in a world afraid. The normal tendency is to play it safe. This could wreak havoc with the futufe growth of this lumber industry. We must project higher industry sales objectives than hitherto dreamed of and then find ways and means of achieving those objectives.
(a) We must develop a vivid sense of imagination. We must lift the levels of our thinking to greater horizons. ff we do this we can then begin to visualize the underlying strength of this great industry.
(5) Last-and most importantly-we must have faith in each other. We must seek the basis for trust with open minds-on the national, regional and local levels-if the future is to hold great promise for this industry.
For Betfer Service on fhe Pacific Coosf Phone Your Neorest H&M Oifice
Regionof Sqfes Oilices
New Structurql Components Plont
Structural Laminates, Inc., a manufacturing plant devoted to producing structural panels for construction of roofs, floors and walls, has started in Beaverton, Ore. These will be made in various thicknesses and sizes. Heavy panels for slab floors and structural panels for roof decks for school classrooms, industrial and commercial buildings will be made. The principal in the venture is C. D. Johnson, Jr., with a background in lu,mber, plywood, logging and fabricated specialties, from a family with a long experience in the tim'ber industries. The sales division is headed by Chas. R. Wilson, also
with many years'experience
The plant is completed and in production, with initial production confined to 4x4' Sheathing grade Douglas fir plywood as well as in other species. All thicknesses are being made, including the lr/s'7 thickness now becoming popular for sub-flooring under wall-to-wall carpeting and tiles, supported on beams spaced 4' center to center.
One of the features of this new plant is a tunnel-type drier for drying the veneers, designed and constructed by Forest Products Engineering, Inc. In this drier both veneers and lumber may be dried. This will provide facilities for the manufacture of lumbercore plywood at a later date.
Bennett 2-rt{ay Ponel Sqw Tokes Booth qt SCRLA's April Show
One of the first exhibitors to sign up with Orrie W. Hamilton for space at the Southern California Retail Lumber Association's 41st annual convention and Trade Show this April is the Bennett 2-Way Panel Saw. Wayne C. Ervine, Atascadero, Calif., the local dealer and servicer, will be showing the outstanding product to SoCal retailers in Booth 43 in the Embassy room of the Am'bassador hotel.
(Tell tkem, you sara it in The California Lumber Merchant)
BIG T(IGATI(ITS IlI IIIE GREAIEN EASISIDE IilIIUSIRIII IIISTNrcT
ofrering o complele seryice io the lumber industry in southern colifornio
